Josh Langford to Michigan State

Michigan Basketball
21
5 stars, 4 years, no NBA - rinse and repeat.

I won’t be shocked when he eventually decommits. Someone will get in his ear and convince him that that place is a graveyard for 5 star players’ future pro prospects.

Or maybe he stays because he wants to go to a final four?

If you are an elite recruit and NBA caliber, you want the Final Four, but you aren’t staying 4 years to get it.

I would love to see guys stay four years. But if you are ranked highly and are staying four years, then it probably means you aren’t on NBA radars -in turn meaning you didn’t get developed.

I remember seeing someone’s post on another board about a conversation they had with Zack Randolph. He said he got the hell out of there because Izzo was trying to kill his pro prospects with the way he was playing him.

5 star guys want to make the NBA in 1-2 years. Izzo has had exactly one of those guys in like 10 years. During that span, there have been plenty of highly ranked guys that didn’t even come close to making it to the next level.

Selling you on staying 4 years to get to a Final Four is definitely not something any highly ranked guys want to hear.

I would be surprised if this commitment stuck.

And yet Izzo keeps getting 5 star guys every class or two. So obviously not all of them agree with you.

22
5 stars, 4 years, no NBA - rinse and repeat.

I won’t be shocked when he eventually decommits. Someone will get in his ear and convince him that that place is a graveyard for 5 star players’ future pro prospects.

Or maybe he stays because he wants to go to a final four?

If you are an elite recruit and NBA caliber, you want the Final Four, but you aren’t staying 4 years to get it.

I would love to see guys stay four years. But if you are ranked highly and are staying four years, then it probably means you aren’t on NBA radars -in turn meaning you didn’t get developed.

I remember seeing someone’s post on another board about a conversation they had with Zack Randolph. He said he got the hell out of there because Izzo was trying to kill his pro prospects with the way he was playing him.

5 star guys want to make the NBA in 1-2 years. Izzo has had exactly one of those guys in like 10 years. During that span, there have been plenty of highly ranked guys that didn’t even come close to making it to the next level.

Selling you on staying 4 years to get to a Final Four is definitely not something any highly ranked guys want to hear.

I would be surprised if this commitment stuck.

Come on man… these are some of the most homerish statements I’ve seen in a while. You post the same stuff on MGo as well.

You rip Izzo because he has 5-star guys stay longer than 1-2 years, but what exactly do you consider Zak Irvin? He’ll be a Junior this year, and is nowhere near NBA ready. He’s not in any 2016 mocks, that I’ve seen. He was ranked as high as 14 in one of the scouting services coming out of HS, and many were clamoring how much better he was than Gary Harris. He was #24 overall on Rivals, a 5-star.

Walton was a top-40ish PG and has looked nothing like an NBA player. If Beilein was the sole reason 3-star Burke turned into an NBA product, why hasn’t Walton developed the same way? His injury hampered him this past season, but he hasn’t looked like an NBA talent yet while at UM.

Kam Chatmann was a top-25 talent, and he hasn’t even looked like he belongs in D1. Is he going to leave after this year, or will Beilein “hold him back” like Izzo does? He was ranked a 5-star (#23, #24, #25, #37) on 3 of 4 scouting services.

Or how about GR3? Consensus 5-star, actually ranked ahead of Gary Harris on Rivals. He was considered a lotto pick after his Freshman season, and dropped into the 2nd round after his Sophomore season before he was eventually waived by the T-wolves. Do you not count him as a 5-star that didn’t develop under Beilein? He probably SHOULD have stayed 3-4 years, but that doesn’t fit your narrative.

I also doubt the validity of your Zach Randolph comment. Maybe he and Izzo butted heads while he was there, but they still talk every few weeks, per this article: Michigan State reunion: Randolph, Green and Izzo - ESPN - NBA- ESPN

Also in that article, it mentions Draymond Green. You know, the 3-star chubby and undersized PF that recorded a Triple Double in the title clinching game of NBA Finals? Does Izzo not get credit for him? IMO, Green > every UM player Beilein has put into the NBA, so far.

