South Carolina with a nice come from behind win at Vanderbilt to go 4-0 in the SEC! Will help UM’s KenPom a little.
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How so? Having a couple high seeds? I mean, why not Sean Miller or Matt Painter? Nova had 5 top 25 offenses in the 7 years before they won a NC and had been to a Final Four. UVA under Bennett has had 1 or 2.
That said, I think it’d be smart to have UVa going a long way in the bracket this March.
Iowa State over #8 Texas Tech in Lubbock.
I would have to look back at the particulars of the numbers, but the idea is that the way Virginia is performing in the ACC means that they are are a really good team.
They’ve finished 2, 12,4, 6,4 in KenPom over the last five years which is more indicative of how the program is performing than a single elimination tournament. Just need to breakthrough to a Final Four and it will be a seen a bit differently.
Again, not my complete argument (go listen to Dauster’s pod it is very good) but it does make sense to me.
I think their style of play and lack of offensive firepower has made them more vulnerable and prone to upset in a single elimination setting. However, I think this year’s team with Guy, Jerome and Hunter has more ability to score the ball than their past teams. They should be poised to make a run and maybe break through to the final four this year.
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That makes some sense, but Nova actually hadn’t done nearly that well for that extended a period in the years before their first championship. And like I said, other coaches have done really well in the regular season too, like Sean Miller, and it didn’t necessarily lead to a national championship next.
If you’re looking for a comparison, maybe the best is Bo Ryan before he went to the Final Four. The question then is, did something change – more 3s, better talent, etc – or was it just chance coming around in a single elimination event?
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Bingo.
Although I’m a bit confused with your argument because before it was that Virginia didn’t have as much steady success and now it is that they had less 
I don’t know why the same argument wouldn’t apply to Painter or Miller. Although Painter hasn’t been as consistently great I’d argue.
Either way, I just think the NCAA Tournament is a pretty poor way to judge a coach. Look at Michigan last year… only had to beat one top 20 KenPom team to get to the final.
My original argument was that one team had good offenses and the other didn’t – they weren’t the same kind of team. And if it was just success, any which way, then other coaches and teams fit the bill too.
I generally agree that a single elimination tournament is a tough way to judge a coach. I think it’s fair to wonder, though, if it’s quite as unreasonable after several years or a decade or more.
UVA with a healthy De’Andre Hunter last season probably follows through on that NCAA Tournament breakthrough. His injury in the ACC Tournament title game was a huge loss that probably isn’t taken into consideration enough. Should it have led to a 20-point loss to UMBC? Well, no. But I’d say it robbed them of their best athlete for the most important part of the season.
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One more thing about UVA - this year, at least so far, they’re much better offensively than last year. And generally they’ve done better the better offenses they have.
If you’re talking about judging a coach via a single NCAA tournament performance, I agree that that’s not optimal. If, however, you’re talking about judging a coach, especially a high major coach, by looking at his tournament mark over a prolonged period, then I think it’s very fair. Winning in the tournament is the ultimate goal, and some coaches are better at it than others. Of course, talent is the major factor, as it is in all sports results, but if you look at coaches in terms of how they perform pertinent to their seeding, that’s a reasonable measuring stick, one which may penalize coaches whose teams dominate in the regular season vis-a-vis some others (they can’t outperform their seeding), but allows comparisons among the higher performing regular season coaches as well.
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Agreed on both fronts. I had them exiting early last year, their style of play definitely leaves them vulnerable. Depending on the bracket though I think this could be the year they do it. Too much talent this time.
Hopkins is building what will become a terror in the pac 12. If they land Stewart I’m thinking McDaniel may follow. They’d be a top 5 team next year imo. Green is coming too, pac 12 is in trouble.
Kansas loses to an 8-9 WVU team in Morgantown and Tennessee narrowly escapes Alabama thanks to a weak traveling call.
I was just going to stats Kentucky was starting to look scary but then watched them blow a huge lead and they should have lost, not sure how Harper missed that.
Anyone want to take a stab at what the top 6 ranks will be when the next poll comes out?
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- Tennessee
- Duke
- UVA
- Michigan
- Gonzaga
- Michigan St
- Virginia Tech
- Kentucky
- Nevada
- UNC
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Switch us and state
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This. I guarantee Sparty is ranked higher.
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We’ll see. They could be, but are still a two loss team, so I don’t think it’s a given.