I just loathe a reality of Donnal/Wilson as our bigger 4 men, outside of Irvin/Chatman manning the position and getting destroyed on D
My, my, my…interesting how your concerns mirror my own in relation to certain players. Just saying…
I think Wilson will be great but he needs two years of limited action and getting himself physically right
With the current rules in college basketball (ie 1 and done) I don’t like the thought of “projects” such as Wilson. Essentially, you have a player occupying a roster spot that could be taken by a player that is potentially readly to play immediately (at least 1 end of the floor), whereas other teams are filling their rosters with players that are ready to play now - I think it puts Michigan at a competitive disadvantage when we have impact players at certain positions that are graduating - WHICH IS EXACTLY THE SITUATION WE ARE FACING RIGHT NOW.
Can you imagine facing Indiana with Blackmon Jr and Bolden? Would make me sick.
My point exactly. Today’s college basketball climate compels teams to re-load not rebuild. In my opinion, coming off a national championship game, we should be more selective to the extent that we reload rather than rebuild. Replacing players like McGary and GR3 with the likes of Wilson, rather than Bolden, is an extreme dropoff in my opinion. In retrospect, I’m sure if you had known that we would take Wilson OR Bolden rather than Wilson AND Bolden, your opinions would have been a bit more pessimistic in regards to taking Wilson. Simply put, if you are going to replace McGary and/or GR3 with a first year DJ Wilson, your team is going to suffer in production by a wide margin.
Russ Smith, Peyton Siva, Gorgui Dieng, Chase Behanen, Luke Hancock, THJr, Trey Burke, James Southerland, CJ Fair, Brandon Triche, Michael Carter Willaims, and the entire Wichita State team disagree that only freshmen matter in college basketball.
Now, it’s of course true that it’s harder to win with DJ Wilson than McGary. But, assuming GRIII and McGary leave, a 2014 team with Walton, Stauskus, Irvin, Chatman, and Donnal – all consensus four or five stars – with upperclassmen LeVert, Horford, and Albrecht, could afford to let Wilson (and/or Doyle) play a supporting role or even develop for a year, if necessary. It’s not like we haven’t brought anyone in since 2012 except for DJ Wilson.
Kentucky in general does agree.
That being said, you are comparing apples to oranges - the individuals you just mentioned were more highly touted (with the exception of Hancock/Smith) coming out of high school than DJ Wilson, so not really a fair comparison in terms of talent level. In terms of Wichita State, sure they had a nice run as a Cinderella team last year, but what is the likelihood they are a contender on a regular basis - I’d venture to say not very high. Face it, the Kentuckys of the world are going to compete at a high level year in and year out, simply because they have the talent to do so.
Secondly, if you think for 1 second that a team with a starting frontcourt of Horford and any combination of Donnal/Doyle/Wilson can be effective next, you’re in for a serious surprise next year.
It’s not about a dropoff, that’s a given, the question is how steep do you want the dropoff to be? Hence the need for immediate impact players, at least on 1 side of the court - that’s how you avoid lulls in recruiting - WINNING CONSISTENTLY WITHOUT BIG DROPOFFS IN PRODUCTION
Did Kentucky lose in the first round of the NIT last year? Or was that just my imagination. Seems like a BIG DROPOFF IN PRODUCTION.
Louisville had a great mix of talent - highly rated kids, glue guys, etc. No one is denying that you need talent to win.
The problem isn’t that DJ Wilson isn’t an All-American. Sure it would be nice to have Kevon Looney but you can’t build a program to rely on guys like him. If you want to point to a problem it’s probably that there wasn’t a DJ Wilson a couple of classes ago. Michigan didn’t recruit like GR3 (and to a lesser extent) Mitch McGary was one-and-done.
But this is also a program that was pretty successful with Jordan Morgan as it’s only big guy for a while. Perhaps they won’t be National Title contenders but are you telling me a frontcourt with Horford/Bielfeldt/Donnal/Doyle/Wilson/Chatman can’t be at least competitive with Walton, Irvin, Stauskas and LeVert as perimeter options?