Stauskas and Gary Harris have had similar rookie campaigns (ie - not much). Burke has done OK, but has a historically low efficiency and was relegated to the bench this season. GR3 was waived from the team that drafted him in the 2nd round, but I think the 76ers picked him up. McGary has showed promise, but injuries have kept him sidelined. Darius Morris left early to be drafted in the 2nd round, started 17 games with the Lakers when Steve Nash was injured (his only 17 starts), and has bounced in and out of the D-league since then. THJ has had a pretty good career, probably the best out of all of Beilein’s players.

The point is… open your eyes a little, and see both sides. It’s convenient to claim that MSU is where 5-stars go to die, but I don’t know if that is really all that true. Dawson was a 5-star and he won’t be drafted, most likely he’ll head to Europe. The two 5-stars MSU landed prior to him (Gary Harris and Payne) were both drafted in the first round, no matter how long they stayed in college. The last 5-star before them was Delvon Roe, who retired from basketball due to his knees, before his college eligibility was even up. And before him, was Shannon Brown who stayed 3 years before going in the first round and winning 2 rings with the Lakers.

23

You have some fair and good points in here, though a few additional thoughts:

(1) Walton gets an “N/A”. It falls way short to claim that the injury “hampered” him but “he hasn’t looked like an NBA talent yet”.

(2) While Izzo gets credit for Green, don’t forget that Beilein discovered him way earlier and pursued him much harder. In today’s world, where the two are on the same tier in terms of program condition, Green ends up at Michigan.

(3) Izzo’s success stories are generally “older” than Beilein’s, and so I think it’s fair to wonder if Izzo’s lost something off his fastball. Time will tell.

24

Recently, Dawson ranked #17, Costello #92 and Valentine #105. For comparison, Chatman #27, Irvin #28, Walton #44 and Donnal #86.

25
5 stars, 4 years, no NBA - rinse and repeat.

I won’t be shocked when he eventually decommits. Someone will get in his ear and convince him that that place is a graveyard for 5 star players’ future pro prospects.

Or maybe he stays because he wants to go to a final four?

If you are an elite recruit and NBA caliber, you want the Final Four, but you aren’t staying 4 years to get it.

I would love to see guys stay four years. But if you are ranked highly and are staying four years, then it probably means you aren’t on NBA radars -in turn meaning you didn’t get developed.

I remember seeing someone’s post on another board about a conversation they had with Zack Randolph. He said he got the hell out of there because Izzo was trying to kill his pro prospects with the way he was playing him.

5 star guys want to make the NBA in 1-2 years. Izzo has had exactly one of those guys in like 10 years. During that span, there have been plenty of highly ranked guys that didn’t even come close to making it to the next level.

Selling you on staying 4 years to get to a Final Four is definitely not something any highly ranked guys want to hear.

I would be surprised if this commitment stuck.

Come on man… these are some of the most homerish statements I’ve seen in a while. You post the same stuff on MGo as well.

You rip Izzo because he has 5-star guys stay longer than 1-2 years, but what exactly do you consider Zak Irvin? He’ll be a Junior this year, and is nowhere near NBA ready. He’s not in any 2016 mocks, that I’ve seen. He was ranked as high as 14 in one of the scouting services coming out of HS, and many were clamoring how much better he was than Gary Harris. He was #24 overall on Rivals, a 5-star.

Walton was a top-40ish PG and has looked nothing like an NBA player. If Beilein was the sole reason 3-star Burke turned into an NBA product, why hasn’t Walton developed the same way? His injury hampered him this past season, but he hasn’t looked like an NBA talent yet while at UM.

Kam Chatmann was a top-25 talent, and he hasn’t even looked like he belongs in D1. Is he going to leave after this year, or will Beilein “hold him back” like Izzo does? He was ranked a 5-star (#23, #24, #25, #37) on 3 of 4 scouting services.

Or how about GR3? Consensus 5-star, actually ranked ahead of Gary Harris on Rivals. He was considered a lotto pick after his Freshman season, and dropped into the 2nd round after his Sophomore season before he was eventually waived by the T-wolves. Do you not count him as a 5-star that didn’t develop under Beilein? He probably SHOULD have stayed 3-4 years, but that doesn’t fit your narrative.

