Detroit Pistons & NBA Talk (Part 2)

Because taking dead salary is anathema for being competitive (for the play in)

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How dead is it? He hasn’t been healthy much lately but he’s been fine when he’s played right? Okoro is going to be worth more wins the next two years but I’m not sure it’s going to be THAT many?

I’m not that confident that the guy who played a total of 54 games across his age 29 and 30 seasons will start playing more at 31

More than 27 games a year? I think you probably would make that bet.

I just think that it’s easy to see the motivation for this trade, and not Smart and a pick, if you understand the Bulls’ idiotic, self-defeating priorities

Okoro’s per-minute value is probably similar at this point in time, and he’s cheaper. Saving that money is the priority, not getting a future asset

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No one is probably going to agree with this, but I kinda want to bet on the Sixers plus 1100 to win the East.

Sounds like the Pistons’ off-season plans are:

  1. Bring back Beasley
  2. Find a wing player in the FA. Aldma and NAW are the targets since Naz Reid will be re-signing with the Wolves

Schroeder likely isn’t coming back and it’s not surprising bc of the role reduction (despite some of the fans wanting him back because they need a backup PG).

Is it safe to say Chaz replaces THJ?

Maybe I’m nuts but Aldama would/should start for them right

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I don’t think so. THJr is a 12 year NBA vet who’s taken over 5100 three pointers in his career. A 23 year old rookie 2nd round pick is not a replacement for that unless the team is planning to tank. I think they’d want to upgrade that position and would look at a replacement being a guy like Nickeil Alexander-Walker who would provide an upgrade on defense with similar shooting (NAW shot a better percentage than Tim, but on lower volume).

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They should definitely kick the tires on Alexander-Walker (of the two good Minnesota FA’s, NAW always made more sense to me for them than Naz) but even in a situation where they don’t bring anyone in, it seems more likely those minutes get eaten by increases in load to Beasley, Thompson, Holland, Sasser before Lanier.

But that said, I can envision a world where Lanier becomes maybe the third option on that list (don’t think it would take too much to take Sasser’s time and Holland/Thompson are awfully sames-y if Holland does show progress shooting. Not saying it’s likely, but it doesn’t seem nuts. Regardless, the plan can’t be ā€œ20 minutes of Chaz Lanierā€ to head into the season.

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Completely agree. Ivey returning + more minute for Beasley and Holland can offset not bringing Hardaway back. I think they’ll look to bring another guard in for depth, but it’s possible they could survive without one.

I doubt Lanier plays anything more than garbage minutes this season. Detroit was seriously lacking forward depth last season and Bobi Klintman, who was picked in the same spot Lanier was picked, wasn’t close to seeing the floor. Klintman was obviously hurt for a large part of the year and less experienced than Lanier, but my expectations for 2nd round picks is really low.

Obviously like 90% of the guys taken second round don’t have meaningful careers (this is a random % I have made up, but most don’t), and even those that do are rarely positive contributors as rookies, having a hard time formatting but this is from Seth Partnow (former analytics guy for the Sixers):

ā€œIn the LeBron era, 10 players drafted in the 2nd rd played 20 playoff MPG. 3 of those players didn’t play in the NBA for a few years after getting drafted. Only 2 played on teams that advanced past the first round, if you’re wondering about the history of 2nds contributing to contenders year 1.ā€

Basically: 10 second round picks have appeared in rotation roles on a playoff team as rookies in the past 20+ years. Three of those were guys who basically were non-rostered after getting picked and had their rookie years a few years after the draft.

8 of those 10 lost in the first round.

Generally speaking, rookies are bad, even rookies who become all-NBA players. It’s way worse for second rounders. So ā€œis this team counting on minutes from a second rounderā€ is probably a good indicator of woeful organizational depth.

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In Marc Stein’s latest report, he says the Pistons and Atlanta are the two strongest contenders to come to terms with Alexander-Walker.

Not as an immediate replacement on the floor, but a roster spot replacement because he’s younger and cheaper than THJ.

I’d seriously consider just starting NAW if they got him

Oops.

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1939352335714488756

I just cannot fathom being this stupid

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He was in talks for the contract in the neighborhood of 3 years and 42 mil, so that’s being on hold pending the investigation, which complicates the Pistons off-season plan

Also got a chuckle out of the fact that he’s represented by Steve Haney and his agent is a part of Christian Dawkins’ agency.

Gambling stories like this are only going to grow from here though it feels like.

NCAA rule change about letting people gamble on other sports seems like a terrible plan IMO. I assume there are just too many people already breaking the rule that they don’t have another option.

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