Josh Langford to Michigan State

Michigan Basketball
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Again, good discussion. I think there is a difference in our viewpoints, and what we'd prefer as fans.

Alum05 - you mention those “who want to get the NBA as soon as possible” - I don’t believe every kid is like that. The kids that are like that, normally don’t come to MSU or UM. They go to UK, Duke, Kansas, UNC. Langford will be MSU’s highest rated recruit since Shannon Brown in 2003 (other than Delvon Roe, who was RSCI 10 but blew out his knee his Sr year of HS).

I only bring up GR3 as a comparison. I’m not saying he’s a bust, I’m only using the word “bust” because that is what some posters think you are, if you’re a 5-star that stays longer than 2 years. I don’t know the dynamics of Beilein and GR3’s relationship, but if scouts were telling him he was going to be a 2nd rounder - UM probably should have pushed him to stay. Maybe they did, and he chose to ignore them? Not only would it have given him a chance to develop further, but he could’ve had a large impact on this past season for UM (esp when Levert and Walton went down, and they needed help) which could have boosted his stock. Instead, he went 2nd round, barely played, and was ultimately waived. Now he’s sort of in limbo. Is he going to get another shot?

LA-Wolverine: There is no argument that UM has put more early entrants into the NBA than MSU has recently. But my argument to that would be - were some of them really worth it? Was it worth it for GR3 to leave early to go 2nd round when he obviously wasn’t ready? I think it worked out for Darius Morris even as a 2nd round pick, as he still made a good chunk of money. But was his draft stock really at it’s highest after his Sophomore year, as a 2nd rounder? What if he would’ve stayed 1 more year and played himself into the first round? Then he would’ve gotten a guaranteed 3-year contract.

Here’s what he’s made in the NBA so far: Darius Morris Contract, Salary Cap Details & Breakdowns | Spotrac

Here’s what the Rookie payscale was for 2012-13, if he would’ve stayed another season and made it into the 1st round: NBA Rookie Scale - RealGM

I’d still consider him a success, as he’s made a couple million. But a lot of guys in the 2nd round don’t even make rosters, or are later waived and their contracts aren’t guaranteed. Now they’re no longer eligible for college, so they are forced to play D-league for $30k a year, or go to Europe (which actually isn’t that bad of a gig).

Payne could’ve left before his Senior season and most likely would’ve been drafted in the 2nd round. He came back for his Senior season, after he was considered as a fringe 1st rounder / early 2nd rounder. He stayed, graduated with a degree, and went Top-15 in the draft last season. I think he made the right move, even if he probably could’ve made a roster even as a 2nd round pick. So maybe he “hurt” Izzo’s record by not having another early entrant, but probably helped himself (and MSU) more overall, in the long run.

For a few of those UM early entrants, I don’t blame them for leaving early. Burke and Stauskas were lottery picks, so there is absolutely no reason they should’ve stayed. Not to discredit them, but their performances in the NBA so far do not seem to have correlated with their play, relative to their draft spot. The Jazz drafted another PG (Exum) the very next draft after Burke, and then started him in favor of Burke for the 2nd half of this past NBA season. Stauskas has had some trouble adjusting - I think he’ll figure it out. Can’t blame either of them for turning down guaranteed contracts though. McGary with his injury issues, I think he had to go as well. If he gets healthy he can be a beast, but he’s had injuries for 2-3 straight seasons now - it was time to cash in. THJ has been the most impressive Beilein player so far in the NBA, and I don’t think staying another year would have boosted his stock any further. He made the right move.

If anything, bringing up Stauskas and Burke only bolsters the argument that JB is better at developing / showcasing talent for the NBA. Both Burke and Stauskas have limited athletic ability (relative to the NBA level). It’s a feather in JB’s cap that they were lottery picks after 2 years.

On the other hand, you have guys like Dawson, who is an athletic freak. Yet in 4 years he could not learn how to dribble or shoot. Payne is 6’11, pretty athletic, and can shoot from distance. It took him 4 years to become a lottery pick? And then there are all of the other guys that I mentioned a few posts up. They were all highly regarded coming out of high school and none of them even sniffed the draft.

The fact that you are using GR3 as an example of a JB recruit not making it or not panning out is just laughable. He certainly didn’t develop as well as most U-M fans would have hoped, but he was still drafted. Seriously, compare his situation with Dawson.

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I, for one, think people are being too harsh on @LetsBeReal. Plenty to disagree with, but I think he is trying to have thoughtful debate and has a good point that we may be on track for some similar data points with top 50 recruits as we give Izzo a hard time for.