I also doubt the validity of your Zach Randolph comment. Maybe he and Izzo butted heads while he was there, but they still talk every few weeks, per this article: Michigan State reunion: Randolph, Green and Izzo - ESPN - NBA- ESPN

Also in that article, it mentions Draymond Green. You know, the 3-star chubby and undersized PF that recorded a Triple Double in the title clinching game of NBA Finals? Does Izzo not get credit for him? IMO, Green > every UM player Beilein has put into the NBA, so far.

Stauskas and Gary Harris have had similar rookie campaigns (ie - not much). Burke has done OK, but has a historically low efficiency and was relegated to the bench this season. GR3 was waived from the team that drafted him in the 2nd round, but I think the 76ers picked him up. McGary has showed promise, but injuries have kept him sidelined. Darius Morris left early to be drafted in the 2nd round, started 17 games with the Lakers when Steve Nash was injured (his only 17 starts), and has bounced in and out of the D-league since then. THJ has had a pretty good career, probably the best out of all of Beilein’s players.

The point is… open your eyes a little, and see both sides. It’s convenient to claim that MSU is where 5-stars go to die, but I don’t know if that is really all that true. Dawson was a 5-star and he won’t be drafted, most likely he’ll head to Europe. The two 5-stars MSU landed prior to him (Gary Harris and Payne) were both drafted in the first round, no matter how long they stayed in college. The last 5-star before them was Delvon Roe, who retired from basketball due to his knees, before his college eligibility was even up. And before him, was Shannon Brown who stayed 3 years before going in the first round and winning 2 rings with the Lakers.

Oh, look, a Sparty found this website.

Your post is full of nonsense. I won’t address each factual error / illogical assertion, but I will address a few.

First, strawman much? Has anyone, let alone the OP, asserted that JB was the “sole reason” Burke became an NBA product?

Second, Walton has played one full season and maybe a quarter of another. He was a 40ish ranked PG who doesn’t have elite measurables. Only the most homerish of Michigan fans thought he’d be gone after 1-2 years.

Third, Chatman certainly has not looked very good, and certainly does not look like an NBA player at this point in his career. Do we need to list the 5-stars and high 4-stars at MSU that have never even sniffed the league? Marquise Gray was a 5-star to rivals. Izzo really developed him…into a career 4-points-a-game player. Drew Naymick was #34 to Scout. Izzo really took him to the next level (less than 3 points a game over his career). Raymar Morgan was a top-30 recruit. Izzo developed him so well that he regressed over his 4 years and never came close to making the league. Durrell Summers was top 25 to scout. Compared to the rest of this list, he had a pretty good career at MSU. And that got him nowhere near the NBA. Chris Allen was #33 to one service. He had his best year at Iowa State. Kalin Lucas was #35 to rivals. He could have gone pro after his sophomore season. Izzo worked his magic, and Lucas came back and went undrafted. Keith Appling was #27 to ESPN. After being MSU fans’ whipping boy for 4 years, he is currently playing with the Erie Bay Hawks.

You bring up the draft position / NBA careers of Morris, Robinson, Stauskas, and Hardaway. The 1st 3 all got drafted after 2 years. It took Hardaway 3. Morris, Stauskas, and Hardaway were all ranked in the 80s as recruits. Outside of Harris, who, in recent years, has Izzo put into the NBA early?

Back to the RCMB you go.

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Recently, Dawson ranked #17, Costello #92 and Valentine #105. For comparison, Chatman #27, Irvin #28, Walton #44 and Donnal #86.

You are leaving out 2015 and 2016 recruiting where MSU us killing us and it is not even close.

27

No Goodin, No Murray, No Langford, maybe no Battle… This has not been a good summer for Michigan Basketball on the recruiting fronts no matter how you want to slice it. You could be the biggest and most biased UM fan in the world and come to that conclusion.

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The problem I had with JohnNavarre’s post wasn’t how many “busts” Izzo has had, it is that he states it like Beilein is some magician that never has a bust. You just listed 7 players over the course of more than 12 years, of Izzo “busts”. One of them tore his achilles (Lucas, who was not considered a 1st rounder even after his Soph year). One of them was kicked off the team (Allen) for disciplinary reasons. Two of them you are ranking them better than they actually were ranked (Naymick was never ranked #34, that was his jersey #. Raymar Morgan was not top-30 in any of the recruiting services, he was mid-30s on most, but not “top30” like you claim). You rip on Appling, but B1G POY was between him and Stauskas before he injured his wrist. Gray was a bust relative to his ranking (#21 overall on Rivals, #34-50 on the other sites).