2013 was a weak class an anomaly
No one is saying Wilson does not have value but how do you not pursue Bolden?
Did Kentucky lose in the first round of the NIT last year? Or was that just my imagination. Seems like a BIG DROPOFF IN PRODUCTION.Louisville had a great mix of talent - highly rated kids, glue guys, etc. No one is denying that you need talent to win.
The problem isn’t that DJ Wilson isn’t an All-American. Sure it would be nice to have Kevon Looney but you can’t build a program to rely on guys like him. If you want to point to a problem it’s probably that there wasn’t a DJ Wilson a couple of classes ago. Michigan didn’t recruit like GR3 (and to a lesser extent) Mitch McGary was one-and-done.
But this is also a program that was pretty successful with Jordan Morgan as it’s only big guy for a while. Perhaps they won’t be National Title contenders but are you telling me a frontcourt with Horford/Bielfeldt/Donnal/Doyle/Wilson/Chatman can’t be at least competitive with Walton, Irvin, Stauskas and LeVert as perimeter options?
Ok Dylan, if you want to play devil’s advocate in the face of reality, let’s play the game my friend.
Kentucky, did in fact lose in the first round of the NIT last year. That being said, what is UK currently ranked? That being said, would you take Kentucky against the field of 64 this year? That being said, is Kentucky going to be more successful than the other 99.99% of college basketball teams in the foreseeable future? Spare me the exceptions, we all know what the standard is with UK, they are simply the most talented team year in and year out, period.
Sure they suffered a big dropoff in production, but will that dropoff be longterm? Hell no it won’t. And why? I’ll tell you why, because each and every year they reload with 5 top 30ish type players, THEY DON’T REBUILD THEY RELOAD WITH ELITE TALENT.
Now I’m not saying Michigan can do that, because quite frankly our program isn’t that good yet. That being said, we don’t have to settle, BE MORE SELECTIVE. Nobody in their right damn mind would take DJ freaking Wilson over Bolden, it’s just that simple. With all due respect to DJ, there is simply no way in hell that any competent coach would take that dude over Bolden. If it is indeed a Wilson OR Bolden choice, then the coaching staff made a mistake in my opinion. You have to look at the cost/benefit analysis - the benefit to getting DJ Wilson is that you MIGHT have a decent player 3 years from now, while the cost is the likelihood that you miss out on what was seemingly a Michigan lean that would have made an instant impact with. I’d take the risk with Bolden 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Seems like an easy choice to me, but what the hell do I know?
Common sense would tell anybody that if you replace an All American and an All Big Ten player with a player that is at least 2 years away from being a positive impact on the team (using Guestavo’s projection) here, then you will have a dropoff in production. If you are banking on Horford who has shown only marginal improvement during his entire tenure (and that is being generous), Bielfeldt who is simply occupying space, Donnal who certainly needs time to work on his body, Chatman who isn’t really a post player, and 2 freshman to replace those players and be competitive then I would suggest you reexamine things.
I guess it depends on what you define as competitive - if losing in the 1st/2nd round is acceptable to you, then hey, have at it, BUT I WANT MORE. Michigan is on the brink of being not just relevant, but PROMINENT, IF they can sustain success. But I simply don’t think you can be successful with Horford and 1 of Bielfeldt/Donnal/Wilson starting next year. That is absolute disaster on the defensive end of the court and we all know it. Hell, it’s bad now with Horford and Morgan, and Morgan is a hell of a lot better than Horford or any of those other players.
C’mon buddy, let’s face reality here.
I like Jonah Bolden, I think he’s a talented player. Michigan has shown interest and is recruiting him. His highlight videos are impressive and I’d always be for adding a top-50 guy into the mix. But he’s not a guy that’s going to morph Michigan’s front line into defensive world beaters.
