Yes, Silverblue. And he is going to become more comfortable as time passes.
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DJ Wilson was not an undersized 2 guard and big men usually take longer to develop.
Eli is a fine role player. Heâs a good defender, but he is not a starting 2 in the B1G. I donât think we could realistically expect him to average over 5 ppg as a starter. That would be 3 ppg less than Livers put up last season as 6th man.
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I agree, Matt. Like just about everything we do, the more we do it the more adept we become at it and the more comfortable we are in doing it. As Coach Juwan faces reporters during press conferences he will become better and better at it. He will become more comfortable and more at ease. I hope he doesnât become too comfortable, though, because thatâs when some reporter will ask him a âtrickâ question looking for a story.
Then, too, becoming too comfortable at anything may cause us to become complacent. All in all, though, I still want Juwan to become the best coach he can be and let the press conferences sort of come to him as they will. Frankly, I think thatâs what will happen. 
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So I said there are multiple examples of kids making major jumps, and you replied by moving the goalposts to within 5 feet of each other by defining the situation as 2s going into their junior year who end up as âvery goodâ? Thatâs a bit much.
When I made my comment, I was certainly including guys like DJ and Jon Teske (3.4 points his sophomore year). But âbig men usually take longerâ. OK.
Here are the comps, then, as I see themâŚnoting that these guys are plus players at the NBA level and perhaps the best player in the country the second half of his senior year, respectively. Eli wonât be either of these guys, but his contribution jump could mirror them proportionally:
In terms of the type of leap Iâm referring to, Caris went from 0.9 points and 0.8 assists on 10.7 minutes played per game his freshman year to 12.9 and 2.9 on 34 minutes per game, respectively. Eli had 2.5 points and 1.1 assists on 12.9 minutes last year. To be clear, I am certainly not suggesting that Eliâs ceiling is anywhere close to Carisâ, Iâm simply pointing out that a 2 guard has made that kind of leap before. It wouldnât be crazy to think that Eli could more than double his output on more than double the minutes in a scenario where we have limited options.
âBut that was a year 1 to year 2 leap and Caris had a bunch of practice buzz that suggested he was much better than his recruiting profile his freshman yearâ
Yes, and Iâll address that first point with a different comp, but on the secondâŚEli had some of that buzz last year, in practice. He couldnât carry into games, a mental/confidence issue.
So then the other comp is senior Derrick Walton after the Illinois âwhite collarâ game. That comment put a chip on his shoulder and he was suddenly one of the very best players in the country throughout the rest of that season. In 13 games prior to and including that game, his O-Rating (excluding non-con games against Howard, IUPUI, Mt. St. Maryâs, Kennesaw St, Central Arkansas, Maryland Eastern Shore, and Furman) was 106.6. In 18 games after, all of which were either B1G conference, B1G Tournament, or NCAA Tournament games, it was 131.4âŚa 23% increase due to an attitude readjustment.
Iâm sure this one wonât âcountâ because itâs year 3 to year 4 (or even intra-year 4), but given that Eliâs issues seem mental or confidence-based, this is the type of leap that feels eminently possible to me (not to mention linear growth due to a year of development).
SoâŚmaybe he canât get out of his own head, or something about his game doesnât fit Eisley/Martelli/Howardâs eye and he doesnât get minutes. Certainly possible. But Iâm not going to write the kid off. In a scenario where Franz doesnât come, or otherwise doesnât play the 2, I certainly wouldnât put it past Eli to be a âgoodâ starter with a new coach and a fresh start.
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Cole might have to work on a quicker release. Noticed he brought the ball down to his waist before every shot. But I suppose the most important thing is that the shots were going in!
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Really good year defined in what way would be my ? Could see him being good , not a go to star or anything but someone we could rely on. I agree Franz would be better but eli could be a nice player still.
Also I concur itâs very much mental with him. Some of the shots he threw up were just terrible and awkward looking at one point in the year. We can see from a high school film he can shoot. The way he missed some wide open shots that badly last year made me think he just lost all confidence.
At the end of the year it looked as if he had calmed down and found some footing. I think thatâs where peopleâs confidence comes in. Would it be ideal if he HAS to start? No, but Iâm optimistic he could handle it and who knows maybe he will earn it and surprise everyone.