Izzo “somehow” keeps his higher ranked players around for more than 1-2 years, and people fault him for that. Maybe GR3 should’ve stayed around a bit longer, and he could’ve worked on his game to actually stay in the NBA. But hey, lets chalk that one up as another “win” for Beilein, because he got a 5-star player that was a lotto pick as a freshman, drafted in the 2nd round as a sophomore.

The fact that anyone even thinks it is a negative for a higher ranked player to stay longer than 2 years is asinine. Draymond Green stayed 4 years and his senior year won B1G POY, was an All American, and now this offseason he will be negotiating for a Max contract. Not even a flame, but will Robinson and Morris even get offered another contract? Was it “worth” it for them to leave early with no degree, and 2-3 years later maybe not even be in the NBA?

Me bringing up the Beilien players isn’t to flame him, its to show the bias that gets posted. You can clamor about Izzo “turning 5stars into 4 year busts”, but you will also have to concede that Beilein has had a few busts as well, if a 5-star player should only stay 1-2 years. Irvin will now be at UM for at least 3 years, most likely 4. Kam Chatmann will be at UM for 2 next season, and unless he completely tears it up - he’ll be there longer than 2 years as well. Do we get to chalk those 2 up as “Beilein busts” since they didn’t leave after 1-2 years?

29

In Robinson, Beilein didn’t “get a 5-star player that was a lotto pick as a freshman”, he “got” a 3-star player that then blew up in the rankings and ultimately became a 5-star. Beilein gets points for talent identification, though talent development (which, yes, is the topic of this debate) is more questionable.

It’s not a negative to keep a higher ranked player for longer than 2 years if you can keep reeling in higher ranked players. I think the point being made is that higher ranked players shouldn’t go to a program/coach where they are consistently underperforming their ranking with respect to pro career. But if Izzo can keep selling the dream, then more power to him; it certainly doesn’t reflect negatively on him, just frustrating to see as it is plausible that the recent track record could start to hurt him.

With respect to Beilein’s “busts”…you can’t credit Draymond’s senior year as being so meaningful and then turn around and start labeling Beilein’s busts that aren’t seniors yet. Irvin, Walton, Chatman, and others may well ultimately underperform their recruiting rankings, but we won’t know until they’ve exhausted their eligibility.

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The problem I had with JohnNavarre's post wasn't how many "busts" Izzo has had, it is that he states it like Beilein is some magician that never has a bust. You just listed 7 players over the course of more than 12 years, of Izzo "busts". One of them tore his achilles (Lucas, who was not considered a 1st rounder even after his Soph year). One of them was kicked off the team (Allen) for disciplinary reasons. Two of them you are ranking them better than they actually were ranked (Naymick was never ranked #34, that was his jersey #. Raymar Morgan was not top-30 in any of the recruiting services, he was mid-30s on most, but not "top30" like you claim). You rip on Appling, but B1G POY was between him and Stauskas before he injured his wrist. Gray was a bust relative to his ranking (#21 overall on Rivals, #34-50 on the other sites).

Izzo “somehow” keeps his higher ranked players around for more than 1-2 years, and people fault him for that. Maybe GR3 should’ve stayed around a bit longer, and he could’ve worked on his game to actually stay in the NBA. But hey, lets chalk that one up as another “win” for Beilein, because he got a 5-star player that was a lotto pick as a freshman, drafted in the 2nd round as a sophomore.

The fact that anyone even thinks it is a negative for a higher ranked player to stay longer than 2 years is asinine. Draymond Green stayed 4 years and his senior year won B1G POY, was an All American, and now this offseason he will be negotiating for a Max contract. Not even a flame, but will Robinson and Morris even get offered another contract? Was it “worth” it for them to leave early with no degree, and 2-3 years later maybe not even be in the NBA?