Here’s how ESPN defined Bolden’s weaknesses:
Weaknesses: Painfully thin and it affects him as he gets closer to the basket in traffic as he easily gets pushed off his spot and isn't great at taking contact. Strength will enhance his low post game both offensively and defensively. He should develop a mid or low post game to compliment his face up talent. A gifted player with versatility he need to get acclimated to the physicality of the game here in the states. Bottom Line: His ceiling is what get you excited but the bigger question lies in his lack of toughness. His demeanor as to whether or not he will be more vocal and aggressive will be a telling sign if he is going to fully develop his gifts. Plenty to work with from an athletic standpoint and even more from an overall skill to size ratio. His dad Bruce was a great player at Boise State as well as professionally in Australia.
He’s a three/four combo and that’s fine. Michigan is going to play combo forwards for the foreseeable future and they aren’t the only school in college basketball to play four-out and it’s plenty successful.
I still can’t understand why we would take Blackmon Jr/ Booker with a full backcourt but not pursue someone who plays a position we are painfully thing at? Not to mention, we are going to lose him to either a team we will see in the tournament or even worse, B1G.
Listen, without getting to analytical, the biggest problem Michigan has faced in the Coach B era is rebounding/interior defense/toughness.
Taking that into account, a frontline of Horford and any of the potential players to start at the 4 next year doesn’t improve upon those areas, in fact I think most would agree it’s a pretty significant dropoff. Donnal, Doyal, Wilson aren’t players that provide an interior presence if we’re being honest.
Now I’m not saying that Bolden is an interior presence, but you have to look at things in totality - if X player isn’t going to be a factor on the inside, what can X player bring to the table that will offset that issue. Quite frankly, I don’t think that a Horford, a redshirt freshman in Donnal, and 2 incoming freshman can provide enough on offense to mitigate that problem, and I think anybody else would be hard pressed to make that claim as well. On the other hand, I think Bolden has the potential to offset whatever issues he would have on the interior.
Bottom line is this, I think at some point Coach B needs to recruit players that are more defensive oriented in the post and more proficient in the post on offense. I love his philosophy for the guards/wings, but I absolutely HATE getting punked by MSU, Wisc, OSU, simply because they have bigs that are 10 times more physical than our bigs. It’s pitiful, and it needs to be addressed. We have enough damn shooters, we need to diversify our game, even on offense. Even against Wayne State, all we did in halfcourt sets is pass the ball around the damn perimeter for the first 6 minutes without generating any space because we don’t have a big that can command a double team in the post. The only play we can really run a halfcourt offense with any efficiency is the P and R, and that shouldn’t be the case.
At some point, you have to recruit actual bigs, not shooting guards that are 6’8. That is the reason why we’re raising a final four banner rather than a championship banner on Friday.
Guys, MattD is completely right. Beilein is totally screwing up. All he needs to do is RECRUIT LIKE KENTUCKY! Can’t you see that?? Why isn’t he choosing to walk out and pick up top rated classes year after year?? He’s blowing it!
OK, on a more serious note, you’re completely overlooking a few things, Matt. (1) Michigan runs a cleaner program than most elite kids are going to flock to, (2) Fit is extremely important, and perhaps Looney and/or Bolden simply don’t have the type of personality that this staff is looking for, and (3) Bolden said himself in that article that he views himself as a 3. Maybe he doesn’t want to play a stretch 4 (“other 3”) in Michigan’s system. And that’s his prerogative.
First off, did I say Beilein is “completely screwing up” or that we need to “recruit like Kentucky”, or was that simply your limited perception of my post?
Moving right along, the essence of my post is that we don’t have enough of an interior presence/defense/rebounding, and this is the factor that is holding us back in my opinion.
Responding to your factors in order
(1) I would tend to agree, but that’s not an excuse in my estimation. Do we run a cleaner program than Duke? Obtaining talent has to do with winning primarily, and the local talent base among other factors
(2) Could it be possible that Bolden is correct (assuming Michigan is recruiting him at the 4), that maybe he is better at the 3, and is able to identify the fact that playing the 4 has inherent flaws? Maybe the problem is that Beilien is recruiting 3s to do the job of a 4 and recruits can see the potential problems associated with that.
Fit is extremely important, and perhaps recruiting bigs that are really 6’6 - 6’8 shooting guards isn’t the right fit to win a national championship. Not saying the formula can’t work, but I know one thing, we need more of an interior presence, and when we were beat last year it was due to a lack of an interior presence…period.
