Moritz Wagner is off to the NBA

Michigan Basketball
41

We will indeed miss his attitude next year, along with his energy, personality, leadership, scoring and ability to space the floor. He will be missed in a lot of ways. What a fine young man. A Michigan man.

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42

Personally, I think there is zero chance Mo is selected as a 1st rounder, but I will eat crow if I’m wrong.

In the NBA, it’s getting to the point where you either have to be able to protect the rim or guard the perimeter to stick on the floor. And Mo can do neither, and the NBA is starting to adjust to that in their draft decisions. Even someone as talented offensively as Kevin Love is losing a lot of his value because he can’t guard any one.

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43

Yup, I unfortunately agree with this. Don’t know who Moe can guard at the next level. Has the skills of a perfect stretch 5, but too slow laterally to guard 4s and too thin to guard 5s.

44

But it sounds like that doesn’t change if Moe put in another year at Michigan, right?

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45

Yeah. His stock is mostly maxed out.

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46

I bet Moe ends up in an NBA front office some day.

47

I think Moe is likely a first rounder when all is said and done. DJ ended up going higher than expected. I think LeVert went higher than expected after injuries. I’m not sold on Wagner’s lack of athleticism; he can certainly run well, good first step. I find the athleticism critique a function of group think.

48

I think when people point to his athleticism they’re pointing that out because he isn’t a great defender, but I don’t think it’s necessarily all athleticism, that’s just the easy way out. I’ve seen guys who are very good defenders who aren’t great athletes and others who are great athletes and poor defensively. In Moe’s case I think it’s more of the tape on him, that he just hasn’t proven to be a great defensive player. His wing span isn’t exceptional, and his vertical leap is not great either, both of which would help him on the defensive end. It will be interesting to see if he can either be ‘good enough’ defensively or if his offensive game can make it hard to take him off the floor even with his shortcomings on defense. I hope he has a very good NBA career, and I think he will at worst be a guy who sticks around for awhile but the potential liability defensively in a league where everyone can score just about is understandable.

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49

I’m thinking about Adrien Payne and comparing Wagner. I think Moe Wagner compares favorably. Maybe I’m crazy and biased but I think Wagner can find his niche. I don’t think he is an all star level talent, probably not even a starter, but I think he can find a role.

50

As far as success in the NBA Adrien Payne is certainly not one you want to use haha

51

I agree completely that he can have a good role in the NBA. Also, it’s worth noting that a lot of guys taken ahead of Moe could easily turn out worse, but NBA GM’s are more likely to take a shot on the freshman or 19 year old from Europe who COULD be really good versus the Wagner type guy who they (generally) know what to expect from. In a star driven league it’s easy to understand why they do this.

52

I only focused on getting drafted in first round and Payne popped into my mind as an apt comparison. Big guy with a nice shot without the greatest mobility. Better leaper and shot blocker no doubt.

I’ve never seen one minute of Payne in the NBA, so I’m not an expert on his current game by any measure.

53

He basically never did anything in the NBA. Awful pick by my Hawks. I think he got cut by his GLeague team because of the recent allegations. You can’t really compare players from other drafts though and say X player is better than Y so he should be drafted around the same spot. A lot of different factors weigh in, including a massive shift in many team’s philosophies even in the last 4 years.

i love Mo, I agree with you that he can find a role in the NBA. But I also would be very pleasently surprised if he’s a first round pick.

Frankly, the Bucks reached for DJ last year.

54

I think Lauri Markkanen is what Moe’s best case scenario will be in the league. Markkanen’s numbers his one year at Arizona aren’t much different than Moe’s junior season, although Moe shot a little worse from 3P% and free throw than Lauri did. Moe’s also smaller both in height and strength. But as long as he can stretch the floor he’ll have a role

55

Niches are, I think, what it’s all about. And luck. (And maybe the patience of some GM or coach.) How many people here and elsewhere said that Trey Burke would never flourish in the league? When we go back and forth in these conversations we tend to get money, talent, and breaks all a little confused, in my view. Whether Moe goes deep in the first round or early in the second won’t say that much about how talented he is, after all. . .

56

He moves his feet fine for a center, but I don’t know if you can get away with him playing center due to other defensive defencies. Would be among the least athletic power forwards in the league.

57

I know we’re homers but would you take any of these guys over Moe backing up the 5 on your favorite team?
Enes Canter, Any Plumlee, Any Zeller, Jahlil Okafor, Greg Monroe, Al Jefferson, Gorgui Dieng, Nick Collison, Richaun Holmes, Alex Len, Jakob Poeltl, etc.

Or closer to home - Eric Moreland (tell me Moe on a 2nd line with Ish, Kennard, Stanley and Tolliver wouldn’t be fun - give up some points but fun)

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58

In short, yes I would probably take 4 or 5 of those guys over Moe (Cody Zeller, Holmes, Poeltl, Kanter) and a few others on your list are no longer backup centers in the league.

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59

Hmm, pulled those names from nba.com rosters so sorry about that. Fair enough for us to disagree though. In my opinion when it comes to the ones you’ve listed

  • As a back to the basket scorer Kanter isn’t what the league is trending towards and isn’t a great defender himself.
  • Zeller is athletic and probably a better defender but his rim running and mid range games would pale next to what Moe could bring.
  • Holmes is an interesting piece but is an athlete who needs others to make offense for him
  • Poeltl is a decent rim protector and maybe shows the most potential on this list.
60

As it relates to the players listed:

  • You’re right that the league is trending away from players like Kanter and I am not a huge fan of his game. He is a sieve defensively, as you noted; however, is still an elite rebounder on both ends and is efficient around the basket and on putbacks. As a backup center (he started all year for the putrid Knicks), I wouldn’t mind him on my team.

  • Zeller’s Charlotte teams have actually always been better with him on the court than off it, with the exception of his rookie year. He is a really good midrange shooter, but struggles to finish around the basket for his position (he has a small wingspan relative to his height).

  • I agree with your assessment of Holmes. I guess I would be 50/50 at best on who I’d prefer between he and Moe, now that I dig into it a bit more. Holmes has not been good at all defensively in the league, but is a really good finisher at the rim and excels in transition. Moe is definitely a better shooter, while Holmes fits that rim-running profile that many teams are looking for. I think Moe will similarly struggle to defend NBA athletes in space and at the rim.

  • I am probably a bit biased on Poeltl, but I think he has huge potential. He already shoots 71% around the basket and is a very solid rim protector. He can even switch onto smaller players, at times.

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