Wonder what his thinking is.
Probably that we have Christopher and Todd.
With Christopher, Todd and Livers, Michigan would’ve been like a 3 seed at a minimum. 6 seed isn’t unreasonable for the current roster if he assumes Livers will be back. Without Livers, it will be a grind.
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If Livers comes back, he’s roughly in line with other predictions (Bart Torvik, ESPN); if he doesn’t, I am sure the prediction will be adjusted downward. There is very recent precedent for a Big Ten team constructed as we would be with Livers next year performing at that level, namely, OSU ‘18–a team with very good forwards, low usage guards without any depth there (if you think we’re thin at guard next year, note that Andrew Dakich played 19 minutes per game for that team), and a talented, but largely immobile 5 (Wesson before his body transformation).
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With Christopher, Todd AND Livers you’re gunning for a 1 seed.
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That comp only works if you think franz Wagner is KBD and that UM as constructed can be top 20 in defense.
Don’t agree—I think Livers would be better than Tate, so even if KBD was better than Wagner, it would, or could, come out about even. I also think our depth would be better than was that of OSU. And actually, I think there is a real chance that Wagner could perform at KBD’s level, especially if Livers is back to take pressure off. Defense—I have questions, but then again, I had questions about OSU in ‘18 with Kam Williams, who had been a turnstile before then, freshman Keith Wesson, and a healthy dose of Andrew Dakich.
I am not saying that Michigan will perform at that level, merely that the rating right now is reasonable and the construct can succeed. The notion that a college team cannot succeed without playmaking guards is not borne out empirically. There are other examples.
Jae’Sean Tate was really good. And perfect for their team because he could play a point forward type role that took playmaking weight away from their guards.
OSU’s depth was really bad, no doubt. But their top 6 guys were very very good. For our top 6 to reach that level we need Dickinson and Smith to be legit Big Ten guys immediately. And a big jump from Franz and a moderate one from Livers
I agree with you, playmaking guards are not necessary. But playmaking is. We’ll see where that comes from for Michigan. That OSU team had Tate, CJ and KBD for that.
You are remembering a different version of Jae’Sean Tate than I remember. He might have had a few assists but I would have never called him a point forward. He was a 6-foot-4 power forward who tried hard as hell but could never shoot.
Point forward is a stretch, you’re right. But he was a very good passer from my memory. We haven’t had a secondary player sniff an 18% AST rate since Zak Irvin
I just think that says more about offensive system than individual ability. Playing in a ball dominant PNR scheme is going to leave a lot of assists for one player.
Playing in a system that is designed more around off ball movement, interior passing, post-ups, etc. without a good point guard is going to lead to a lot of guys with moderate assist numbers.
It isn’t like Tate was playing effectively out of ball screens or anything like that.
I understand that. This year we’re sure to see more guys around 20% than just having X or DWalt at 40% just by default. Overall we do need a KBD more than we need a Jae’Sean Tate. Easier to get assists if you’re passing to the best player in the conference.
But yeah I’d say the bigger difference between 18 OSU and what I project for Michigan this year is defense. Holtmann seems like he can whip together a top 30 defense pretty easily. Also Tate and KDB were extremely versatile defenders. If Michigan can be a top 30 defense they’ll be a top 30 team, I just have my doubts that will happen.
Yeah, I think expecting Michigan to be one of the more surprising teams of the last few years (thanks to a POY type of performance from KBD) is probably not all that realistic. Wasn’t trying to argue that U-M was going to be OSU 18 but I do at least see some of the roster similarities (lumbering freshman big, PG questions, potentially two talented combo forwards who you would rank OSU, UM, UM, OSU).
That was a weird year in the Big Ten depth wise but I don’t see many teams in this year’s Big Ten that are as good as some of the best teams in the Big Ten that year.
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No doubt next year’s BT will be different than '18, and I’m not saying that Michigan will be equivalent to the '18 OSU team. That, however, was a top 20 team and a 5 seed–thus predicting Michigan to be a step below (solid tournament team in the 6-9 seed range) if Livers comes back is not at all farfetched IMO. Actually, the main purpose of the post was o point out that teams constructed through talented combo forwards can succeed, perhaps not as easily as those with guards who create, but nonetheless certainly within the realm of reasonableness.
