Lol - I managed to cut and paste a text message into this. :). Sorry.
Ha ha. I’m glad you left it. As I started reading that sentence, I was wondering if you were checking if LeVert were here on the forum…
I’ve been lurking around here for awhile and have a few questions (please don’t interpret any as antagonistic)…
MattD: when you say “independent assessment based on film”, are you watching complete game films or just highlights? And if game films, more than one or two? If so, man, that is dedication and you should be hired to do this professionally!
LA Wolverine: While Coach B has made a lot of hay from underrecruited guys, there are equally as many guys that were underrecruited that didn’t pan out (bench players, transfers, etc). So maybe rather than calling scouting his strength, what you really mean is that his offensive system allows guys to outperform what they have done or have been forecasted to do?
I’m not that well versed on the recruiting scene, but you guys do a great job of evaluating talent and projecting the future. I think JB and his staff are are experts at extracting talent from each contributing player to formulate great teams. His expertise and focus is on the collection of talent, not just one or two players, and how they play together.
Combination of both - some guys I have watched full games and seen in person (exclusively guys that play on Nike sponsored teams). My daughter plays for an EYBL team so I’ve been fortunate enough to see some of these guys in person because the girls tournaments usually are scheduled either directly before or piggyback in many of the same facilities. Additionally the eybl games are streamed and I’ve watched many games that way as well. Also some overlap in open gyms, etc
Can’t say that I’ve watched every recruit for a full game but im pretty confident in saying that I’ve probably seen more of the recruits on Nike sponsored teams in relation to the vast majority of people.
Matt - relax, I’m not attacking you. This board has only been around a little while, so I have no idea what you were saying at the time Burke, Robinson, Stauskas and Levert signed. With that said, are you really telling me that when we signed Burke, you said: “National player of the year as a sophomore, and lottery pick?” And when Nik committed, you said: “Big Ten player of the year as a sophomore, and lottery pick?” You may have, I don’t know. Obviously there’s no real way to objectively prove it.
Either way, on the roster now, don’t you think there are a least a few guys who are upper tier talents? Personally, I think Walton is going to make a big jump this year and will be one of the top point guards nationally by 2015, if not this year. I also think Levert is a first round pick. While I do share your concern about Irvin’s ability to expand his game, I do think he’s an outstanding three point shooter and that alone will really help us over the next few years. And among Chatman, Dawkins, and Wilson, I think at least two of those guys are future pros - I think Dawkins may be quite underrated.
So, I’m not sure we lack top tier talent. I suppose your argument is that we need to keep recruiting at the same level. I get that, and it makes sense. If we land one more top wing in 2015 (whether it’s Coleman, Dozier, Ali, Davis, or whomever), and then a class of something like Thornton, Teske, Towns, and Langford/Battle, we’re in really good shape for the near future. Obviously, of course, we have to go out and do that.
Two final thoughts:
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It will be interesting to see how guys like Booker and Blueitt pan out. I personally think Booker is a future pro, and if there’s a guy who lacks athleticism, it’s Blueitt - I’m not sure how his game translates.
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When we look at 2014 recruiting, and the guys we missed out on, here’s something to really consider - when guys like Booker and Blackmon were deciding (last fall), it seemed clear that the Harrisons were one-and-done players, and it seemed equally clear that Nik, Caris, and Irvin would be ahead of any incoming freshmen on the depth chart. If Booker and/or Blackmon had the foresight to know Nik was going to break out like he did this year and become a lottery pick, and thus there would be immediate playing time, while the Harrisons stayed in school, I’ll bet we land one of Booker or Blackmon.
Didn’t take it as an attack, my previous post above was in response to eddieben questioning the both of use.
Didn’t claim there was a board the time of Burke and company, just saying their HS film indicated they were upper tier talents. Nobody can predict POY or lottery pick (although caveats apply because that was probably the weakest draft in the modern era), but you could certainly see that Burke was undervalued by scouts. I distinctly remember talking to an acquaintance of mine at the time that claimed Travis Trice (yes, Travis Trice) would be a better player than Trey in college…I literally laughed and refrained from response.
I certainly agree that we currently have upper tier talent on the current roster. No doubt Walton is upper tier (hell, I may be his biggest advocate to a fault), Chatman is upper tier from an offensive skill standpoint, Levert is certainly upper tier, but beyond that I have questions marks. I wouldn’t classify Irvin as upper tier…although he is borderline. A player that is poor on defense and rebounding, and has only 1 skill on offense…hard to classify that as upper tier until he proves he can do it in a more significant role.