You didn’t say that Beilein is “screwing up” quote-unquote but you yelled in all-caps that he needs to BE MORE SELECTIVE, that no coach “in their right mind” would choose Wilson over Bolden, and that he needs to recruit tougher guys with more interior presence, that Jonah Bolden, a high school kid in Australia knows better than John Beilein who should be a 3 and who should be a 4. Doesn’t that imply you think he’s not doing it right?
You didn’t say we need to “recruit like Kentucky” (you agreed we can’t) but you did say we simply need to reload with elite talent rather than get guys that take time to develop. Well, you know what, there’s a reason why there aren’t that many of those guys to go around and if Beilein could reel 'em in through simple conscious choice, I’m sure he would.
I think you’d be surprised about Duke.
MattD, I think you might be surprised about where DJ Wilson fits in with how some of the guys I mentioned were touted: (Rivals Rankings) - DJ Wilson, 135 (could rise, even you have said Wilson is underrated), CJ Fair - 94, Keita - unranked 3 star, Triche - 142, Southerland - unranked 3 star, MCW - 29 (what Chatman is ranked, FWIW), Russ Smith - unranked 3 star, Dieng - 44, Siva - 39. So it’s not like 'Cuse had a bunch of senior All-Americans. Pretty much every program takes some guys like this. Naadir Tharpe was ranked 92 with an offer list comparable to Wilson. Aaron Craft was ranked 111, Trey McDonald was an unranked 3-star, Della Valle was an unranked 3-star. It’s not settling to take guys outside the top 20, it’s what just about everyone does. OSU, 'Cuse, and Michigan have been pretty successful taking guys like this. Beilein and co have proven particularly good at picking guys who will do okay. THJr and Trey were not particularly more touted than Wilson is.
Anyway, of course you have a better chance for year-in, year-out success with some higher ranked guys. Luckily, we’ve been getting some of those guys too, like Irvin, Walton, Chatman, etc.
Also, KY was ranked 3 preseason last year, so the “where are they ranked now” argument doesn’t hold a ton of water. Generally, they will probably be pretty darn good, but with freshmen there might be more variance.
And yes, I think a 2014 team with a frontcourt mix of Horford (RsSr), Donnal (So), Doyle (Fr), Irvin (So), Bielfeldt (RS Jr), could be successful. After all, a frontcourt mix of Novak, Morgan, and Smotrycz won a B1G championship. Michigan was pretty good last year even when McGary was on the bench. Still, would I like to add Zimmerman in 2015? Yes. Would JB have signed Looney? I’m guessing so. But UM has won four out of the last six against MSU and two out of the last five with OSU, so the team isn’t exactly getting demolished against these guys.
Finally, I just want to make sure you understand how I and probably other posters perceive your comments. They almost uniformly criticize the team, the coaches, and the players. And they disapprove of the coaches and wish most of the current players were different and the majority of recruits weren’t coming.
You didn't say that Beilein is "screwing up" quote-unquote but you yelled in all-caps that he needs to BE MORE SELECTIVE, that no coach "in their right mind" would choose Wilson over Bolden, and that he needs to recruit tougher guys with more interior presence, that Jonah Bolden, a high school kid in Australia knows better than John Beilein who should be a 3 and who should be a 4. Doesn't that imply you think he's not doing it right?You didn’t say we need to “recruit like Kentucky” (you agreed we can’t) but you did say we simply need to reload with elite talent rather than get guys that take time to develop. Well, you know what, there’s a reason why there aren’t that many of those guys to go around and if Beilein could reel 'em in through simple conscious choice, I’m sure he would.
I think you’d be surprised about Duke.
Not implying that Bolden has more knowledge than Beilein, simply stating that Bolden may PERCEIVE that playing out of position has limitations, and thus he doesn’t come here. At the end of the day, if playing small ball prevents us from getting certain players because our schematic intent is to play that way, then yes, that could be a problem.
