Those schools have certainly been impacted but they also recruit at a higher level than Michigan. They expect those level of attrition in the recruiting process, Michigan has not… at least under John Beilein.
I probably have been too staunch on this topic and am happy to leave it alone now.
The fact that Michigan had so many players in the league shows how it recruited. I get that they weren’t McD AAs but they were pros. That makes the situation unique I suppose, but it is also what resulted in so many wins!
If no visits happen this fall, it will be interesting to see what starts happening with college basketball recruiting. Covid has really sped up recruiting in football but you haven’t seen it in basketball yet because it seems like basketball recruits are holding out hope visits will happen.
I think this is an interesting topic. There are probably some quantitative ways to turn this into a Dylan-like data-driven post. NBA minutes related to recruiting rankings? NBA minutes versus college games? Recruiting rankings versus college games?
Dylan is right that we are biased as Michigan fans and this discussion changes when you expand beyond the B10. (No idea how teams like Villanova or Gonzaga would compare; let alone the 5-star factories.)
My observations on the topic over the last decade would be:
What will be interesting to see with Juwan’s recruiting and development is how all of this plays out. We hope (expect?) that Howard will recruit more top-50 guys than Beilein. But will we get the on-court results and player development from them that Beilein did with his 50-120 recruits?
Was Nik Stauskas or Jordan Poole always going to be a pro and it is a testament to Beilein’s recruiting that we found these hidden gems? Or did they become pros due in part because of how Beilein developed them? We expected both to be 3-4 year players based on their recruiting profile and we didn’t get that. If Juwan recruits a 5-star, our expectations will be that the kid leaves after a year. Much of this is based on expectations as much as results.
Great question and I think helps my point upthread. Those are the types of players Michigan probably expected as 4 year players, 3 years if they absolutely blew up. And they are leaving after 2, or 1 in the case of Iggy who I know was discussed within the past week would have been an absolute beast in year 2/on this years team.
Whereas MSU is taking kids that like Bridges, Harris and the kids that ended up staying ALL 4 (!) years ilke Winston, Payne, Green that could have been justified in leaving early.
I understand it affects all college teams, but the 1 and done factories basically recruit to that model so they expect it. Michigan has lost guys before a reasonable best-case scenario and MSU has many guys stay a year past what could be reasonable.
I actually tried to create some sort of visual that measured what @AC1997 is saying a couple years ago, and I stopped because the overall data told a different story than I expected. My hypothesis was that Michigan players under JB outperformed their national recruiting rank relative to their NBA draft position more than just about any other major program in the last decade. That’s true, to some extent, particularly with all the wayyyy under the radar recruits we all know and love.
But it’s also true that some of his biggest recruits never turned into NBA talents. For example, JB’s top 10 recruits at Michigan in 247’s database are:
GRIII (drafted lower overall relative to his recruiting ranking)
Mitch McGary (drafted relatively equal to his rank)
Kam Chatman
Zak Irvin
Iggy (drafted relatively equal to his rank)
Derrick Walton
Xavier Simpson
Brandon Johns
Evan Smotrycz
Carlton Brundidge
JB’s best attributes were his scouting and his system. I don’t think he was necessarily responsible for any particular individuals’ development, that’s more on them. But he was great at scouting who those guys could be, and then his system accentuated their skills, and possibly made them look better than they were if that makes sense.
Right now Juwan is mainly going after very developed guys, so he may have more Izzo types that stick around a couple extra years, as well as going for one and two and dones. Which would be a great combo if it can be pulled off.
That happens to every coach. Izzo’s list of five star busts would include Kelvin Torbert, Marquis Gray (overrated to be sure), Delvin Roe, Marcus Taylor, and Brandon Dawson. Other high four star MSU guys who failed to make the league would include Appling, Durrell Summers, and Ramar Morgan.
Also, the rankings were terrible. I can see a guy like Caris being under the radar but guys like Burke, Hardaway and Stauskas were college ready very good players from day one.
Yeah I know, I’m not making any argument Izzo developed highly ranked players and JB didn’t. Just that for every Caris, there is a Kam Chatman. And that’s at pretty much every successful school.
It was my first thought. “ how pissed are you if you like the Hoosiers”
Would you classify. Deontae Davis as
a bust?
You almost have to give him an incomplete. I feel like he had some nice moments at MSU but didn’t play a ton - which I think Izzo does on purpose in hopes of getting a second year from some guys. Certainly he’s been a washout in the NBA. He had pretty solid numbers (7.5 points, 5.5 boards, .598 shooting, 1.8 blocks in 18.6 minutes) in his one year at MSU.
It should also be noted that Beilein, when he was hired, was one of precious few college coaches who prioritized shooting at every position on the floor - which is the way the NBA turned. It would still even be the case today (though there are more).
Izzo’s brand of bully-ball (though even hes has come around in shooting the past few years) has notably not been NBA-friendly.
I had a dream last night that Howard was hired by the nba ( I think it was the Bulls? Don’t believe their hiring a new coach though) and Michigan hired coach b back. It was very weird
I love Coach B, but idk if I’d see that as a positive trade-off at this point (obviously all hypothetical anyways). I want to see what Juwan can do with his own recruits. That’s a heck of a dream!
Strange, I had a similar dream a few months ago. Crazy how our subconscious minds work, isn’t it?
As much as I loved having Coach Beilein in charge, I am pretty happy with how things turned out. We were going to face the end of Coach Beilein’s career at some point in the near future anyway. As awkward as the timing of his departure was, I think Michigan landed a fantastic replacement. I believe Coach Howard will create a strong legacy of his own at Michigan. And like @Kevin6CD, I am eager to see what Coach Howard can do with his own recruits.
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It would be bittersweet to say the least to have Beilein back, and roster construction would be a nightmare. We’d have lost three Beilein guys to transfers and Dickinson and Williams would no longer be a fit here.
It would however be temporarily very amusing to see the Beilein/Eastern combination.
I don’t know why Dickinson wouldn’t be a fit. In fact, I’m pretty sure JB recruited him, though not as hard as Kessler. Also, why would Williams not be a fit? He’s got a perimeter game.