I don’t think that’s necessarily true. A real CBA and enforcement would almost certainly outlaw bags. And it’s a best outcome bc transparency makes it way easier to see your $$ is getting spent on players and not on handlers or whatever.
Strongly agree that the bag will survive revenue share. Two scenarios:
Within team revenue share: Coaches will want to distribute $X per game player but some guys are worth more than others and will want what they are worth. Who fills that gap? Bag.
Across team revenue share: ADs value Olympic sports for various reasons in ways that TV execs do not. AD overpays women’s soccer players or men’s lacrosse. By implication, the PG is underpaid. Who fills the gap? Again bag.
i do think the formation of those leagues is a lot different than this one, not to mention the scale and the appetite for central control, and for that reason I’m less sure of there being a really strong enforcement mechanism
I think as important as revenue sharing and NIL is figuring out how to structure and enforce multi year agreements. Players need a reason to stay and coaches need a reason to invest in them. And schools need a reason to try and get them a degree. Constant transfers isn’t helping anyone IMO.
I think the one free transfer rule helped this…until it got sued out of existence.
I think it is highly likely that NIL survives as “the bag” for college sports. The local auto dealer in Lawrence Kansas is probably quite willing to spend money on basketball players for Kansas. And since it is not illegal or against the rules, what’s going to stop it?
The only way “the bag” becomes irrelevant is if the money the players receive as “salary” or “revenue sharing” or whatever is so gargantuan that it dwarfs the NIL money. But when NIL is already reaching 7 figures at times, those salary numbers are going to have to be pretty high.
Will be interesting to see what revenue sharing with players looks like. Is every scholarship player in the Big Ten going to get an identical paycheck? Will there be some sort of salary cap that coaches can spend how they see fit? How long will the contracts be for?
I guess a point of clarification then: I’m using “bag” here to mean, specifically, illicit $$ on the side that is in some way not covered by a hypothetical CBA. “Bag” in the original sense of “here is some cash in an actual duffel bag, you didn’t get it from me, what cash, I don’t know what you’re talking about.”
I am sure this persists in the current CBB environment and I would wager it matters a lot more to who plays where than in any major US pro league by a lot.