I love Essegian
I love kenpom as much as anybody. Iâm not attempting to cherry pick. Using KPâs season-long rankings as a 1:1 cheat sheet to how teams will perform in conference play isnât always accurate.
Maryland being the highest ranked team in that group because they beat Niagara, Western Carolina, Binghamton, Coppin State and Louisville by 20+ each in November does not mean they are a better team than anyone else on that list right now.
If memory serves, we did this last year with Wisconsin too. Weâre talking about likelihood to compete in conference, not likelihood to finish top 10 in kenpom.
Where are Rutgers and Indiana on your Big Ten tiers? KP loves them.
2 Likes
At the same time wouldnât you evaluate them based on how they do against that tier? Yes itâs still early but theyâre also 2-0 vs that group. You can pnly play the team in front of you.
1 Like
Wisconsin shared the Big Ten title last year but they werenât the best team in the Big Ten by anyoneâs imagination.
The difference between Wisconsin and Illinois/Purdue was that Wisconsin played four games against the two awful teams in the league and Illinois and Purdue played 1.
Wisconsin was still less than +3 pts/100 poss last year in league play with the easy schedule.
Thereâs a reason that Wisconsin got bounced in the BTT and bounced in the NCAA Tournament.
Iâm not really thinking about tiering Big Ten teams based on conference standings because Iâm not looking at schedules right now. More trying to identify which teams are actually good.
I think teams like Illinois, Rutgers, and Indiana probably have a ton more upside in the Big Ten season so I think the KenPom ratings are worth looking at in this case.
2 Likes
They lost in the same round as Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Advanced further than Iowa and Rutgers. Credit to Purdue for making it one round further before losing to a 15-seed 
Using NCAAT results as some sort of confirmation that Wisconsin was worse than the league makes no sense.
Do you have Maryland as the best team in that group of middle of the pack teams this year then because KP likes them most right now?
The confirmation that Wisconsin was worse than the other contenders is that every measure says they were worse than the other teams.
Their record was better because they had 2 extra free squares (and lost one!).
I donât think thereâs a great way to separate those middle teams. The difference in 2 or 5 KenPom spots is really small.
I think it is interesting that teams like Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana that have maybe accomplished a bit less or arenât viewed in the same light are actually ranked 20 spots higher though.
The KP stuff also says to buy heavy into Ohio State, which I think matches the eye test.
Either way, maybe thereâs a case that Wisconsin is actually good but re-hashing a specific set of their results doesnât feel like the right way. They are good defensively, but I think Rutgers is way better. What makes Wisconsin a 2nd tier team for you? Their results in close games?
Side note: That Maryland trend is 
Iâd elevate Wisconsin ahead of the underachievers group of ILL/IU/Mich/MD because they have been way better against good competition than everyone in that group.
Wins @Marquette and @Iowa are good wins. 2-1 in Atlantis was a good result and was nearly 3-0.
Illinois has a higher ceiling (UCLA and Texas wins hold up) but theyâve also had total no-shows against good teams, as have every other Big Ten team except for Purdue and Wisconsin.
It doesnât matter to me as much as it does to Kenpom if you beat a cupcake team by 15 or by 50. Iâm much more interested in what teams do against quality opponents and I believe Wisconsin has been very good in all those games except the Wake loss.
Hopefully this year we have our head coach heading down the final stretch of the season
Also screw Wisconsin and forever hate Greg Gard
Using deep analysis: Wisconsin stinks unobjectionablely
I like Wisconsin this year. Iâve changed my tune. I think Gard is a fine coach and theyâll be in the chase with Purdue.
3 Likes
Hasnât Iowa been pretty bad for awhile now? Plus that was without Kris and maybe someone else I think. Which means Wisconsin is a tier above the other teams cause of two games (Marquette and Kansas) and kind of Dayton (a 1 point game in the 40s) and USC, both of which are just ok
Illinois has 2 massive top 10 wins. IU winning at Xavier is better than winning at Marquette
Wonât really argue MSU or Mich on a results level but those two teams are much more talented so they could figure some things out
I think the point is that while Wisconsin has some good results thereâs not much reason to put them in their own tier unless you are predicting that they are clearly better than all those teams, which I canât do
It was without Kris and Ulis. Def not a top 10 win or anything but they had just blown out a top 25 Iowa State team three days before that without Kris.
USC win was also good. Dayton solid. Iâm moreso impressed that they havenât been beaten soundly by anyone. Two losses by four points. Everybody else in the conference has laid a massive egg somewhere and lost by 20+.
Maybe thatâs just a product of style of play, but Kansas was up big on them early and could have easily won huge but they battled.
Yeah I mean thatâs what Wisconsin does. Theyâll keep every game close for better or worse
1 Like
Craziest thing about Wisconsin to me is that they are the 25th most accurate 3-point shooting team in college basketball but are only ranked 77th in Adj Off.
2 Likes
Yes they were. Along with one other team.
They just werenât. Winning the W/L title with an unbalanced schedule is not a great way to judge who is the âbestâ team in the league. This is only going to become more skewed as the conference expands.
Itâs a great achievement and itâs what you play for. You get a banner for a reason, but it isnât justification to say that a team is the best in the league.
There are so many different and better ways to judge that.
1 Like
To me, personally, this is dangerously close to losing the plot. People who forget the one measurement that matters the most include the Illini athletic director, Illinois fans, and, hopefully, nobody else.
1 Like
We donât just say that the team that wins the Big Ten Tournament is the best team in the Big Ten.
Winning the regular season title is an accomplishment, not a measure of how good a team is.
Similar example of this is Michigan 2012. Michigan shared the Big Ten title with OSU and MSU but everyone would agree that those two teams were better.
2 Likes
Nah, the fact that the best teams donât always win is what makes sports great. Winning is whatâs most important at the end of the day, donât think anyone is gonna argue otherwise.
Beilein and Michigan managing to share a Big Ten title with KP #2/#3 OSU/MSU and edging out #8/#9 Wisconsin/Indiana in 2012 was awesome. Honestly hanging a banner in seasons where you over achieve is just as cool and fun as when you actually are the best team.
8 Likes
Weâll of course this is the correct and only answer. Maybe Dylanâs in favor of hanging a âHighest Kenpom Ranking at the End of the Yearâ banner. Of course, are we trying to parse who the âbest teamâ is? I guess, even in the world of unbalanced schedules, when you win more games than everybody else YOUâRE THE BEST TEAM.
I think I just assumed the point of the âwhat tiers would you haveâ discussion was pointing toward a more subjective conversation toward what teams are likely to win B1G games. If itâs just who is better on kenpom, I donât have any differing opinion from what kenpom says.
1 Like