Alabama A&M
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I meant it’s incredible in a bad way that our point guards didn’t score
I’m shocked the point guards didn’t score against a team like that. That’s not a good thing.
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I thought the pgs played fine.
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It would sure improve our B1G outlook if Eli could start shooting the ball as advertised.
His numbers are just brutal right now:
17-52 .327 from the field
10-36 .278 from 3 pt land
Worst 3 pt % on whole team.
If our PGs continue to be a nonexistent scoring threat going forward, I don’t see how DeJulius doesn’t get major minutes next year.
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The people predicting 12-6 for this team in the Big Ten are deluding themselves. We’re just not going to win very many of the close, tough games with such sub-par point guard play, on top of shaky FT shooting and only average 3 point shooting.
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I’m thinking 7-2 to open BIG slate, which includes current 1-1 start in BIG
My hunch is that those who are calling for 12-6 are making that call based upon the subpar play of the rest of the Big Ten, and not solely on the merits of free throw shooting, PG play, or three point %. And considering the inconsistencies of the conference outside or MSU and Purdue, I’m not sure how anyone could argue that 12-6 isn’t a real possibility.
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Are people “predicting” 12-6? We’re favored in 11 more Big Ten games. What’s the over/under on final big ten win totals, 10.5? It doesn’t seem outrageous to me to say something like 11 wins is a good target and 12 is pretty doable.
And, to be fair, you said something similar about people who thought the team had a decent shot to win @Tex. Anyway, we should have a lot more data in the next ten days or so.
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Yes, people are predicting 12-6. Read the threads. To get to 12 wins from an expectation of 10.5 means things have to break our way in more close games than not. That’s not going to happen with shaky FT shooting, average 3 point shooting and below average PG play. It just isn’t.
And, to be fair, we ended up playing Texas without their only decent offensive player. If he had been in, we very probably lose.
Glass half full or glass half empty? PG has not provided much scoring, but it has been better defensively than it’s been in years. FT & 3pt shooting hasn’t been great, but offensive efficiency has still been strong (and arguably guys like Wagner & Robinson should “improve to the mean” with their 3pt percentages). So I guess it’s what side of the spectrum do you choose to believe? Are the worst attributes of this team going to remain weaknesses and the best attributes wilt in B1G play? Or will the strengths remain and the weaknesses slowly improve over time?
I think this is most likely an 11-7 B1G team, but I can see 12-6 more likely than 10-8 (13-5 or 9-9 I think are both highly unlikely). Much of that belief is based on the state of the B1G and the growth Livers & Poole showed through December (yesterday’s game withstanding).
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Nice post. People are, imo, underestimating how much better this team is at defense than we have been in past years.
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Saying that our FT shooting “hasn’t been great” is a ridiculous understatement. We’re next to last in the Big Ten at 62.5%. For perspective, the league leader is at 76.5%, and we were above 80% in NC play last year. As far as 3pt shooting, you can trot out any variation of “regression to the mean” or “the shots will start falling” that you want, but that’s no guarantee of if or when it will actually happen. Robinson is playing a very different role this year, and we don’t know what the “mean” for that is. Zak Irvin’s three point shooting declined significantly as he went from a backup whose main job was to shoot 3s to a starter at the 3 or 4 who was expected to rebound, play defense and guard bigger, more physical opponents.
And when you run down the stats for Big Ten teams, what exactly are our “strengths”?
http://www.bigten.org/library/stats/mbb-confldrs.html
We’ve been very good at avoiding turnovers, but other than that, we’re no better than middle of the pack on just about everything else, including FG defense. When we start going head-to-head with these teams, where are we going to gain a winning advantage?
The fact that we are number 1 in turnover margin and number 1 in assist to turnover margin is huge. Number 2 in defensive rebounding percentage is promising as well.
I just don’t think this is a typical JB team. We have unusual strengths for a JB team. I don’t remember us stealing the ball like we are doing now in past teams. I feel like we rebound better overall too but not sure. Definitely a better team on defense!
Are you having fun watching this group of players? They have room for improvement but I find this group a joy to watch.
Going to get a lot better too!
I’m still siding with Beilein on this. Need to see it before I believe it. The two teams that Michigan has faced with an offensive pulse ripped them apart. Need to see this team defend well against good offenses. Might be something there, but I wouldn’t go crazy with it yet. Will be very interesting over the next few weeks.
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Do big ten offenses qualify as “good” offenses this year? At the very least, there will be less than usual
There’s 5 big ten teams in kenpoms top 50 offenses and two of them are Maryland and Northwestern who just got killed with injuries
Maybe not. We’ll see.
Michigan has held Texas, Indiana, UCLA and VCU below a point per possession. There’s one top-50 offense in that group (UCLA at 43)
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Why is that “huge”? And being 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage is more than balanced by being dead last in offensive rebounding percentage.
If turnover margin is the only “strength” you can cite, that’s not particularly unusual for a Beilein team…it’s fairly typical, in fact. And rebounding has never been a strength of Beilein’s teams, even his best ones, so that’s not too big a concern, either. The problem is that FT shooting and 3 point shooting, which traditionally HAVE been major strengths of Beilein teams, are not this year. Not only are we shooting free throws badly, we’re not drawing many fouls, even against weak defenses. We’ve attempted by far the fewest free throws of any BT team so far, and only Wisconsin is even close to us. That’s another area that Beilein’s best teams have relied upon for an advantage.
I am having a good time watching this group of players so there is not a huge incentive for me to try to convince you that you shouldn’t be worried. But a quick look at our turnover margin compared to last year and it looks like our margin is even better than last year. Like most JB teams we are good at not turning the ball over but we are significantly better this year at stealing the ball than we were last year and that is significant. I would also add, because I am looking at this team as sort of a rebuilding year that it is pretty cool that the young guards are meeting the JB standard of having a good assist/ turnover ratio…better than last year I think. We are rebounding the ball defensively better compared to last year as well. I think JB thinks offensive rebounds are overrated so I am not too worried about the lack of offensive rebounds to tell you the truth…
Although, I don’t have the time or energy to look into the stats— I am definitely open to reading more from you (or others) about the areas where we compare to past JB teams. So yeah, we are not shooting well, but my feeling is we are improved in other areas…
…Just looked real quick. It is wise to be skeptical because I am comparing this season to the entire last season, which included the conference teams, but our rebounding percentage, although not great, is better for both OR and DR…
Generally speaking, the big ten just doesn’t seem very good this year. Every time I watch a big team play I think “wow, they stink” or “wow, this team is not that great”. We might be pretty average team and do alright…Hard to say.