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I appreciate the differing opinions, and actually find the comparison between Izzo’s conversion of “stars” into draft placement into NBA WARP/Win Shares pretty interesting. However, I don’t think the point is logically argued. Would you say GR3/Morris went too early? Sure. Is that relevant to the post/comment on Langford? not at all. I think (although losing clarity on it by the line), that the initial post was saying Langford seems to choosing a path where his star rating relative to potential draft outcome is probably at the highest risk based on past data. That seems to be 100% true. Michigan has a history of improving from a player’s star rating into their draft rating with the only exception being where you choose to rate GR3 from a star standpoint. Should Langford care about people leaving potentially too early? No, he should care about having that option if he wants to go early, and learning an NBA-style offense that gives him a lot more decision making liability than what Izzo runs. I think the best outcome for him from a development standpoint is that the team does well, and can at least maintain his value – a situation similar to G.Harris. Counting on any sort of positive development bump in valuation as a wing at state is, at least on past data, pretty unrealistic.

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Your point about Stauskas and Burke is pretty much the same as my point - Beilein’s system allowed them to showcase their talents and be drafted very high. They are still young so we cannot comment yet on whether their draft position was accurate or not.

Payne is actually a very good example of development…? He literally got better every single season at MSU. Like I already mentioned, he could have left after his Junior year to be a 2nd rounder - but he opted to stay, earn his degree, and increased his draft positioning immensely. How is that a negative? http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/adreian-payne-1.html

GR3 vs. Dawson: are their situations really all that different?

Both 5-stars, one left early after 2 years and one stayed 4 years, both have limited chance of success in NBA. What do you value more as a fan, the 2nd round pick / 1-year contract GR3 got, or the 2 extra years and graduation of Dawson? Obviously a line will be drawn based on where your allegiances lie, but I don’t think it is as black and white as you are making it out to be.

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Your point about Stauskas and Burke is pretty much the same as my point - Beilein's system allowed them to showcase their talents and be drafted very high. They are still young so we cannot comment yet on whether their draft position was accurate or not.

Payne is actually a very good example of development…? He literally got better every single season at MSU. Like I already mentioned, he could have left after his Junior year to be a 2nd rounder - but he opted to stay, earn his degree, and increased his draft positioning immensely. How is that a negative? Adreian Payne College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

GR3 vs. Dawson: are their situations really all that different?

Both 5-stars, one left early after 2 years and one stayed 4 years, both have limited chance of success in NBA. What do you value more as a fan, the 2nd round pick / 1-year contract GR3 got, or the 2 extra years and graduation of Dawson? Obviously a line will be drawn based on where your allegiances lie, but I don’t think it is as black and white as you are making it out to be.

You could have just stopped after your first sentence: “Your point about Stauskas and Burke is pretty much the same as my point - Beilein’s system allowed them to showcase their talents and be drafted very high.” This whole debate has centered around getting players into the NBA. You keep moving the goalposts. Actually, the post that set this whole thing off (JohnNavarre’s original post) didn’t even mention Beilein. He basically said that if you are a highly ranked recruit with dreams of going to the NBA, you shouldn’t go to MSU.

And you ask if GR3 and Dawson’s situations are really that different. Yes, they are. Only an MSU homer would not think so. Again, we are talking about getting players to the NBA. One player was drafted after 2 years. One player is unlikely to be drafted after 4 (if Dawson ends up getting drafted, then I will have a slightly different opinion). The fact that Dawson has his degree does not at all factor in to this particular debate.

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Whether or not a particular player is “ready” for the NBA is a whole different discussion. No question Robinson could have used more time at Michigan (though he did land with Philly, so the assertion he “got waived” isn’t the end of the story). And I think Levert coming back is a good move.

I’m merely suggesting that under Beilein, players develop their offensive skills much faster than they do under Izzo, and thus are far more likely to become first round picks quicker. Honestly, I think a guy like Payne plays two years at Michigan. With that said, I think the reason is twofold: (1) Izzo stresses defense way more than we do, and if you can’t defend for him, you won’t play as much; and (2) he runs a much worse offense than we do, at least in terms of allowing his guys freedom and the ability to develop skills that the NBA likes. For example, it’s great that Dawson can dunk the ball prolifically, but that won’t help him in the NBA.

And clearly this doesn’t hold true in every instance. But on the whole, we’re producing draftable players faster than Izzo.

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I, for one, think people are being too harsh on @LetsBeReal. Plenty to disagree with, but I think he is trying to have thoughtful debate and has a good point that we may be on track for some similar data points with top 50 recruits as we give Izzo a hard time for.

I’m just calling out like it is. I’ve known LetsBeReal from the Rivals board for over a year and it’s the same schtick of trying to disguise trolling with backhanded compliments and faux prefaces.

Read page 2 of this thread and you can see what I mean:
http://forums.rivals.com/threads/b1g-recruiting-needs-in-16.128787/page-2

He’s a good poster when he isn’t talking about Michigan, but once Michigan gets brought up he has to go full troll.

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I would never send a kid to Izzo if the goal is the nba. In addition to all the good points already made, I beleive Izzo, who has huge influence over his players ( for whatever reason), gives bad advice to his players regarding the decision to stay in college or to enter the draft.

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Dumb question: how do you know MileHigh = LetsBeReal?