Wilson and Dawkins - I think Dawkins will beat DJ out for PT, especially considering DJ’s injury. I grew to like DJ a bit more when the more recent film came out and it appeared his lateral agility had improved…but I do have serious questions about his game at the high major level. What is he? His ballhandling isn’t strong enough to play on the perimeter, he has no footwork to play in the post, he’s not strong enough to play the post from an offensive or defensive standpoint at this point. So it appears his utility is limited to a catch and shoot player, and honestly, I don’t think he’s all that good of a shooter, above average for his size, but I don’t think he can shoot like Donnal. I can see DJ thriving in transition because he runs the floor quite well and he’s above average in terms of verticiality, but we don’t run, so it negates his strength. Dawkins will be on the floor because his athleticism will allow him to check multiple positions(2/3 and maybe 4), and he’s already a better shooter than DJ, so he has more utility than DJ in my view.
Booker - the definition of a one dimensional, non-athletic player. Bluiett lacks athleticism, but he is infinitely better at creating his own shot off the bounce, and he has great footwork. Booker was so overrated it isn’t funny, I’d be shocked if he lived up to his billing as a 5 star.
The big issue is who do we get to replace the upper tier talent on the current roster. Can you honestly say that MAAR or Duncan Robinson can replace Levert next year? In reality, that’s what you’re looking at because Dawkins certainly isn’t going to take on the role of creator and neither is Zak…so where does that leave us? That’s why I’ve been harping on this…it’s all good to enjoy the good times, but you have to be realistic about the future. We have enough to bridge the gap to 2016 because Walton and Chatman will be the creators…but if we don’t add upper tier talent in 2016, it could get ugly in the future once Walton and Irvin leave…our roster from a talent standpoint would not be very good to be honest.
I think we’ll be fine. These issues will work themselves out.
Actually…our coaches who get paid the big bucks and have proven themselves will work it out.
I guess that’s the principle disagreement, because I don’t think it will be fine if recruiting doesn’t pick up. Our coaches have proven we can make a deep tourney run with a very talented roster, and have also proven they are incapable of doing so without a very talented roster…which is what any rational person would expect. All comes down to this for me, if you want to win bring in good talent and the results should follow if coaching is good.
I agree with MattD.
I’ll add that the last few recruits will not keep us in National contention…I don’t care how good the coaching is.
I agree with MattD. I'll add that the last few recruits will not keep us in National contention.....I don't care how good the coaching is.
Bo Ryan basically took a bunch of 3* guys and 1 5* guy to the Final Four…and 1 pt from the national title game.
I guess that's the principle disagreement, because I don't think it will be fine if recruiting doesn't pick up. Our coaches have proven we can make a deep tourney run with a very talented roster, and have also proven they are incapable of doing so without a very talented roster...........which is what any rational person would expect. All comes down to this for me, if you want to win bring in good talent and the results should follow if coaching is good.
I guess it all depends too on what you call a successful year.
So what’s that line for everyone? Some think it’s NCAA Title or bust. Others think a Sweet 16 is fine.
I’d also say you mentioned “…proven they are incapable of doing so without a very talented roster.” Meh - I think there are more factors and one big one is BALANCE. I think Beilein wants a more balanced roster. We really haven’t had too many years with a balanced roster.
I think Beilein knows that he needs some constants. The whole roster turned over in about two years and that makes it really hard to be sustainable.
There needs to be a better balance and in an ideal world some of these kids that they brought in during this class will be solid upperclassmen when the 2016 class arrives. Having some of those constants can make the transition much easier.
Every player isn’t going to be a one and done, top-25 type.
Whether the standard is title or Sweet 16, UM hasn’t reached either without a very talented roster under JB. Bottom line for me, talent is necessary to win consistently.
Balance…a key word indeed. More athletes/defense, less one dimensional shooters please. Shooters are a good thing…in moderation. In JB’s defense though, it does seem he is targeting more multi-faceted players for 2016.
JB also recruited Desean Butler who was below the radar. He can find his guys.
Morris, Burke and Stauskas were top 100 guys LeVert was a year ahead and was Ohio POY. Had he been in the 2013 HS class, he would have been a top 30 player. Hardaway Jr is the son of an NBA player Joe Alexander was also coached by Huggins Gansey and Pittsnoggle were amazing college system players but not eliteOnly Dawkins fits in 1 of those first 3 categories, not MAAR (who I am high on) or Robinson or Doyle
Beilen and staff have a great eye for scouting but expecting an NBA talent from an unranked guy every class is absurd
I look at the roster in 2015-16 and I don’t see a lot of shooters if LeVert goes early as most expect. You have Irvin/Robinson that I would characterize as a shooter, Donnal as stretch five.