Me bringing up the Beilien players isn’t to flame him, its to show the bias that gets posted. You can clamor about Izzo “turning 5stars into 4 year busts”, but you will also have to concede that Beilein has had a few busts as well, if a 5-star player should only stay 1-2 years. Irvin will now be at UM for at least 3 years, most likely 4. Kam Chatmann will be at UM for 2 next season, and unless he completely tears it up - he’ll be there longer than 2 years as well. Do we get to chalk those 2 up as “Beilein busts” since they didn’t leave after 1-2 years?

You use quotes around words and phrases that I never wrote. Either you don’t know how quotes work or you are being disingenuous.

You also greatly mischaracterize people’s arguments. You claim that JohnNavarre “states it like Beilein is some magician that never has a bust.” That is not at all what he said in the post you quoted (or in any other post in this thread). In fact, he didn’t even mention JB. Quit creating strawmen.

As far as I can tell, JohnNavarre only said 2 things that could be considered objectionable in the quoted post: The conversation with Randolph and questioning whether the Langford commitment will stick. “If you are an elite recruit and NBA caliber, you want the Final Four, but you aren’t staying 4 years to get it.” Do you disagree with that? “5 star guys want to make the NBA in 1-2 years. Izzo has had exactly one of those guys in like 10 years. During that span, there have been plenty of highly ranked guys that didn’t even come close to making it to the next level.” Do you disagree with this? "Selling you on staying 4 years to get to a Final Four is definitely not something any highly ranked guys want to hear. " Do you disagree with this?

To be considered a bust, one has to be highly touted in the first place. I will acknowledge that Izzo is definitely a better salesman than JB. He has brought in a lot of highly touted players. JB has not brought in nearly as many. During his tenure, the only players that I can think of that could truly be considered busts are Carlton Brundage, Evan Smot, and Matt Vogrich. And none of those guys were even near the 5-star range. I am not yet going to call Donnal or Chatman busts. If we extend the range of busts to include players ranked in the 80s (like the aforementioned Michigan players), then Izzo’s list of busts is incredibly long.

“You rip on Appling, but B1G POY was between him and Stauskas before he injured his wrist.” Didn’t Appling hurt his risk in the UNC game? That game was early December, before the B1G even started. I didn’t realize that he was a co-favorite for an end of the season award at that point. And to think, your fanbase makes fun of Michigan for crowning September Heismans.

The whole point of the argument that you initially responded to is that highly ranked players do not want to be in school for 4 years. You have done absolutely nothing in your semi-coherent ramblings to refute that point.

If a 5-star or high 4-star player wants to get in the league in 1-2 years and win a lot of games in those 1-2 years, there are a lot of places he should consider going before MSU.

31
In Robinson, Beilein didn't "get a 5-star player that was a lotto pick as a freshman", he "got" a 3-star player that then blew up in the rankings and ultimately became a 5-star. Beilein gets points for talent identification, though talent development (which, yes, is the topic of this debate) is more questionable.

It’s not a negative to keep a higher ranked player for longer than 2 years if you can keep reeling in higher ranked players. I think the point being made is that higher ranked players shouldn’t go to a program/coach where they are consistently underperforming their ranking with respect to pro career. But if Izzo can keep selling the dream, then more power to him; it certainly doesn’t reflect negatively on him, just frustrating to see as it is plausible that the recent track record could start to hurt him.

With respect to Beilein’s “busts”…you can’t credit Draymond’s senior year as being so meaningful and then turn around and start labeling Beilein’s busts that aren’t seniors yet. Irvin, Walton, Chatman, and others may well ultimately underperform their recruiting rankings, but we won’t know until they’ve exhausted their eligibility.

Good post. I agree with most of it. I in no way consider those last 3 you mentioned as busts, even now before their senior seasons. Walton is a very good college PG, and still has 2 more seasons to improve. That said, I’m not totally sold on him as an NBA player. He’s a phenomenal rebounder, a very good shooter, but I don’t think he currently has the vision and playmaking ability that someone with his size, would need to make it in the NBA. Does that mean he’s a bust if he doesn’t get drafted? If he goes Euro is he a bust?

