Preseason Expectations

Caleb Swanigan still not cleared by the NCAA. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2582964-acclaimed-purdue-freshman-caleb-swanigan-awaiting-ok-to-play-from-ncaa?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=web-des-art-bot-22

Blind Resume Conference-only stats (players played in same conference):

Player A
34.7 mpg
9.4 ppg
4.4 apg
2.5 rpg
0.9 spg
1.5 topg
2.9 a/to ratio

Player B
32.8 mpg
9.9 ppg
2.1 apg
2.0 rpg
0.3 spg
1.0 topg
2.1 a/to ratio

Thatā€™s 13-14 Walton versus 14-15 Koenig, right?

Great comparison

I am not sure how your other response to me got included in the last one. Just as people believe Beilein gets the benefit of the doubt coming into this year I would think Bo Ryan's past success gets the same benefit of the doubt. I can understand why some people are excited to see a healthy team but do we know if Walton-Levert-Dawkins-Irvin can co-exist on the court at the same time? After all that group has probably played a handful of minutes together. I think it will be an interesting year I am not sure collectively they're as good as other B1G teams though, maybe last year is playing into it a lot. Maybe it's because I am not as sold on Walton as others.

Um. What possible reason could they not coexist in Beileinā€™s offense?

No, that was 2014/2015 Albrecht and 2014/2015 Koenig.

Far to many questions about the defensive glass abilities of this team, as well as the inability to have a rim protector. Their post defense needs to improve greatly to have any shot at an upper tier finish in the B1G. Second shot attempts are killers.

Sorry, have to disagree with that. The last two times weā€™ve won the Big Ten ('12 and '14), weā€™ve done it with a negative rebounding margin, and nothing special in the way of post defense. Not that I wouldnā€™t like us to rebound better and defend inside better, but weā€™ve proven we can win consistently in the conference without that. Really good 3 point shooting (which we are likely to have) makes up for a multitude of other failings. The NCAA tournament is where lack of elite inside play puts more of a ceiling on us, IMO.

Far to many questions about the defensive glass abilities of this team, as well as the inability to have a rim protector. Their post defense needs to improve greatly to have any shot at an upper tier finish in the B1G. Second shot attempts are killers.

Sorry, have to disagree with that. The last two times weā€™ve won the Big Ten ('12 and '14), weā€™ve done it with a negative rebounding margin, and nothing special in the way of post defense. Not that I wouldnā€™t like us to rebound better and defend inside better, but weā€™ve proven we can win consistently in the conference without that. Really good 3 point shooting (which we are likely to have) makes up for a multitude of other failings. The NCAA tournament is where lack of elite inside play puts more of a ceiling on us, IMO.

No Jordan Morgan on this team.

I am not sure how your other response to me got included in the last one. Just as people believe Beilein gets the benefit of the doubt coming into this year I would think Bo Ryan's past success gets the same benefit of the doubt. I can understand why some people are excited to see a healthy team but do we know if Walton-Levert-Dawkins-Irvin can co-exist on the court at the same time? After all that group has probably played a handful of minutes together. I think it will be an interesting year I am not sure collectively they're as good as other B1G teams though, maybe last year is playing into it a lot. Maybe it's because I am not as sold on Walton as others.

Um. What possible reason could they not coexist in Beileinā€™s offense?

Because itā€™s possible they would struggle on the defensive end. They were 107th last year in adjusted D, 109th the year before that. The 3 and 4 are interchangeable but Irvin did struggle playing the 4 last year. If you donā€™t want Irvin playing the 4 who out of Dawkins and Levert play the 4 then? Dawkins was an extremely poor defensive player last year I canā€™t see them putting him at the 4 and Levert certainly wonā€™t play the 4.

I thought Irvin definitely improved guarding opposing fours over the course of last season.

I am not sure how your other response to me got included in the last one. Just as people believe Beilein gets the benefit of the doubt coming into this year I would think Bo Ryan's past success gets the same benefit of the doubt. I can understand why some people are excited to see a healthy team but do we know if Walton-Levert-Dawkins-Irvin can co-exist on the court at the same time? After all that group has probably played a handful of minutes together. I think it will be an interesting year I am not sure collectively they're as good as other B1G teams though, maybe last year is playing into it a lot. Maybe it's because I am not as sold on Walton as others.

Um. What possible reason could they not coexist in Beileinā€™s offense?

Because itā€™s possible they would struggle on the defensive end. They were 107th last year in adjusted D, 109th the year before that. The 3 and 4 are interchangeable but Irvin did struggle playing the 4 last year. If you donā€™t want Irvin playing the 4 who out of Dawkins and Levert play the 4 then? Dawkins was an extremely poor defensive player last year I canā€™t see them putting him at the 4 and Levert certainly wonā€™t play the 4.

Theyā€™ll likely be improved from last year by atleast a little bit, and as you said, we won the Big Ten with the 109th defense two years ago.

Morgan was a good rebounder, but not a great one, certainly not irreplaceably so. And he was never much of a rim protector.

