Big Ten Basketball 2021-22 Discussion

Unfortunately we awoke that mess of a program.

Amazingly we had won 9 in a row and 4 straight at their arena.

I think it’s gonna be hard to keep sweeping them like we had been doing.

I agree. But of course all our academic hurdles and righteousness kinda neuter him in that regard.

We could be a powerhouse if that restriction stuff stopped.

I liked our Indiana streak too but if I had to choose between MSU and Indiana at the top of the B1G it’s an easy choice

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indiana will show up versus us. Against msu, they will roll over.

You need to asterisk this entire first paragraph and say “except for John Beilein” :smiley:

I’m not really worried about IU. What about them says they’re way above us in modern cbb stuff? Am I missing something? I’m sure they’ll be better than they have been but im not worried about them moving a tier above us

I’m just saying in order for Izzo to be washed it means someone has to pass him and Indiana seems like a candidate. If Izzo ever fell systemically behind Rutgers or Minnesota or something then yeah he would be 100% toast

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here is the @ReegsShannon spreadsheet btw

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I’m just about to update it to move Caleb and Moussa

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Beilein was utterly incredible at finding NBA talent adjusting for recruiting rankings. I wrote that thinking of him.

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It’s a pretty interesting chicken and egg thing with Beilein. Obviously he was incredible at finding undervalued recruits. At the same time, was he uncovering hidden “talent” or was the talent developing in Ann Arbor? In other words, if some of the guys he recruited that weren’t highly touted that turned out to be NBA players, do you think it’s at all because of JB? Would DJ Wilson have been a first round pick if he spent those first two years elsewhere before his blow up year? I guess the answer is probably somewhere in the middle and different depending on which player you’re talking about. I think it’s clear that you have to have a pretty talented roster to have a great deal of success, but there are many different ways to put together a talented roster.

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I think it was the scouting. Always been of that belief. That and his system made the development appear to be the best

The reason I believe that is he got in early on a lot of these guys then they moved up rankings. As well as some of the guys he recruited but missed on were very good (like Larry Nance or Bones Hyland)

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Saw elsewhere that Beilein was supposedly talked out of taking Nance. Took Bielfeldt instead.

Not true and wrong Nance

Max was being recruited at the same time as Larry Nance Jr.

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No doubt the scouting was elite. I just think the player development on campus was also elite and that gets a bit lost in the shuffle sometimes.

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Don’t forget Klay Thompson

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Yep exactly this. The best test of Beilein development would be matching a Beilein target’s propensity to go to Michigan with like individuals and then looking at those who do and those who don’t as a treatment. I doubt that’s really doable? But Beilein was pretty rigid in how he showed you you were on his board so it’s maybe possible? Short of that, taking a holistic view, it’s pretty clear he was wildly good at ID’ing talent. Juwan should hire him just to scout.

And IMO the view that it’s development even without that evidence is obviously the more complicated one a priori. Why should coach effects be much larger than kid effects when the kid coached himself for 18 years and Beilein + Kid interaction was often 2 years or fewer. I don’t feel at all obligated to start from “well obviously it’s coaching”.

I’m also familiar w the education literature and teaching effects tend to be very small and short lived. I think that’s a very reasonable prior.

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If anything the opposite view is typical.

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It’s both. I mean, he got a non-NBA player and a fringe NBA player conference POTY awards (one a NPOY award!) and lottery slots!

That’s who I meant. Lawrence Nance.