Team Review After 1/4 Season

It is possible to play Walton, Levert, Irvin, Chatman and Spike 32 minutes each per game but I don’t think it is a good idea. If one of them gets hurt who will replace those minutes? In my opinion, JB needs to be finding minutes for *Dawkins each game. Essentially playing 5 players for spots 1-4 is likely not sustainable over the course of a season in my opinion.

…I forgot about a healthy Wilson…Either Dawkins or Wilson need to be getting 10+ minutes per game because such a short bench (which seems to be the plan) only works if we are injury/ foul trouble free.

....I forgot about a healthy Wilson....Either Dawkins or Wilson need to be getting 10+ minutes per game because such a short bench (which seems to be the plan) only works if we are injury/ foul trouble free.

I think Wilson and MAAR will get some healthy minutes in December other than at Arizona. Remember Michigan didn’t even decide to burn Caris LeVert’s redshirt until about this point during his freshman year.

....I forgot about a healthy Wilson....Either Dawkins or Wilson need to be getting 10+ minutes per game because such a short bench (which seems to be the plan) only works if we are injury/ foul trouble free.

I think Dawkins and MAAR will get some healthy minutes in December other than at Arizona. Remember Michigan didn’t even decide to burn Caris LeVert’s redshirt until about this point during his freshman year.

Matt, weren’t you the one who said, just from watching the scrimmage, that if we were able to combine Doyle and Donnal that we might get a good player out of it? Maybe jumped the gun a little bit, eh?

umhoops, I guess you are right. I should not assume, only 6 games in, that JB is planning to keep MAAR, Wilson, and Dawkins out of the action for the whole season. Besides, one might argue that Chatman’s playing time will be more valuable toward his own development if he is playing alongside guys who are more veteran rather than entering more chaos into the situation by putting Chatman and MAAR on the court at the same time for example…JB seems to be a one step at a time sort of guy…Apparently it works!

Matt, weren't you the one who said, just from watching the scrimmage, that if we were able to combine Doyle and Donnal that we might get a good player out of it? Maybe jumped the gun a little bit, eh?

Jumped the gun in what regard?

So you’ve gone from wishing two guys could be combined to make one good player to saying “after 3 games against high-major opposition, I’m on the Doyle bandwagon.” You don’t’ think your conclusions you came to, based on a scrimmage, jumped the gun a bit?

Ok, I’ll leave you to his 25% 3 Pt shooting against real competition thus far.

How about his 41% over a full season last year. Especially when his role was less of a creator and more of a catch and shoot. Definitely a good catch and shoot player.

When he was left wide open due to the other talent on the floor? A good spot-up shooter is Denzel Valentine. It’s tough for a 6’1 PG to be a good spot-up 3 PT shooter, hence why the best one’s in the pros tend to be SGs and SFs. The only ridiculous thing stated in this thread is that Walton isn’t a creator. That’s just asinine, especially after the game-winning play from last game.

And yes, spot-up jumpshots tend to be open shots, but there’s a difference between wide-open spot up shots and semi-open shots where someone is closing out on you, which Walton will see a lot more of this year without the litany of talent that was around last year.

Taking bets: Walton will have a better 3pt % than Valentine by year’s end.

So you've gone from wishing two guys could be combined to make one good player to saying "after 3 games against high-major opposition, I'm on the Doyle bandwagon." You don't' think your conclusions you came to, based on a scrimmage, jumped the gun a bit?

I’m on the Doyle bandwagon in terms of starting. Doyle still has huge holes in his game but he’s the lesser of 2 evils. So, no, I don’t think I jumped the gun a bit. Do you think you were premature in assuming I jump the gun without clarification or full context?

Ok, I’ll leave you to his 25% 3 Pt shooting against real competition thus far.

How about his 41% over a full season last year. Especially when his role was less of a creator and more of a catch and shoot. Definitely a good catch and shoot player.

When he was left wide open due to the other talent on the floor? A good spot-up shooter is Denzel Valentine. It’s tough for a 6’1 PG to be a good spot-up 3 PT shooter, hence why the best one’s in the pros tend to be SGs and SFs. The only ridiculous thing stated in this thread is that Walton isn’t a creator. That’s just asinine, especially after the game-winning play from last game.