Morgan was a good rebounder, but not a great one, certainly not irreplaceably so. And he was never much of a rim protector.

Canā€™t argue with your points about last two B1G titles having little if any defensive presence and a negative rebounding margin. However itā€™s difficult for me to buy into this years hype until I actually see an improvement on the defensive glass. We all understand the trade off Beilein makes with low turnovers and three point shooting, but at some point you need to be able to limit the opposing teams chances. Just to difficult to beat the upper echelon teams surrending 2,3,4 shots. Iā€™m wondering how many times the conference champion has had a lower adjusted defensive rating than M had in those title years? Dylan?

19 win regular season
2 wins in the Big Ten tournament
Bubble team-8 Seed.
Going home on the 2nd day of the Tournament

With that being said, thereā€™s enough talent on this team, with a few breaks, they could win the conference and/or be a top 4 seed in the tourny and make a run. I donā€™t expect it though.

Surprise player-MAAR. I think by conference play, heā€™ll be a 20 minute player, stealing playing time from Spike and used in a rotation that rests Irvin.

Morgan was a good rebounder, but not a great one, certainly not irreplaceably so. And he was never much of a rim protector.

Canā€™t argue with your points about last two B1G titles having little if any defensive presence and a negative rebounding margin. However itā€™s difficult for me to buy into this years hype until I actually see an improvement on the defensive glass. We all understand the trade off Beilein makes with low turnovers and three point shooting, but at some point you need to be able to limit the opposing teams chances. Just to difficult to beat the upper echelon teams surrending 2,3,4 shots. Iā€™m wondering how many times the conference champion has had a lower adjusted defensive rating than M had in those title years? Dylan?

2014 was the crazy exception. I donā€™t remember off hand, but I think Michigan was something like 10th in Def. PPP allowed in Big Ten games and still won the conference easily.

2013 they didnā€™t win it, but had a top 50 defense and in 2012 when they shared the league they actually had a better defense (4th) than offense (6th) in Big Ten play. That was still one of the most incredibly gutty and overachieving conference seasons I can remember.

Canā€™t argue with your points about last two B1G titles having little if any defensive presence and a negative rebounding margin. However itā€™s difficult for me to buy into this years hype until I actually see an improvement on the defensive glass. We all understand the trade off Beilein makes with low turnovers and three point shooting, but at some point you need to be able to limit the opposing teams chances. Just to difficult to beat the upper echelon teams surrending 2,3,4 shots. Iā€™m wondering how many times the conference champion has had a lower adjusted defensive rating than M had in those title years? Dylan?

Well, itā€™s not like inside play is likely to be one of our strengths, but when you look around the Big Ten, there just arenā€™t that many high quality bigs returning. Hammons, maybe Olah, one or two others at most. Pretty much everyone else has average talent returning and is depending on new arrivals to make them better there. And taking the whole lineup into account, how many teams do we really not match up that well against? Maryland, maybe Indiana. I think weā€™re just fine against State, and I see us and them fighting for 3/4 spot right now, with Purdue, Wisconsin and OSU coming in after that among potential tournament teams.

On those days the shots arenā€™t falling, you have to be able to get stops and take care of your defensive glass. Has always been difficult for M under Beilein. Hopefully this year we will see noticeable improvement. Not impossible IMO.

No, definitely not impossible. How far we go this year will depend a fair amount on how much improvement we see in Doyle and Wilson, but I have some hopes in that regard. And letā€™s not forget, this is a coach who won the Big Ten by three full games AFTER losing Mitch McGary for the whole conference season, and who also finished tied for first with Zack Novak starting as power forward and Blake McLimans as backup center.

chezaroo, where do you have Michigan finishing in conference play?

chezaroo, where do you have Michigan finishing in conference play?

Hail, I have them going 11-7 in conference this year. Difficult to predict where that might translate into the final standings, but if the last two years are any indicator than a top four finish is likely. Historically there is a big logjam of teams that finish the year with 6-7 losses. Could finish anywhere from 3-6.

I believe that is this teams ceiling based on their rebounding deficiencies, especially on the defensive glass. Always hoping for continued progress in this area, maybe this is the year? Need a big to emerge as a consistent vacuum, to augment above average rebounding by Walton and LeVert. We shall see.

If we can get one of the high-usage, high-minutes guys (Irvin, LeVert, Walton) to also have high efficiency, that means heā€™s having an B1G POY type season, which I think would trickle down as long as everyone plays their roles. If Irvin can be to LeVert like LeVert was to Stauskas a couple years ago, that would be ideal (of course also hoping LeVert can have a Stauskas-like season). Let Dawkins fill GRIIIā€™s role and Walton can be a more mature version of his freshman self. The thing weā€™ll be lacking is a Jordan Morgan type player, so we have to hope Doyleā€™s style will be as effective. Maybe Doyle can be that guy that opposing teams hate. I donā€™t know. I suspect that weā€™ll be able to shoot the ball very well and that can go a long way.

Food for discussion: