Will be 19 in approximately a month
Matt, just curious, when you cite playersā heights, I notice you usually deduct an inch or more from their listed heights. Is this to account for shoes and/or the tendency of schools to exaggerate heightā¦ or are you making specific player-by-player estimates based on having seen them in person?
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Nothing scientific about itā¦just based on my general knowledge along with exaggeration, shoes, etc. Does anyone really think Doyle is 6ā9? I think we all know heights are generally exaggerated by 1-2 inches.
Seems especially to apply to bigs and sub-6-foot PGs. Seeing our bigs vs Hammons, it was pretty clear there was more than a 2-3 inch difference there.
If they are able to win 23 or 24 games without 1 NBA caliber player, playing in the BIG, that would be quite an accomplishment! The one player that has potential in my opinion is Wagner simply because he is all of 6-10 and can actually move well laterally. Long ways to go on D obviously, but he can move.
MAAR has become my favorite player because of his toughness! He is becoming a nice college player, but I donāt see any NBA athletic ability.
Have to disagree there, Mo does not move well laterally. In fact, he struggles in that area. Heās got decent straight line speed for a big, but his quick twitch ability is lacking.
We will have to agree to disagree. I think he struggles with the mental part of where he should move laterally, but if you watch him in the BIG tourney he actually is quite capable of doing it when he knows where he is going. Compared to Donnell, Doyle, and Wilson it is night and day. Certainly not much to compare to athletically but he is light footed compared to them.
Toledo - I was limiting my assessment of Mo in the NBA context, his lateral movement is nowhere near good enough to be competent at that level IMO. Probably below average in the college context as of right now. We just need him to be average with lateral movement.
Agreed, here is the shot chart and heatmap for a guy like Redick
http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=200755
Compare it to Duncan Robinson who has taken 73% of his shots behind the arc, in other words heās a designated 3 point shooter. Robinson still has time to improve but if heās truly 6ā8 who would he guard at the next level, heās not strong enough to guard 4s, heās not quick enough to guard 2s and 3s and doesnāt have the handle to play the 2 or 3.
I looked at his stats after I made my post, and youāre probably right, he does score a fair amount of points from two point field goals, so heās not just a specialist. With that said, he was really bad in that Houston series last year and in my opinion, a main reason why they lost. But he seems to be having a good year again.
The comparison to Glenn Robinson is kind of pointless. Of course Glenn Robinson is a far superior athlete, but he canāt shoot, as heās proving in the NBA after he proved it in college.
Again, I am looking at Duncan as simply a three-point specialist. He has a very, very good three-point shot, and he also has two more years to develop. The fact that he struggled to get open in the Big Ten doesnāt tell me much for at least a few reasons. One, we have no other guy on our team right now that can create space so that Duncan can spot up for open looks. Two, Big 10 teams grab and hold all game long, and that rarely happens in the NBA. A guy like Steve Novak, at a similar height as Robinson, has had a long NBA career just shooting three-pointers. I am not saying thereās any sort of guarantee Duncan can stick in the league, just that NBA teams often find a spot for guys who can shoot it like he can.
Dickie V said during the Maryland game back in January that Duncan would be an NBA player, because there is always a place in the NBA for elite shootersā¦wonder if heād care to re-assess since heās no longer shooting close to 60% haha.
For the record, Iām also in the camp that there are no players on this team that will play a minute in the NBA.
And I donāt blame anyone who stopped reading my post as soon as they saw āDickie V saidā¦ā
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Wagner could easily be in high school. When I think about his potential and physical development I try to a) compare him to current high school seniors and b) remember he has not lifted weights until recently.
I think the lateral speed would be a huge issue if never gets the size of a true center (7ā and 260 would be great). If he gets to 7ā and 250 he will go to the NBA. Too much potential. McGary was an old man compared to him. Josh Jackson is older nowā¦ a lot of the current h.s.seniors who were held back are older.
JJ Redick is at least an average NBA defender, probably a bit above average.
Honestly, the player with the best chance on this team of being in the NBA is Mo Wagner. I donāt want people to misunderstand me, He isnāt close to being ready now, but I think he has some tools (like Quickness, Smarts, Motor, toughness) and he is still only 18 years old. If he can develop over the next 2 or 3 years then he could be a NBA Player. You could make an argument for Duncan or Aubrey if they Develop a lot next year because NBA covets shooters. But each of them have their own issues that needed to be corrected or at least get a decent amount better at.
Derrick Walton is short for the NBA, there are short PGās in the NBA, but they generally have to be a truly special player. He also turns the ball over way too much for a NBA PG and has trouble finishing at the rim which will the competition will only get bigger and stronger in the NBA, so I donāt see that magically going away.
MAAR can occasionally beat people off the dribble in college, but he would need to show that on a far more regular basis. He isnāt a true PG and isnāt a strong shooter. He also has the disadvantage that he is very old for his class. He is 21 now (will be 22 before the start of his Junior year). That is kind of scary for NBA teams because they usually think the kid wonāt develop as much.
Irvin window was this year. He needed to step up his game and show that he could be the head honcho once Levert went down. That didnāt happen. He had a few good moments, but overall it was a pretty lackluster year. He canāt beat people off the dribble enough, forces the ball too much, is too predictable and his shot is too inconsistent. I think he will get a shot (late 2nd round or FA), but I donāt see him sticking with a team.