Walton, Chatman, Wilson, MAAR, Dawkins, Doyle? Some of those guys can shoot it, but I wouldn’t say shooting is the top attribute for any of those guys.
Don’t really say how you can say that this offense doesn’t need shooters.
We aren’t going to get Coleman. Let’s say we land DTJR and Leaf in 2016. Just like that the roster is balanced. I’m not going to worry about this until we start landing some 16 kids. If we are still getting no named guys in 16 it could be time to hit the panic button. No need to worry about it now.
Whether the standard is title or Sweet 16, UM hasn't reached either without a very talented roster under JB. Bottom line for me, talent is necessary to win consistently.Balance…a key word indeed. More athletes/defense, less one dimensional shooters please. Shooters are a good thing…in moderation. In JB’s defense though, it does seem he is targeting more multi-faceted players for 2016.
I look at the roster in 2015-16 and I don't see a lot of shooters if LeVert goes early as most expect. You have Irvin/Robinson that I would characterize as a shooter, Donnal as stretch five.Walton, Chatman, Wilson, MAAR, Dawkins, Doyle? Some of those guys can shoot it, but I wouldn’t say shooting is the top attribute for any of those guys.
Don’t really say how you can say that this offense doesn’t need shooters.
Dylan…no offense, but basketball is played on 2 sides of the court. To limit the discussion strictly to offense is foolish in my view. So, I do agree that Walton is a good 2 way player, and MAAR and Dawkins have the potential to be as well, but can we honestly say that Chatman, Wilson, and Doyle will be good defenders based on what we’ve seen?
2 way players after this year:
Walton - end of list as of now
Dawkins - potential but very limited on offensive end
MAAR - potential
Creators:
Walton
Chatman
Just Shooters after this year:
Irvin
Robinson
Donnal
Spike
Wilson - even though he can’t really shoot well, I place him here because as of right now he has no other utility
Going forward, creator is the obvious need, both at the PG and wing spot. Also, we really need a defensive oriented big man that can alter shots.
JB also recruited Desean Butler who was below the radar. He can find his guys.Morris, Burke and Stauskas were top 100 guys LeVert was a year ahead and was Ohio POY. Had he been in the 2013 HS class, he would have been a top 30 player. Hardaway Jr is the son of an NBA player Joe Alexander was also coached by Huggins Gansey and Pittsnoggle were amazing college system players but not eliteOnly Dawkins fits in 1 of those first 3 categories, not MAAR (who I am high on) or Robinson or Doyle
Beilen and staff have a great eye for scouting but expecting an NBA talent from an unranked guy every class is absurd
When people name the same 4 or 5 guys, it does little to convince me.
I can name others from his WVU days. Joe Herber. Darris Nichols. Alex Ruoff. Stu. Novak. These are guys that aren’t going to get you to the S16 on their own but you blend them with top 100 guys and they will. I’m not upset with the duncan schollie. I could have gone without the MAAR one though. I just think people need to hold up on the panic button for now.
JB also recruited Desean Butler who was below the radar. He can find his guys.Morris, Burke and Stauskas were top 100 guys LeVert was a year ahead and was Ohio POY. Had he been in the 2013 HS class, he would have been a top 30 player. Hardaway Jr is the son of an NBA player Joe Alexander was also coached by Huggins Gansey and Pittsnoggle were amazing college system players but not eliteOnly Dawkins fits in 1 of those first 3 categories, not MAAR (who I am high on) or Robinson or Doyle
Beilen and staff have a great eye for scouting but expecting an NBA talent from an unranked guy every class is absurd
When people name the same 4 or 5 guys, it does little to convince me.
I can name others from his WVU days. Joe Herber. Darris Nichols. Alex Ruoff. Stu. Novak. These are guys that aren't going to get you to the S16 on their own but you blend them with top 100 guys and they will. I'm not upset with the duncan schollie. I could have gone without the MAAR one though. I just think people need to hold up on the panic button for now.JB also recruited Desean Butler who was below the radar. He can find his guys.Morris, Burke and Stauskas were top 100 guys LeVert was a year ahead and was Ohio POY. Had he been in the 2013 HS class, he would have been a top 30 player. Hardaway Jr is the son of an NBA player Joe Alexander was also coached by Huggins Gansey and Pittsnoggle were amazing college system players but not eliteOnly Dawkins fits in 1 of those first 3 categories, not MAAR (who I am high on) or Robinson or Doyle
Beilen and staff have a great eye for scouting but expecting an NBA talent from an unranked guy every class is absurd
When people name the same 4 or 5 guys, it does little to convince me.
Once you said you’d rather have Robinson over MAAR I literally stopped reading, and this is coming from someone that was OK with the Robinson scholarship. That is…rather shocking.