This is very well-said.
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In fairness I think the standard/expectation for the program under Amaker was bubble/NIT whereas the standard under Beilein is bubble/bubble+ (pending this year of course). In essence weâre dealing with a slight upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.
Just think we need to give proper standing to where the program is, and where it was, in order to have good dialogue about whether Beilein is the right guy moving forward/our standing to other programs.
Thatâs fair. But Amaker went 0/6, getting into the tournament, and never won the B1G. JB is 6/9, with an elite 8 and National runner up; and he also won the B1G 2/9. I get that our recent success has been lacking, and recency matters more for determining future expectations, but âbubble/bubble+â doesnt seem like a fair standard synopsis.
Regardless, though, like @bacon141 said, JB showed us success, so 3 years of mediocrity will be difficult to stomach. And it will be a trend.
I understand what youâre saying but until Michigan wins a road game in the conference fans will be skeptical of this team. They will have their chances against MSU/Indiana/Minnesota/Rutgers/Northwestern/Nebraska. How many of those games do you think they get? I say 1 for sure Rutgers, maybe 1 of Minnesota/Nebraska.
As for MSU 20 straight years of the NCAA tournaments, NCAA Tournament, numerous Final Fours heâs built up cred. Beilein after these past couple years has killed a lot of goodwill.
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What kind of goodwill are you referring to?
A couple NCAA Tournament runs followed by 0 tournament wins the next couple years. This year they most likely donât have a long tourney run in them with his most experienced team ever.
Beileinâs elite seasons are acknowledged certainlyâŚunfortunately all it does is balance out his horrible seasons. Both are outliers on a macro level, and the norm is bubble/bubble+ .
Just no way to get around the fact that the typical Beilein season is a 9-10 conference win team that is generally a bubble/bubble+ outfit.
The question becomes are you satisfied with that, or do you think that the trajectory indicates we improve?
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This is why this season really hurts, it doesnât have the same youth/injury caveats that the last 2 seasons do.
Thatâs not goodwill, thatâs their record (albeit framed in a way that ignores their win against Tulsa last year) which you believe has led to the killing of a lot of goodwill.
So you include Tulsa as a NCAA Tournament win last year? Would you be satisfied with a repeat trip this year and another win in the play-in game?
Our two good out-of-conference wins are holding up â SMU is 33 in RPI and Marquette is 54. Both are higher in kenpom and seem to be trending up. Would be nice if Marquette could crack the top 50 and SMU the top 25 by the end of the year.
Also, 6 of our losses have been to RPI top 50 teams, 4 to top 25 teams, with Iowa at 103.
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Would you feel the same way if Michigan lost the Tulsa game? Maybe you would.
To answer your question, would I have been satisfied with the same outcome as 2016 in 2017? At the beginning of the season, no. At this point in the season, perhaps. The teamâs dug themselves a hole, no doubt. Can they get themselves out? Weâll see. There are lots of reasons teams win or lose individual games, too, so donât discount the eye test. Theyâve also been fairly lucky on the injury front this season. If that changes, it may change how some of us judge this team from that point forward.
Who wouldâve thought that DJ Wilson is the player we can least afford to lose to injury (maybe thatâs Mo, but regardless, still crazy)?
No, itâs DJ. Closest thing to a legit 2 way B10 starter on the roster.
I agree, since our backup 4s are Duncan and Zak.
Realize I may be alone in this, but I am constantly frustrated that Walton doesnât also fall under this category. I think he absolutely could, as in his defensive shortcomings are mental, rather than physical limitations.
I really thought the ND game, last year, would be a turning point. He showed how suffocating he could be, and how active his hands could. He also locked down KoenigâŚexcept for the mental gaffes at the most pivotal timeâŚso frustrating.
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Walton is the only player on the roster playing significant minutes that has the lateral agility to stay in front of his man.
I think at some point he just hung it up mentally, in part based on wins/losses and in part based on the defense of his teammates.
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Just joking around, Matt 
Come on, âthis one conveniently delineated stretch.â
So when Coach K took over at Duke, his first few years of getting hammered by UNC should be held against him?
You judge coaches by what they are able to accomplish once they have their system and preferred players in place. Sure, itâs great if they can achieve results before that, but expecting it to occur is unfair, especially when the rival youâre concerned about surpassing is an elite program.
For example, if Jim Harbaugh goes 4-2 in his next six over OSU, Iâll say heâs gotten the better of Urban Meyer, even though his overall record will still be 4-4. Why? Because in his first two years, he was playing with Brady Hokeâs inherited players.
The other flaw, I think, comes from these assumptions about our basketball program. Can we all agree MSU is still superior to everyone else in the Big Ten too? So if thatâs the case - which it is - youâre saying Michigan fans expected us to be the top program in the Big Ten by now, and if weâre not, thatâs disappointing.
So why is that a reasonable expectation? The success of the 1980s and 1990s - while fun to watch - was built on recruiting practices we will no longer tolerate. (And by the way, the blue blood schools cheat themselves). We donât have this incredible basketball tradition. And we canât play the handler/AAU game to get elite recruits.
And yet somehow, fans expect us to be at the top of the conference (and donât show for games if weâre not). Itâs a very entitled attitude, and a flawed one.
Yes, maybe, in 2001, if we were able to seal the deal with Rick Pitino and put a stop to the bleeding before suffering through six years of no NCAA tourney with Amaker, things would have turned out differently. But we obviously didnât.
And look, itâs not like we havenât had some great moments under Beilein. Five years into his tenure, we were playing for a national championship. Six years in, we won the Big Ten with a 15-3 record and made the Elite Eight. And during that time, weâve produced several NBA players.
I agree that going forward, the past isnât overly significant. It was a great run, but we have to show signs of being able to get back to that level. And honestly - while we live in an instant gratification society - we probably wonât know for another two years whether that progress is being made.
And thatâs what happens when youâre a school that doesnât land multiple McDonalds All Americans every year. Sometimes you have to wait out a particular recruiting cycle, and wait for better players to come in, before things get better again.
Again, it happens to a LOT of programs. Mike Brey went 15-17 at ND a few years ago, then won 32 the next year. Jay Wright, a few years after Novaâs 2009 FF run, went 13-18. Then he won it all last year. Matt Painterâs first five years on the job were great (which coincided with getting some talented players who panned out). Then he missed the tourney with sub .500 teams two years in a row. Now heâs got it working again. These things happen. Heck, look at Steve Alford - heâs recruited at a very high level, and his UCLA teams have been VERY up and down - but right now, they have the best player in college basketball, and theyâre rolling.
I donât know if JB will or wonât be able to find the magic again, but I do know ups and downs are a fact of life.
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Iâll tell you what - if MSU suffers an Ed Martin like scandal, and handles it the way we did, enabling Michigan to jump in and get any instate recruits it wants, that would certainly help a lot.
Letâs just say for the sake of argument Mo Taylor never rolls his Ford Explorer, and Mateen Cleaves comes to Michigan. You think Izzo ever does any of this? I donât. The power vacuum created by that event, and our subsequent response to it, really canât be overstated.
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