True, but there’s no way we get past Kansas without McGary scoring 25 on 12-17 shooting in that game. And that’s precisely my point - having a big man who can score that efficiently is a huge advantage.
I would like to note that your note on my note was a good note.
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The UK and Duke teams both had a wing one and done drafted top 10.
Yes it is helpful to have a Star big man, because it is helpful to have star players.
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Davis was Kentucky’s leading scorer, and he shot .623 from the floor. And that’s my point - having a big man who can score so efficiently like that is absolutely huge. Okafor averaged 17.3 a game and shot 66.4% from the floor.
I think usage is exactly the wrong stat here. I’m focused on efficiency, and what a huge advantage it is to have a freshman big man who can score 15-17 a game with such a high shooting percentage.
Aside from a few truly transcendent players - Carmelo, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Zion - I think the vast majority of freshmen wings and guards are not really capable of being the primary scoring option on championship teams. (And query whether we should even classify Zion as a “wing,” since he probably made 90% of his shots from within five feet of the basket). For me, I’d much prefer to get 2-3 years out of guys like Trey Burke and Nik Stauskas than one year of (for example) a Josh Christopher, unless you’re adding that guy to an already veteran team.
The point to me is rather simple. There are certain really talented big men who, as freshmen, you can count on to score 15-18 a night, and do it really efficiently, whereas when it comes to wings and guards, that’s extremely rare.
The sad part is that you don’t realize how badly you are picking and choosing things to fit your narrative. You say that Michigan couldn’t have gotten past Kansas without that game from a stud freshman big, yet you keep citing that Duke won a National Championship on Okafor’s back.
There is no way Duke gets past Wisconsin without Tyus Jones going for 23 points and 5 rebounds on 7 of 13 shooting. Okafor got badly outplayed by Kaminsky.
There is no way Duke gets past Utah without Justise Winslow going for 21 points and 10 rebounds vs Utah. Okafor had nearly as many turnovers (4) as points (6).
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You are dwindling down the sample size to ridiculous levels when you only focus on freshmen on championship teams. You really think that is the best way to determine how impactful freshmen guards/wings vs freshmen bigs can be in year 1?
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It’d be easier to sit the conversation out if it was a private conversation, and while I appreciate hearing the initial points from you and LA, hasn’t this particular dialogue run its course?
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I’m not suggesting every freshman big man is great. Of course that’s far from the case.
I’m not suggesting teams that win championships don’t need a lot of good players, or that Okafor (for example) was great in every single game, while his teammates weren’t. Not at all.
I’m merely saying that when you find the right big man, getting a guy who can give you 15-17 points a night while shooting a really high percentage from the floor is an extremely valuable asset.
Some freshmen big men have been able to do that right off the bat. Okafor and Davis were two examples. Guys like Ayton and DeMarcus Cousins are other examples.
I really haven’t seen too many freshmen guards do that. They might score a lot, but it often comes with relatively low shooting percentages, or high turnovers.
In my view, the best college guards are often the guys who stay 2, 3, and even 4 years. Guys like Trey Burke, Cassius Winston, Ty Lawson. Those players, to me, are usually better college players and more valuable than younger guys who go higher in the draft, often based on potential more than production. For example, compare Cole Anthony and Cassius Winston. Anthony will be a high lottery pick, while Winston may be a second rounder at best. But I’d take Winston this year, all day long. I’ll bet that same comparison does not hold true if we compare Vernon Carey to other, more experienced college big men. I’ll bet Carey turns out to be the best big man in college this year, and Wiseman perhaps a close second.
I see Kessler as a guy who, with the right coaching, can be one of those highly efficient, 15-17 points per night big men. On the other hand, to find a point guard or wing to do that (efficiently), I think it’s very tough.
I guess perhaps a simple way of saying this is that among five star players, I think big men generally have a higher freshman ceiling than guys who play other positions.
Sorry, there’s obviously no way for me or anyone else to predict whether a certain topic is interesting or boring to any given person. It’s early August, there are no official visits coming up in the near future, no recruits making decisions in the near future, no games until November, so throw something else out there for discussion.
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RSCI is on b-r:
in case you want to be a little broader in approach than arguing about whether like 10 dudes won a ship or not
I’ve heard it plenty of times, often starting with the point that bigs rely on guards feeding them. Could be an old-wives tale or somesuch, but there’s been no shortage of opportunities to hear stuff like that over the years from the color guy, etc.
The first crystal ball prediction for a 2020 recruit for Michigan came in for Lance Ware this week. However 6 others are still In Kentucky’s camp (83% Kentucky and 17% Michigan). We have a long way to go before feeling good about any of the potential 2020 Top 50 recruits, but this is a start!!
https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitution/Lance-Ware-at-Camden-203339/CurrentExpertPredictions/
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I feel like this is the best summation of your argument. Whether it equates to championships, team efficiency, defensive metrics as a team…that’s the other side of it that is completely questionable and probably not even related.
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It is a better summation, but still cherry picking. Winston is the first returning 1st team AA guard in like 20 years. Yeah everyone would take Winston over Anthony, but there’s no big man equivalent of Winston around anywhere to compare. The big man comp to Winston would be like a Tyler Hansbrough, and you should/would take 4th year Hansbrough over any freshman big man.
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Burke and Brunson are two more examples of similar players. Both were extremely productive, but neither was a one and done guy, and neither was an efficient star as a freshman.
Similarly, I’m willing to bet Xavier Simpson has a better year than DJ Carton, even though Carton is the better long term prospect by a mile.
Except Burke was awesome as a freshman. And was very close to leaving after one year. Had he been playing now, good chance he leaves
He was really good as a freshman, but took a big step as a sophomore (obviously, he won NPOY). Why do you think he would be more likely to go pro after one year now? Tons of guys were leaving after one year in the 2013 timeframe too.
Evans forgot about Zeb being committed but it’s cool we got to read about some of the guys and where Michigan might stand.
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Scooby got a mention, that’s interesting. Doesn’t really seem like a Juwan type. Did he show some growth in his game on the circuits?
I’d just like to comment, as one of those who expressed a growing worry about Juwan’s recruiting priorities, that I am extremely relieved (and excited!) that visits are now materializing. The lack of explicit plans around visiting was the key thing feeding my paranoia. I can now rest easy…all the upside we hoped could be true with Juwan and recruiting is still on the table!
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