FWIW, the locals don’t give Georgia or Georgia Tech much of a shot for whatever reason.
Man I was excited for a minute. Looked at this, this morning had been in meetings all morning and early afternoon and watched a ton of new comments explode when I clicked on the site. I was half expecting to see a commitment. Oh well…hopefully soon!
I think it goes back to what Brown has said before what type of team does he want to play for…one where he has a featured role or one where he is one of a bunch of guys. The issue becomes this has been an abnormal recruitment of a 5 star guy and no one really know which way he is leaning except those closest to him. That give me hope that the Cal or Michigan commentary could be somewhat legit as it comes from “sources in the family.” But how much of that can you really believe either. It is definitely fun to speculate!
With elite recruiting, we've been burned too many times to be confident. Hopefully we will luck out and snatch one in Brown
I would like to point out that if we land Brown, it is clearly due to Beilein’s skill, not luck 
I love Beilein as our coach don’t get me wrong. I’m one of the supporters who thinks he is one of the best coaches in the game.
That said I think outside of Kentucky when dealing with 5 star recruits it is equal part skill and luck.
I keep checking back here hoping for actual news on the Jaylen Brown front...… still nothing.
What did you expect? The kid and his people aren’t talking so it is all just speculation at this point until he speaks publicly or chooses a school.
Jaylen finishes as Rivals’ #3 prospect https://rivals.yahoo.com/basketballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/rankings/rank-3252
He was #4 on ESPN.
That said I think outside of Kentucky when dealing with 5 star recruits it is equal part skill and luck.
Totally agree. Just want MattD to give fair parts credit for successes as he does blame for misses.
Off topic…and probably a lame question? How do I have someone’s previous comment show up in my comment in the grey box if I’m referencing it?
Off topic...and probably a lame question? How do I have someone's previous comment show up in my comment in the grey box if I'm referencing it?
Not sure if it heavily varies from browser to browser (use chrome/firefox) but if you mouse over the body of the comment you want to quote/reference, there is a button near the bottom left that says ’ "quote ’ and if you hit that, it will quote that comment directly into the “Leave a Comment” section. Be sure to type the body of your own comment after the “blockquote” that shows up in brackets.
That said I think outside of Kentucky when dealing with 5 star recruits it is equal part skill and luck.Totally agree. Just want MattD to give fair parts credit for successes as he does blame for misses.
I most certainly will. He landed Chatman over some big time programs, but other than that JB has relied on luck (in part) and securing commitments from guys that weren’t necessarily sought after by big time programs.
Has he ever missed a super because of “luck (in part)”?
First of all, it would be surprising if Brown played more than one year, so the rest of the guys have plenty of time to play during their Michigan careers. Second, other than Dawkins - who would still no doubt play a lot backing up the three and four positions - who else really played well enough this year that they deserve to be upset about Brown taking away their minutes? Robinson hasn’t played a minute at UM yet, and neither has Wagner, so who knows what those guys can contribute. Chatman wasn’t real good this year. And Wilson is likely a five in our offense. Moreover, not only will Brown likely be one-and-done, but Levert will graduate after this year, opening up a lot of minutes come 2016.
I’m sure Matt Vogrich wasn’t excited that Stauskas started right away over him, and I’m sure had Smotrycz stuck around, he wouldn’t have been thrilled to ultimately lose his starting job to GRIII, but those are the breaks. If we had a guy right now who we knew for sure was capable of scoring 15 a game at the four position, we probably wouldn’t need Brown in the first place.
I would see the minutes breaking down as follows:
PG: Walton (30), Spike (10)
SG: Levert (30), MAAR (10)
SF: Irvin (25), Dawkins (15)
PF: Brown (25), Dawkins (5), Chatman (10)
C: Doyle (25), Wilson (15)
I realize that leaves Robinson and Wagner as odd men out, and Donnal too. Given JB’s love for shooters, if Dawkins, MAAR and Chatman aren’t making shots, I’d assume Robinson starts taking some of their collective minutes. Wagner is a real unknown. Maybe he’s ready to be a strong contributor. Maybe he needs a redshirt year. I’ve nearly given up on Donnal - he’s had two years in the system and right now, just doesn’t look like he’ll be good enough to earn playing time. I hope to be wrong, of course.
I think the point is to have plenty of OPTIONS, so that if certain guys are not playing well, they can be replaced. I’d rather have a roster with too many good players fighting for playing time than a roster where we have to play Andrew Dakich and Sean Lonergan for extended minutes.
Has he ever missed a super because of "luck (in part)"?
Luck referred to the GR3/Mitch/Spike trio. I really don’t think JB has lost any recruits based on luck other than Ziegler, I just think said recruits like the respective teams/coaching staffs of other institutions more.
It’s one thing to lose out to UK/Duke, which is understandable to a certain extent because reality is we simply aren’t on that level. It’s another thing to lose recruits to programs that are on relatively equal ground (OSU, MSU, Indiana), and it’s an entirely different to lose recruits to what I consider inferior programs (Clemson, Illinois, Xavier). The former is fine, the other 2 have to be remedied in my view.
it's an entirely different to lose recruits to what I consider inferior programs (Clemson, Illinois, Xavier). The former is fine, the other 2 have to be remedied in my view.
Agree. I would add California, South Carolina, and Villanova to that list as well.
LA Wolverine - Great points. Robinson and Wagner are definitely both unknowns at the four, and Chatman still has a lot to prove – such different players. Your breakdown of minutes seems reasonable although I would slide Irvin to the four for what it’s worth. MAAR could conceivably pick up additional minutes at PG depending on Albrecht’s (and, I guess, Walton’s) health.
I mentioned elsewhere that some of the same people who think there’s zero chance of Wagner redshirting also think Brown would come off the bench – as if the staff would somehow honor Wagner’s NBA development expectations while downplaying Brown’s, which makes no sense to me. Brown starts, whether for us, Cal, or Coach Cal. Hopefully for us!
BTW hello to all. Longtime commenter on the blog who finally decided to crawl down this rabbit hole.
I would add California, South Carolina, and Villanova to that list as well.
There are very clear extenuating circumstances to losing Dozier and Brunson. Akin to the “luck” that brought us Mitch. That was my point above…there are often such circumstances, you have to take advantage when you can, but also realize you’re going to lose much more than you win when it’s against you. Having MSU in-state is a tough hurdle because the home town advantage (where relevant, e.g. Winston) gets split up.
And who did we “lose” to Xavier and Illinois? Two guys we stopped recruiting? I’d imagine MSU, with their seven FFs in 16 years, does not believe they are on our same level.
jaylen brown update (from a cal perspective):
http://bearinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?62260-cal-s-monster-class/page424
When I look at LAW’s predicted minute spllit I realize Michigan is going to be very good with or without Brown, if Chatman improves and Wilson is as good (and versatile) as I think he will be. Having said that I think Brown has the unique blend of size, strength, speed and height to play 1-5. I think he would be the best player or as good as every other player at their respective positions. Does anybody else have as wild of expectations about Brown that I do? He looks like a smaller version of LeBron to me…
When I look at LAW's predicted minute spllit I realize Michigan is going to be very good with or without Brown, if Chatman improves and Wilson is as good (and versatile) as I think he will be. Having said that I think Brown has the unique blend of size, strength, speed and height to play 1-5. I think he would be the best player or as good as every other player at their respective positions. Does anybody else have as wild of expectations about Brown that I do? He looks like a smaller version of LeBron to me...
Funny…I was thinking of NBA comparisons for Brown earlier today and the only player I could think of was Lebron.