To be honest, if the coaches actually chose Wilson RATHER than Bolden, then yes, in that particular situation, I am indeed stating, that Beilein made the wrong choice and isn’t “doing it right” in that scenario. 99.99% of the educated basketball population agrees with that and we all know it, so don’t act as if blasphemy is taking place.
There are indeed guys like that to go around, but for whatever reason, we are seemingly getting outworked by other coaches on the recruiting trail of late (ie Booker saying UK “brought the house”, Looney saying “relationship with Michigan coaches wasn’t good”, Bolden saying Michigan “isn’t working on him the hardest”). Of course, none of use can speak factually about the recruiting effort of the coaching staff (or apparent lack of), but the old saying goes, where there is smoke there is fire.
MattD, I think you might be surprised about where DJ Wilson fits in with how some of the guys I mentioned were touted: (Rivals Rankings) - DJ Wilson, 135 (could rise, even you have said Wilson is underrated), CJ Fair - 94, Keita - unranked 3 star, Triche - 142, Southerland - unranked 3 star, MCW - 29 (what Chatman is ranked, FWIW), Russ Smith - unranked 3 star, Dieng - 44, Siva - 39. So it's not like 'Cuse had a bunch of senior All-Americans. Pretty much every program takes some guys like this. Naadir Tharpe was ranked 92 with an offer list comparable to Wilson. Aaron Craft was ranked 111, Trey McDonald was an unranked 3-star, Della Valle was an unranked 3-star. It's not settling to take guys outside the top 20, it's what just about everyone does. OSU, 'Cuse, and Michigan have been pretty successful taking guys like this. Beilein and co have proven particularly good at picking guys who will do okay. THJr and Trey were not particularly more touted than Wilson is.Also, KY was ranked 3 preseason last year, so the “where are they ranked now” argument doesn’t hold a ton of water. Generally, they will probably be pretty darn good, but with freshmen there might be more variance.
And yes, I think a 2014 team with a frontcourt mix of Horford (RsSr), Donnal (So), Doyle (Fr), Irvin (So), Bielfeldt (RS Jr), could be successful. After all, a frontcourt mix of Novak, Morgan, and Smotrycz won a B1G championship. Michigan was pretty good last year even when McGary was on the bench. Still, would I like to add Zimmerman in 2015? Yes. Would JB have signed Looney? I’m guessing so. But UM has won four out of the last six against MSU and two out of the last five with OSU, so the team isn’t exactly getting demolished against these guys.
Finally, I just want to make sure you understand how I and probably other posters perceive your comments. They almost uniformly criticize the team, the coaches, and the players. And they disapprove of the coaches and wish most of the current players were different and the majority of recruits weren’t coming.
MattD, I think you might be surprised about where DJ Wilson fits in with how some of the guys I mentioned were touted: (Rivals Rankings) - DJ Wilson, 135 (could rise, even you have said Wilson is underrated), CJ Fair - 94, Keita - unranked 3 star, Triche - 142, Southerland - unranked 3 star, MCW - 29 (what Chatman is ranked, FWIW), Russ Smith - unranked 3 star, Dieng - 44, Siva - 39. So it's not like 'Cuse had a bunch of senior All-Americans. Pretty much every program takes some guys like this. Naadir Tharpe was ranked 92 with an offer list comparable to Wilson. Aaron Craft was ranked 111, Trey McDonald was an unranked 3-star, Della Valle was an unranked 3-star. It's not settling to take guys outside the top 20, it's what just about everyone does. OSU, 'Cuse, and Michigan have been pretty successful taking guys like this. Beilein and co have proven particularly good at picking guys who will do okay. THJr and Trey were not particularly more touted than Wilson is.Anyway, of course you have a better chance for year-in, year-out success with some higher ranked guys. Luckily, we’ve been getting some of those guys too, like Irvin, Walton, Chatman, etc.
Also, KY was ranked 3 preseason last year, so the “where are they ranked now” argument doesn’t hold a ton of water. Generally, they will probably be pretty darn good, but with freshmen there might be more variance.