That’s my point. There are only 60 spots in the NBA draft, with only the first 30 actually being guaranteed contracts. You have to be the very best of the best, AND have the size and measurables to get drafted and contribute in the NBA. I don’t think there is any way to correlate pro career underperforming based on subjective rankings. Only the very elite, top 5-10are true locks for an NBA career - even then, there are busts. . Again, 60 spots total to be made up of 350+ D1 colleges, with 13 roster spots each, plus foreign. Being ranked 17th in one single recruiting class guarantees nothing.

I’m a fan of college sports more than pro. I’d rather see 4 years of a player and then success afterwards, than 2 years of a player who has to go to the draft to lock in his spot, when he might not even be ready. I’m fairly sure Izzo has never held back anyone who was a for sure first rounder. If a player is ready after 1, he should go. If he’s not guaranteed a first round spot, he should probably stay.

32

I can’t even read all of this but I’ll just say I’m more worried about what Beilein’s doing than Izzo.

Good for Izzo getting Langford. I hate to see MSU succeed but they put themselves in that position.

33

MileHigh (LetsBeReal), you trash JOHNNAVARRE for posting with ridiculous Michigan bias and then turn around and post with ridiculous Michigan St. bias? If you are going to clamor for objectivity, then show some yourself.

34

Alum05 - I apologize for the incoherent ramblings, the last 2 posts were on my phone and the site was getting wonky. Also, when I hit the quote button, it not only quotes the post I wanted it to - but it quotes the prior post as well, pushing me over the character limit.

In any case, I’m not trying to get into a back and forth battle about Beilein vs. Izzo. Both are great coaches. I guess it all depends on what you consider a “bust”. If a 5-star guy stays 4 years, I don’t consider that a bust. Adreian Payne stayed 4 years, got a degree, and was still drafted #15 overall. He was never going to be drafted higher than what he ended up being drafted at, his senior season. According to the previous logic in this thread, Izzo must’ve held him back because 5-stars are only supposed to stay 1-2 years.

That leads into why I brought up Zak Irvin. He was a 5-star, and is now staying in college longer than the 1-2 years previously specified in this thread. Is he now a bust, since he didn’t leave early even though he was highly ranked? If he ends up staying 4 years, but is still drafted (like Payne) - is he a bust? If he ends up staying 4 years, but doesn’t get drafted, maybe works out for some teams, plays D-league or goes Euro - is he a bust (similar to what Dawson will probably do)?

The “strawman” of bringing Beilein up was because Navarre mentioned it like it is a guarantee that if you are a 5-star under Izzo, you are going to stay 4 years and have no NBA career. Payne was a 5-star that stayed 4 years, and was drafted in 1st round. Gary Harris was a 5-star that stayed 2 years, and was drafted first round. Dawson was a 5-star that stayed 4 years, and probably will not be drafted. So 2 out of his last 3 5-stars went in the first round. You are right that Izzo hasn’t had a ton of early entrants, but who would you have considered that should have left early from MSU? Maybe Kalin Lucas (not a 5-star on any site) after his Sophomore year?

So in his time at UM, Beilein has had a few 5-stars. GR3 stayed 2 years, drafted 2nd round, and was waived from his team. Zak Irvin will now be at UM for at least 3 years, and does not project as a draft pick at this current time (though he could after this season, or his Sr season). Chatmann will be in year 2 at UM this season, and I doubt he’s going early after this year. Are those guys all “busts” - because they either stayed longer than 1-2 years, or weren’t drafted high enough relative to their HS ranking? Notice how Navarre conveniently didn’t mention these guys for UM, when he was ranting that 5-stars should only stay 1-2 years?

For your question on “If you are an elite recruit and NBA caliber, you want the Final Four, but you aren’t staying 4 years to get it” - it depends on your expectations. I don’t think it is a guarantee that a 5-star has a future NBA career, unless you are talking the top 5 to maybe top 10 guys per class. Even then, it’s not guaranteed. A lot depends on the player them self, how much work they put in, etc. Calipari has put an insane amount of players into the NBA, just in the last 5 years. But what about Alex Poythress? He was RSCI #8, and will be a Senior this year and is not on any mocks. What about the Harrison twins? Both top-10 RSCI, both projected as 2nd rounders at best. Marquis Teague was #7 RSCI - in and out of the D league. Those guys were all the absolute cream of the crop in their respective classes, and still aren’t for-sure NBA players.