Once again, a wholistic approach is your friend. GR3 was going HAM on AZ last year with step backs and crossover dribbles for one game. Would you characterize GR3 as a creator? Derrick Walton is a PG to the extent he dribbles the ball past half court. Caris and Spike initiate our half court sets with Derrick as a spotup shooter 90% of the time. To say otherwise is just false and pure garbage.
Then let's just take their 3 PT % in practice and open gyms. There's no difference between shooting against a big, athletic defender that top teams have to offer and the defenders that Nicholls State has to offer? Pretty stupid logic.

1.
These are subscription articles, so I’ll only quote one paragraph from each. Well worth the read if you are subscribed.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

So on average over the rest of the season, there will be a roughly a 1-2 percent difference between the teams currently in the top and bottom 20 of opponents’ 3-point percentage. We’re talking about a difference of one make every two or three games between the best and worst groups. Without more analysis, one can’t say precisely how much skill a team has at influencing its opponents’ three-point percentage, but there’s a fair amount of evidence it’s not much, and even end-of-season figures are the result of significantly more noise than skill.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_boeheim_exception

“To illustrate why a team might have little control over its opponents’ three-point shooting, consider a ball screen situation. If a defender goes under a ball screen, the ballhander, assuming he’s a good shooter, will be inclined to shoot. If the defender goes over the screen, the ballhandler’s response will not be to shoot a more difficult shot, it will be to not shoot at all. In this way, defensive strategies tend to impact the number of threes taken and not the percentage of threes made. By the end of the season, opponents have taken a mix of open and contested shots based on their own decisions, and from the defense’s point of view the distribution of these decisions isn’t going to differ much from team to team. Thus, the resulting rankings of defensive 3P% are largely random, influenced some by opponents shooting ability.”

2.
Last year Stauskas was 3 for 11 vs Wisconsin (27%), 1 for 4 vs Arizona (25%), 0 for 1 vs Duke (0%), and 2 for 7 vs Stanford (29%). Even elite shooters don’t shoot at 40+% EVERY game. You could go through ANY player and pick out sets of games where they shot bad. This is why sample size is huge.

Good stuff everyone. My brief thoughts:

  1. Doyle is a poor man’s McGary. Love his hustle and ability down low.
  2. Irvin is our offensive go-to guy at the moment- not Caris, which surprises me a little.
  3. Walton has been steady, but has not shown as much improvement as I thought he would but the injury obviously did not help.
  4. Its too bad Horford did not stay because it could have pushed Donnal to the 4 and allowed Wilson to redshirt from jump street.
  5. I wonder if either MAAR or Dawkins will impact a game for us at some point in conference play. Lord knows we will need their help from time to time.
  6. I still see this team in a jumble of teams vying for the 2-6 seeds in the conference tournament.
  7. I was really hoping to see more out of Chatman. He looks like a good passer and rebounder, but his shooting has been terrible and he is not an explosive finisher.
  8. I LIKE SPIKE!!!

A couple thoughts during this NJIT game:

  1. Walton may not initiate the offense like Spike/Caris but he can definitely create shots for himself/others…getting pull up mid-range jumper for himself with ease this game
  2. Caris drives me crazy settling for tough low % shots. Off balance contested long twos are too much of a habit for how good of a player he is IMO
  3. Kam repeatedly gets the ball in the corner for an open jumper, and opts to put the ball on the floor every time, which I would be fine with except for he seems to go up soft and hasnt shown any ability to finish yet. I wonder if we would be better off with him just taking the jumper at this point
  4. Might be a little personal bias here, but I’m just not seeing Caris as an NBA guy this year. He just feels like a great college player more than a 1st-round guy right now and I can’t help but dream about the possibility of bringing everyone on this team back next year.

Nope, no shooting concerns at all for Irvin so far this season

Nope, no shooting concerns at all for Irvin so far this season

All players have off nights. Find me shooters who never have off nights.

Also, good idea coming off the stance you were taking before regarding level of opponents being a huge factor in 3pt shooting %.

Nope, no shooting concerns at all for Irvin so far this season

All players have off nights. Find me shooters who never have off nights.

Also, good idea coming off the stance you were taking before regarding level of opponents being a huge factor in 3pt shooting %.

Lol, ok, spin this any way you want

Nope, no shooting concerns at all for Irvin so far this season

He bounced back alright after Charlotte last year.
But he does just look off this year