And yes, I think a 2014 team with a frontcourt mix of Horford (RsSr), Donnal (So), Doyle (Fr), Irvin (So), Bielfeldt (RS Jr), could be successful. After all, a frontcourt mix of Novak, Morgan, and Smotrycz won a B1G championship. Michigan was pretty good last year even when McGary was on the bench. Still, would I like to add Zimmerman in 2015? Yes. Would JB have signed Looney? I’m guessing so. But UM has won four out of the last six against MSU and two out of the last five with OSU, so the team isn’t exactly getting demolished against these guys.
Finally, I just want to make sure you understand how I and probably other posters perceive your comments. They almost uniformly criticize the team, the coaches, and the players. And they disapprove of the coaches and wish most of the current players were different and the majority of recruits weren’t coming.
First off, please don’t ever quote Rivals’ basketball rankings, they are widely considered the least respected basketball recruiting service, whereas ESPN is widely considered the best. See burke being #142 in Rivals’ final rankings (and actually dropped from their previous update) vs. Burke being in the 70s on ESPN. That being said, Wilson simply isn’t on the same level as the referenced recruits from Louisville/Syracuse.
Depends on how you define success. Like I stated in a previous post to Dylan, if you are content with 1st/2nd round exits, then have at it and bask in your glory. I WANT MORE.
If other posters PERCEIVE my comments as criticizing players’ and coaches’, quite frankly I don’t care. I bring dialogue to the board in an objective manner. I’m not here to stroke the egos of any coach and/or player/recruit, I’m here to talk about Michigan basketball, that means discourse in relation to where we’re good and ALSO where we can improve.
Furthermore, please stop with the exaggeration. I uniformly criticize and disapprove the team, coaches, and players? Where the hell did that come from? I criticize certain actions/inactions of the coaches and critique (difference from criticism) limitations of certain recruits, especially when other recruits are seemingly available and interested.
Let’s examine my recent track history here:
Recruiting:
- Huge fan of Kam Chatman, to the extent that I said he has more talent and potential than Booker regardless of rankings
- I’m on record as saying Doyle has decent potential as a 5, and that he has shown a willingness to be physical, at least on the offensive end of the court
- Huge proponent of recruiting Blueitt due to his ability to score in a multitude of wasy
- Huge propoent of the decision to recruit Grantham before he shot up the rankings
- Huge propoent of recruiting James Blackmon, to the extent that I said he has more talent and potential vs. Booker regardless of rankings
- Not a fan of recruiting Wilson due to his limitations (won’t get into specifics in order to avoid what has already been discussed)
Coaching:
- On record as saying that I Love the coaching in terms of developing guards/wings
- On record as saying that I’m not a fan of recruiting “bigs” that are really 6’6 - 6"8 shooting guards that lack physicality and are soft for lack of a better term
- On record as saying that our biggest weakness is rebounding/interior presence/being soft
Current Players:
- On record as saying that GR3 is suspect on D
- On recods as saying that Beilfeldt is essentially useless
- Huge fan of every other player
So with that being said, I’m either pro- coaching/recruiting/current player on 7 out of 12 preferences/opinions/statements (or whatever you want to label them as), but yet I UNIFORMLY criticize the coaches, team, players, and recruits…the math seems to dictate that uniformly is a pretty big exaggeration my friend.
Looks as though my biggest complaint, which should be evident by now, is that we’re soft on the inside.
So, I’ll pose the question to you - do you think we have lots of room for improvement for post defense/reboudning? If you do, then why not address it if you’re the coaching staff? Just doesn’t make sense to me. Improve your weaknesses, and solidify you’re strengths…that’s just common sense.
MattD, I skimmed your post, but I won’t be reading any more of them. You may not want to hear it, but your constant carping on various aspects of the team and coaching staff evinces a highly negative attitude toward the hoops program. (Just as one example - UM got outworked on the recruiting trail, after being at seemingly every AAU and Moss Point game over the last two years? After the cross-country “full house” in-home visits to seemingly every major target?). For me, and I am confident for others, you reflect mostly anger and disappointment about the team. I don’t need more of that, especially considering the state of the program. Good luck to you.