I also think that some of you are only seeing Beilein’s last 3 years, and believing that should be the expectation going forward in regards to NBA draft picks. After Levert, who else is a sure-fire NBA draft pick on UM? Beilein had an incredible run for the last 3 or so years, in regards to the NBA - but I don’t think it is the “norm” to take 4-star Stauskas and turn him into a lotto pick. 3-star Levert into a first rounder. 3/4-star Burke into a lotto pick. While I am in no way taking credit away from Beilein for those players, don’t you have to question why he didn’t turn other 3-stars into NBA players for the first 20 years of his career? Or why only Levert is considered a draft pick at this time, with 12 other scholarship players on UM’s current roster (some 5-stars, some 4-stars, some 3-stars)?

In regards to Appling, he did injure his wrist against UNC but looked to have some pretty good games all the way up until the Georgetown game. Can’t recall why he slumped after that, which was about half way through the B1G season. If you use his stats for the first 21 games, he was averaging 15.4ppg, 4.9apg (to 1.95tpg), 3.5rpg, 1.3spg, and shooting 37% from 3. Starting with the Georgetown game, he only scored in double figures 2 more times in the last 13 games of that season. For comparison, Stuaskas for the first 21 games was shooting 41% from 3, 17.3ppg, 3.8apg (to 1.7tpg), 3.5rpg, and 0.8spg. Stauskas still better at that point, but it was much closer then than it was by the end of the season.

Sorry for the long posts. Mostly good discussion so far, but I’ll quit posting if people think I’m only here to cause trouble.

35

LetsBeReal–no need for you to leave this forum. I think most of us here appreciate an opposing point of view. I get annoyed, however, when someone seems to purposely mischaracterize someone else’s arguments to make a point. Moving on…

In one breath, you say “I don’t think it is a guarantee that a 5-star has a future NBA career, unless you are talking the top 5 to maybe top 10 guys per class.” Then in another breath you bring up GR3 as an example of a Michigan 5-star bust. GR3 was certainly not a top 5-10 guy in his class. Nevertheless, he was drafted after only 2 years in college. What happens once a player gets to the league is a different argument for a different time.

You bringing up Beilein’s past is also a different argument. I have always maintained that JB is not a great salesman. He hasn’t brought in many highly sought-after recruits. The original argument pertained to high level recruits and whether they make / don’t make the NBA. Regardless of whether the expectations are justified or not, 5-stars and high 4-stars expect to make it to the NBA, and most don’t want to waste 4 years trying to get there. In that specific regard, Izzo’s track record has not been good. He wins a lot of games, which is great for MSU. But people are justified in questioning why highly sought-after players (who want to get to the NBA as soon as possible) continue to go play for him.

36

Here’s the bottom line: guys leave for the NBA when they will get drafted. Only Gary Harris has left MSU early in recent years. At Michigan, all of Morris, Stauskas, Burke, Hardaway, and McGary have left early and have been drafted, and among them, only Hardaway even played three years - the rest played two.

So between UM and MSU, UM has a much better recent track record of getting guys to the NBA faster. How is that even debateable?

37

I even forgot to add Robinson to that list.

38

Classic MileHigh…

Prefaces his post with “I’m not trying to get into a back and forth between Beilein and Izzo” and then spends an absurd amount of time taking shots at Beilein veiled behind the preface.

He’s been doing this for the past year on the Rivals national board. He’s a great poster when it comes to anything not Michigan related, but he has to be the antagonist in any and all things involving U of M. His clever writing is filled with strawman points and backhanded compliments. It’s not really worth the effort because at the end of the day the discussion is going nowhere.

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In Robinson, Beilein didn't "get a 5-star player that was a lotto pick as a freshman", he "got" a 3-star player that then blew up in the rankings and ultimately became a 5-star. Beilein gets points for talent identification, though talent development (which, yes, is the topic of this debate) is more questionable.

