This is exactly the opposite of what I’m arguing. Murray projects way better to the NBA because he can be a No. 4 or no. 5 option and has great measurables. Garza was an incredible college player but an awful fit for the NBA because he can’t really fit into any role other than go-to scorer and defensive liability.
The difference is that one of those things is way more valuable to a college team than an NBA team.
A really good college program values the same things as an NBA team. So maybe you are right that Garza > Murray for Iowa. For Michigan, if we had to replace Hunter Dickinson with one of the two, I would argue Murray > Garza.
The concept I’m referring to with drafting and roster building has more to do with how the NBA works (draft, free agency, contracts) vs. how college basketball works (recruiting, transfers, early entry). There are draft spots, contract values, etc. where you know you are never going to get a primary option.
Murray would be an incredibly useful piece for Michigan, just more useful to replace Brandon Johns than Hunter Dickinson.
Just like Eli Brooks is very useful for Michigan but maybe wouldn’t be as useful as a 25% usage guy for Northwestern.
Who is “better” is just tough to define because role and usage is so contextual. It is far easier to compare guys who are asked to do similar things or have similar usage and then compare them IMO.
Yeah I don’t really think he’s going to be the #3 or 4 option I was just quoting what Dylan had said. They’re going to be pretty bad so he’s probably going to put up a lot of shots by default.
He might be the No. 1 or No. 2 option and we all think Iowa is going to be pretty bad. That’s kind of what I was getting at. I don’t really think he’s an ideal or natural high usage option. He’s still young though so maybe he transformed my game.
I think the way to think about it is a player is his O and D ability times his usage on both ends. Garza is a superior offensive player to Murray but in the NBA neither is gonna get significant usage on O bc they’re not nearly good enough compared to NBA defenders. And Garza is crap on D while Murray is not. And in the NBA, Garza will get hunted on D, magnifying the problem. Murray won’t. The talent level of the NBA shifts the usage away from what Garza does well to what he does poorly and vice versa for Murray. But at the college level, Garza is clearly who you’d rather have.
It’s important to remember that Bates will play most of this upcoming season as a 17-year-old, and his age is the reason he won’t be eligible for the NBA draft until 2023. He’s more than seven years younger than teammate DeAndre Williams, has no real experience at the position he’s being asked to play, and has basically never been coached.
I like Keegan Murray as a draft prospect. If he can get his 3 point shot a little better, he projects as a Robert Covington type 3 and D player at the next level. His rebounding (O and D), block, and steal numbers are all very impressive and profile well towards the NBA. Just needs a bit better outside shooting, and considering his FT shooting was solid he can probably get to be decent.
That said he is more of a complementary player in college and I would expect him to put up numbers in the realm of maybe 14 points and 8 boards a game this year.