Let’s look at it another way.
If Livers returns, we have two future NBA guys on the roster with him and Wagner, both of whom averaged double figures in points this year. I think Franz makes a big leap in year two, similar to what our best sophomores have done over the last ten years. I think there’s a solid chance Franz scores 16-17 a game, and Livers 15-16 a game. I also think Franz will be a creator for others, something we saw him do more and more this year as the season went on.
Is there even another Big Ten team next year that returns a duo as good as those two?
Next, we have Brooks. He’s not a superstar, but he averaged 10.6 a game, shot .364 from three, and has a lot of experience. With Z out at Nebraska, Eli had 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists. It’s not unreasonable to think that with the ball in his hands much more this year, he could average 12-13 a game.
After that, you have a roster with five more top 100 recruits (Johns, Bajema, Zeb Jackson, Dickinson, Williams), and a solid transfer in Smith.
Finally, Austin Davis. His per 40 minute averages are 18.3 and 9.7, and he shot .693 from the floor. He now enters this season with a much different mindset, knowing his coach believes in him, knowing he can play at this level, and knowing he’s going to be counted on to contribute. It would not shock me at all if he kicked in 8-9 points, 5-6 rebounds, and shot a high percentage again.
I’m not saying we will win the Big Ten - though I don’t think it’s out of the question either - but I do think we’re among the most talented teams in the conference and I’d say a projected 6 seed makes sense.
Right now, I would have Iowa and Wisconsin at the top, and then I think MSU, Michigan, OSU, and possibly Rutgers (if they can keep it going - it’s a far different experience when you become the target) make up 3-6.
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Always a fan of the guy needs to return to school but if he does he’s an NBA player thought process.
Michigan’s issues next year are far more related to roster composition and holes with how the pieces fit together (playmaking, interior defense, ball screen defense) than individual this number of players are good sort of logic.
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I don’t understand your first sentence. Was it sarcasm? I think Livers would stick somewhere if he stays in the draft. Franz probably would too, though I think NBA teams would like to see him shoot much better from distance.
But we’ve also had several examples at Michigan of guys who have come back as sophomores and elevated their games significantly. Morris, Burke, Stauskas, etc. I think Franz will do that.
I completely understand the roster composition point, but talent also matters. If we had Z returning at point guard, I’d probably pick this team to win the Big Ten, even if our two guard situation could be better.
With talent, roster composition issues can become non-issues. There is certainly the potential for either of Zeb or Bajema to become key contributors more quickly than we think, or Dickinson to really develop under Juwan’s guidance, or Johns to play with confidence every game and become a double digit scorer.
Heading into 2017/18, there were many people who felt Simpson may not be a Big Ten caliber player (and his freshman year did not do much to dispel that), the other options at PG were a grad transfer (Simmons) and a true freshman (Brooks), and our starting PG (MAAR) was maybe the 4th or 5th option the year before and did not even average double figures in points. The other “key” guy we were relying on was a transfer from Kentucky who had mediocre numbers there as a freshman. Duncan and Mo were the best returning players (maybe MAAR over Duncan, 50/50).
And all we did was win 33 games and play for the NCAA title.
Yes. Referring to Isaiah Livers. Not just directed at you, but in general how fans think.
Biggest questions are just: who dribbles and who can anchor the defense at the five? There are many candidates for either role.
Gotcha. I was going to say, if you look back at my posts over the past few years (not that you would want to, LOL), I’m usually far more bullish on the draft prospects of Michigan players than most. (You may recall me predicting Poole was a two year player and MAAR would have to play well to keep his job as a senior). I always thought DJ Wilson would get drafted, same with Iggy and Poole. And I think Livers would fit in perfectly on a team like the Rockets. I was even confident Matthews, due to his athleticism and defense, could make a roster or at least get a two-way deal.
As far as our upcoming season, let’s look at it differently for a second - I’ll bet there are a lot of Big Ten coaches (including your guy Painter) who would trade rosters with us.
I think there is an open question as to how effective Livers and Brooks (less Wagner in my mind) are as scorers without a top tier PG getting them shots. Livers at least put the ball on the floor and worked into other shots sometimes (maybe very few), but Eli was very challenged to score if he got run off his spot-up.