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Ok, if youâre limiting it to undersized 2-guards, did Beilein have any undersized 2s during his tenure at at UM? Poole, MAAR, LeVert, Stauskas, Hardaway, DouglassâŚI guess Iâm struggling to go back before Stu. LaVall Lucas-Perry? But he didnât stick around long enough to potentially develop? So if Eli is a subset of 1 during Beileinâs tenure, we have no real data to compare against?
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As things stand right now, Eli is the only logical choice to start at the 2 in November. I think we all agree itâs not ideal, but with 3 solidified dawgs (X, Teske, Livers), we need guys on the court who have been there before and have a high floor early in the season. Eli is the only one to fit that criteria on the entire roster.
With that said, somebody will emerge after that first month and take that starting gig. Could be a freshman, could be Nunez, or even DDJ. Each option (including Eli) has never been asked to hunt shots against B1G competitionâŚbut I have blind confidence that we will get solid production from that position when itâs all said and done. My money is on Cole by January
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The Walton comparison is spot on. If Brooks finishes at the rim and shoots with confidence, he will be at least a solid rotation player.
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The wing spots are the biggest question mark going into the season. There is some talent there, but much of it is undeveloped. Will be really interesting to see how it all plays out. Especially if Franz comes stateside.
In my original response I just said a 2, which DJ was not.
I got up this morning, wrote a long letter to one of my new friends (long? huh, so what else is new! 
) and then read this thread. OUTSTANDING! I enjoyed reading this so much. Thanks guys!
I think Brooks role is pretty obvious. If Franz comes, you now have four players (Z, Teske, Livers, Franz) who will get 30-35 minutes. Franz and Livers can play multiple spots, so Brooks or Johnâs starts - I believe Brooks will start early in the season because heâs a good defender and doesnât make mistakes. But he will probably only get 20 minutes max and will be keeping a seat warm for whoever takes his minutes awayâŚNunez, Bajema, DDJ, Johns, etc. Heâs a role player we will appreciate but not more.
If Franz doesnât come, suddenly he has to play a bigger role and that doesnât bode well for our upside. I am high on Bajema but I see him as a 10 mpg guy as a freshman at best. I am still skeptical of Nunez, I like DDJ but not as a 2, and I still donât think you will see Castleton at the 4 much.
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If itâs purely a confidence thing, then sure Brooks could be a big ten caliber starter. But Iâm not convinced itâs strictly a confidence issue.
I think its a mild stretch to think Franz comes in and immediately commands 30-35 minutes.
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Because after hanging with Derrick Walton and Peyton Siva, Myles Dredd is gonna overwhelm him?
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I know there are some people who are Franz as a skinny, young, foreign freshman who will struggle to be a significant contributor early.
I disagree strongly. Heâs playing more games at a high level than most incoming freshman and he brings two things that Michigan is desperate for ⌠Shooting and the ability to play the wing. The people he is going to compete with for minutes are less proven than he is (Brooks, Bajema, Nunez, Johns). Even if Wagner sucks at defense, they can still hide him at the three because they can play four good defenders around him with Z, Brooks, Livers, and Teske.
Finally, there is a prescedent for this. Walton played a lot as a freshman out of necessity and just shot the ball. GR3 probably wasnât ready for 30mpg as a freshman but they needed him. Aubrey Dawkins played a ton.
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Totally agree that Franz will be in the group of top 4. 30 minutes a game is not a stretch as long as his conditioning allows. Franz, Livers, Johns give us a nice rotation at 3-4, and I still think that we will see Colin moves down to play 4 occasionally. Our front court, under Juwan, will be a strength next season.
The success of the season, (with the assumption of Franz coming and no major injuries) hinges mostly on the development of our backcourt besides X. That is, the group of Brooks, DDJ, and Bajema (I donât see Nunez has the handle for playing 2). All three have major barriers to overcome but they do have reachable goals: DDJ, relieving X for 5min per game, taking care of the ball and playing solid defense; Brooks, getting his mojo back and finishing at the rim; Bajema, adding some muscle and taking advantage of his length on defense. I am also convinced that X will take those goals like his own and challenge his teammates to be better.
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Bajema doing Martelliâs curl & fade drill there.
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in these photos you can see that Bajema and Castleton have added a significant amount of strength and weight
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