It’s not a negative to keep a higher ranked player for longer than 2 years if you can keep reeling in higher ranked players. I think the point being made is that higher ranked players shouldn’t go to a program/coach where they are consistently underperforming their ranking with respect to pro career. But if Izzo can keep selling the dream, then more power to him; it certainly doesn’t reflect negatively on him, just frustrating to see as it is plausible that the recent track record could start to hurt him.

With respect to Beilein’s “busts”…you can’t credit Draymond’s senior year as being so meaningful and then turn around and start labeling Beilein’s busts that aren’t seniors yet. Irvin, Walton, Chatman, and others may well ultimately underperform their recruiting rankings, but we won’t know until they’ve exhausted their eligibility.

Well Brundidge and Smote were certainly busts from a talent identification perspective. JB does a great job in that area, but he is human and misses from time to time, just like Izzo and other top coaches.

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Again, good discussion. I think there is a difference in our viewpoints, and what we’d prefer as fans.

Alum05 - you mention those “who want to get the NBA as soon as possible” - I don’t believe every kid is like that. The kids that are like that, normally don’t come to MSU or UM. They go to UK, Duke, Kansas, UNC. Langford will be MSU’s highest rated recruit since Shannon Brown in 2003 (other than Delvon Roe, who was RSCI 10 but blew out his knee his Sr year of HS).

I only bring up GR3 as a comparison. I’m not saying he’s a bust, I’m only using the word “bust” because that is what some posters think you are, if you’re a 5-star that stays longer than 2 years. I don’t know the dynamics of Beilein and GR3’s relationship, but if scouts were telling him he was going to be a 2nd rounder - UM probably should have pushed him to stay. Maybe they did, and he chose to ignore them? Not only would it have given him a chance to develop further, but he could’ve had a large impact on this past season for UM (esp when Levert and Walton went down, and they needed help) which could have boosted his stock. Instead, he went 2nd round, barely played, and was ultimately waived. Now he’s sort of in limbo. Is he going to get another shot?

LA-Wolverine: There is no argument that UM has put more early entrants into the NBA than MSU has recently. But my argument to that would be - were some of them really worth it? Was it worth it for GR3 to leave early to go 2nd round when he obviously wasn’t ready? I think it worked out for Darius Morris even as a 2nd round pick, as he still made a good chunk of money. But was his draft stock really at it’s highest after his Sophomore year, as a 2nd rounder? What if he would’ve stayed 1 more year and played himself into the first round? Then he would’ve gotten a guaranteed 3-year contract.

Here’s what he’s made in the NBA so far: http://www.spotrac.com/nba/brooklyn-nets/darius-morris/cash-earnings/

Here’s what the Rookie payscale was for 2012-13, if he would’ve stayed another season and made it into the 1st round: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2013

I’d still consider him a success, as he’s made a couple million. But a lot of guys in the 2nd round don’t even make rosters, or are later waived and their contracts aren’t guaranteed. Now they’re no longer eligible for college, so they are forced to play D-league for $30k a year, or go to Europe (which actually isn’t that bad of a gig).

Payne could’ve left before his Senior season and most likely would’ve been drafted in the 2nd round. He came back for his Senior season, after he was considered as a fringe 1st rounder / early 2nd rounder. He stayed, graduated with a degree, and went Top-15 in the draft last season. I think he made the right move, even if he probably could’ve made a roster even as a 2nd round pick. So maybe he “hurt” Izzo’s record by not having another early entrant, but probably helped himself (and MSU) more overall, in the long run.

For a few of those UM early entrants, I don’t blame them for leaving early. Burke and Stauskas were lottery picks, so there is absolutely no reason they should’ve stayed. Not to discredit them, but their performances in the NBA so far do not seem to have correlated with their play, relative to their draft spot. The Jazz drafted another PG (Exum) the very next draft after Burke, and then started him in favor of Burke for the 2nd half of this past NBA season. Stauskas has had some trouble adjusting - I think he’ll figure it out. Can’t blame either of them for turning down guaranteed contracts though. McGary with his injury issues, I think he had to go as well. If he gets healthy he can be a beast, but he’s had injuries for 2-3 straight seasons now - it was time to cash in. THJ has been the most impressive Beilein player so far in the NBA, and I don’t think staying another year would have boosted his stock any further. He made the right move.