*caveat that I don’t believe Purdue is in their own tier despite the undefeated start, I think they’re very gettable and will at best tie for the title
Tier 1 (for now), the favorite(s): Purdue
Tier 2, guaranteed contender: Ohio State
Tier 3, teams that should be taken seriously as contenders but likely won’t be: Wisconsin, Penn State, Rutgers
Tier 4, teams that were sorta supposed to be contenders but aren’t, but could be if obvious problems magically fix themselves: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
Tier 5, teams that just aren’t as good as we thought and will fight to make the NCAAT: Maryland, Iowa
Tier 6, bad, but with a pulse: Northwestern, Nebraska
I like that Wisconsin has played its way to Tier 3 by beating Tier 5 teams
I think I agree that OSU and Purdue feel like they are emerging as better than the rest but sorting through the noise in the middle of the league is difficult.
I also think that tier 4 teams are probably scarier scouts than the tier 3 teams you have listed.
Yeah, I like this. Pretty spot on. Like Dylan notes, that Tier 4 is rough to sort thru. If all 4 of those continue to scuffle its not going to be good for the league, though I think at least a couple of those teams will right the ship.
Fair point re: Ohio State. That just shocked me when I looked up and they had losses to all but one respectable team they played. They could finish anywhere from 2-8 in conference and it wouldn’t shock me
Yeah I’m open to the idea that Rutgers/Wisconsin are fraudulent but idk I trust their cores/coaches more than the more volatile coaches right now and Rutgers really should be 2-0. I know Iowa’s a mess but Wisconsin was pretty impressive in Iowa City to me, and looking back their Atlantis performance was pretty good, shoulda beat Kansas, etc.
I really think Penn State will finish top 4 this year. The MSU win at PSU could be a big one looking back, they have a very clear identity that most of the middle pack teams lack and one of the best guards anywhere in the country. Reminds me of an early era Beilein team.
Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State and one of the tier 3/4 teams I listed in a four-way tie. Wouldn’t shock me if it’s any of Wisconsin/Rutgers/Indiana/Illinois/Michigan/MSU.
Nebraska really should have beaten Purdue at home. They’re undefeated and obviously that’s impressive, the Gonzaga and Duke wins were dominant but that was before anyone realized Edey is actually a danger man.
They’ve covered the spread like once in seven games lately. Wins over Minn and Nebraska. I think they’re gonna hit a dry spell soon - freshmen guards can’t be that consistent.
Wisconsin beating bad teams is exactly how they do what they do. Are they good? Not really. Do they have upside? No. Will they win a bunch of close games against bad teams to keep themselves relevant? Yep…
Wisconsin also doesn’t really have extremely bad losses either. Their worst loss might be Wake but they have also recently beat 2 top 30 KenPom teams as well. They beat a good Marquette team and lost a buzzer beater to Kansas. There’s something to be said for not having an absolute dreadful loss, being a low event team and therefore keeping you in games consistently.
Essegian swings things for them, he’s very good. Wahl/Hepburn/Essegian/Crowl isn’t nearly the talent disparity from any of the mid-tier teams that a lot of people think it is
Yeah, in many ways they are the opposite of Michigan. We are trying to figure out how to fit our role players around potential pros and teach everyone to play consistent, mistake free ball. They have a team full of role players who will never be stars who know how to play mistake free ball and keep them close in every game.
Wisconsin is fine and they are always a tough scout for the way they play, they are good defensively, but they are also incredibly limited offensively even with all of these guys in quote-un-quote great roles.
Tough team to play on any given night but I don’t really understand elevating them to a tier above the middle of the pack teams like MSU, Maryland, Iowa, Penn State, etc.)
Using existing ratings is more beneficial than trying to cherry-pick stats to create a new one. KP accounts for how you perform against good teams, bad teams, how much you win by, etc.
Wisconsin has close losses but it also has two overtime wins, a 1-point win in the 40s, a win over an Iowa team without its best (by far) player, etc.
Not saying that they are a bad team, just that they are in a very similar spot as many other Big Ten teams with a solid foundation but obvious issues.
