I guess my point is that Burke, GR3, McGary, Wagner and Hardaway all came back to school for another year when they could have declared.
Skipping Duncan Robinson but using Bryn Forbes also tilts your argument quite a bit.
Winston, Valentine and Green are definitely big outliers. They were all undervalued as pros but were elite college players. I’d argue that Michigan State is more of an outlier than Michigan as far as randomly having those three as Senior POTY type players.
You could just as easily say that Michigan put 12 players in the league and only one left after one season. That’s probably pretty rare.
All of those players could have declared but none were homerun players that I think you could argue made the wrong decision in coming back (exception of McGary) - Each player increased their draft stock by coming back and their progression to the level that they achieved was not expected.
Good catch on Duncan vs Forbes - just missed it but added it to my post.
I can buy that MSU is more of the outlier in the area of 4 year elite college players than most and that is fair
I dont buy this argument about it being rare to have 13 players in the NBA with only one and done only because of the unique circumstances of Michigan and I addressed this to a degree in my post. Michigan didnt have any elite recruits that were considered 1 and done prospects before the season started except for possibly McGary, Robinson and Iggy. Iggy is the only one that left and that is 1 of 3. But this is more of an artifact that Michigan hasnt been landing ELITE level recruits. It is rare to have one and done prospect that wasnt anticipated. Most freshman dont come out of nowhere to be a sensation (Trey Young is the only one that I can think of recently) - it is forecasted. I dont think that I have ever seen an incoming Michigan freshman projected on the next seasons NBA draft boards. All of Bridges, Davis, Harris and Jackson were in that sphere to my recollection. Michigan having 13 players in the NBA is an artifact of player development and losing them earlier than anticipated. Michigan State having 8 players in the NBA is an artifact of recruiting ELITE players that are only going to stay a couple years regardless and having very good 4-year players turning pro. Michigan has lost out on more quality expected years from players than MSU and would argue than any other program in the country.
Iggy was also an odd one and done. Not odd in the fact that he declared since he always seemed like that was his plan, but odd in that I’d normally expect a one and done player to get drafted higher than 47th overall and actually get real minutes in the NBA
I agree with Dylan’s take that it is a “college basketball problem” in that successful programs have players leave early. But if you look at it as a sliding scale, it seems that Michigan would be on the end of having players leave early/earlier than expected, whereas Michigan State is more on the side of getting more or in some cases all 4+ years out of their stars.
This feels kind of like the officiating conundrum to me. It always feels like a referee is against the team you follow because you see every call they make against your team.
In this case, we are more aware of U-M’s recruited players, have expectations of what they will/won’t do, etc. which makes it seem like the overall impact that early NBA decisions have on college basketball are impacting Michigan more.
Michigan has certainly taken the full brunt of it but it also recruited (or developed, I don’t think it matters) pros… Pros go play for money eventually. They also win you college games while they are around.
I get that. But in that 2019 draft, Iggy was the lowest drafted prospect of all one and dones that got selected. It is very unusual that a one and done prospect gets taken that low and ends up an NBA player for the long haul. I get that there’s different perceptions of success when leaving for the draft, and a G league salary is great, and it’s a lot more common now. Still not exactly the prototype one and done.
A different way I like to look at this discussion is, did the players maximize their draft stock in college? I think in the last decade both MSU and Michigan had players return that could have left a year or two earlier, and vice versa, but Michigan’s guys much more consistently maximized their draft stock after making those decisions.
Left at max value:
Burke (9), Stauskas (8), DJ Wilson (17), Moe (25), Levert (20), Hardaway (24)
Left at good value, but likely not peak value had things broken differently:
Poole (28), McGary (21)
Left below max value:
GRIII (40), Iggy (47), Darius Morris (41)
Definitely, I think we’ve been lucky as fans for the most part. Guys that could have left early but didn’t (Burke, Hardaway, Levert, McGary) usually improved their draft stock so it benefited both the player and the college. GRIII’s stock dipped a bit IMO because of Levert & Stauskas’ breakouts that season. Poole and McGary could have been lottery picks in a dream world, but I wouldn’t argue either of them should have done anything different (other than maybe not failing a drug test).
I know it’s happening, but I guess my response is that I would argue none of those guys set themselves up for the likeliest path to a sustained NBA career.
6 of the 8 you mentioned, Iggy included played less than 100 total minutes on an NBA court last year. The two that played more than 100 minutes appeared in less than half their team’s games.
I understand that sometimes playing in the NBA isn’t the motivation of a one and done, and that’s where my opinions lose merit. If it’s about getting paid any amount to play basketball anywhere, as quickly as possible, then all these guys have achieved enormous success.
I’m not really talking about success in the NBA, what’s best or any of that. Just pointing out how prevalent one-and-done paths are for kids across college basketball. Not just slam dunk lottery picks.
MSU getting two years from Bridges (a probable high lotto pick after one year), two years from Harris (at least a first rounder after one year), FOUR years from Payne (a 5 star), and four years each from Draymond and Valentine is just nuts.
Not to mention they got four years from Brandon Dawson, who was never good enough to leave early but was a five star recruit.
Everyone does get hurt from guys leaving early but MSU has been disproportionally helped by guys returning. The only surprise decision that helped us - as far as a first round talent coming back - was GRIII and I suppose McGary.
On that list, only Robinson and McGary were likely first rounders.
Hardaway had a very inconsistent sophomore year and his three point shooting was bad. Burke was a likely second rounder. Mo was being projected in the 60-70 range at best.
In theory, anyone could declare at any time but usually it happens when you have a solid shot at the first round. (Or at least, that was true when the guys mentioned above faced decisions).
Forgot about Charles Matthews too. He probably stays in the draft if he doesn’t get hurt.
My point wasn’t really about any one decision. Just that teams that have a lot of pros, lose a lot of guys early. They also win a lot of games. These things go hand in hand.
Michigan has by and large lost guys when they were best suited to go to the NBA. Many of those guys thought about going to the NBA the previous year. Burke, Matthews, Robinson, McGary all had very real shots and gave it serious consideration. All came back and were parts of very successful teams. I don’t see those situations as that much different than getting an extra year out of Bridges or Harris.
The only point I’m trying to make is that Michigan has been impacted by early NBA decisions because it had a lot of pros. Same reason it won so many games. I don’t see why that is controversial.
Compared to Kentucky? Duke? Louisville? Villanova? UNC? Kansas? Those schools haven’t been as impacted by NBA attrition?
They are just the schools that have been impacted and won. There are plenty of schools that have recruited at a high level, lost guys early and probably not been as successful over the last decade.