If you are Michigan or Texas, you don’t gain anything by having the risk of being “relegated.” You make the most money by closing the door to everyone else and making the NFL JV with the 40 teams in the SEC and the Big Ten.
There’s not some greater entity that could reap the profits of a more competitive “lower half.”
Yeah, it won’t happen. But Wisconsin fans are still going to show up in droves to a game on Saturday and watch on TV even if they are currently in Tier-2 rather than Tier-1 of the B10. All of the TV financials being thrown around in the SEC and B10 aren’t because Northwestern or Rutgers or Vandy are in those conferences - it is for the big schools.
Additionally, one of the competitive problems in CFB right now is that so many teams have essentially 0 chance to have a truly meaningful season. For now you could say the B10 West can have a good season just by making Indy…but they can’t make the CFP. Now imagine a game late in the year between Indiana and Purdue to determine who’s moving up a tier or on the other end, a game between MSU and MN to see who’s moving down a tier. That’s not exciting? That’s not going to get huge ratings? Those big networks would fund both Tier 1 and Tier 2 of the conference.
But again…it will NEVER happen. It is just not an American way of thinking, the powers that be will be too afraid of the money risk, and no one involved has the balls or creativity to even propose something.
The teams in the upper level could make more money in their half then if they were all together. of course you’re right they won’t risk it.
I’m not saying it’s happening, but due to the historical nature of college sports, the built in fanbases already there that root for teams that have 0 chance of ever winning a championship, it has the most natural path to pro/rel of anything in America
I don’t know how I feel about “super league” stuff in Euro soccer or college sports. On the one hand, I like seeing good games against good teams. Can’t say I’m excited to go watch Michigan play UNLV or East Carolina at the big house.
But it all settles into a new status quo. If you are only playing other powerhouse teams…someone has to lose those. So are fans of those teams comfortable if Michigan is now going 6-6 against super league teams? How does USC feels when they go 3-9 against the likes of a super league schedule?
It might make sense in a structure with clear financial, draft, recruiting, roster rules - but Euro soccer and college sports are the wild west when it comes to that.
But would playing to not get kicked out of the relevant league make that better?
I think people are overrating the entertainment value of relegation and underrating the decimating financial impact that getting relegated has on a club.
Expanded playoff is the way to engage more fanbases, which we are already seeing. Side note: The Pac 12 having a playoff bid guaranteed in the new system is hilarious.
would have to start having an NFL mentality as far as not letting one loss or a number of losses mean as much
also would have to accept that the big rivalry games would lose importance due to #1 above. Not sure that’s totally clicked with some people yet. but it’s already coming even before the super league. when the B1G is at 20 teams, the M-OSU game will matter less. There are maybe a couple M-OSU games left that will really matter to the level it has historically.
They basically would have been relegated in 2020, right? Instead of having to fight for promotion they were able to go to the playoff the next year because of their institutional advantage.
On the one hand, the NFL is widely successful and ESPN feels comfortable throwing NFL fluff content at viewers year round so hard to argue that model works. It is the one pro sport able to generate consistent passion for a regular season…even if almost half of the teams make the playoffs and to do so is possible even if you lose 30-40% of your games.
But that’s not how college football has operated for over a century. We saw expectations actually evolve higher when the playoffs diminished the value of a conference title. It will take a massive reset of expectations from fans and supporters to be comfortable with 4-losses being a good year. Theoretically competitive balance will make that tolerable as it does in the NFL, but it will be a major adjustment and it isn’t clear to me if college sports are set up for balance considering the lack of regulations and structure.
Moving back to basketball, let’s look at a future 20 team B10 and SEC. Now the competition is a lot better than the other conferences. So if you have a mediocre record in a super conference you will want to make the dance over an empty calorie team from a lesser one. The use of metrics helps, but will still be interested to see.
I think you’d see a lot of fans stop showing up if a CFB team got relegated. Attendance is already starting to become an issue around the country as it is.
It wouldn’t work for college sports. Once your team got relegated, its roster would be picked clean in the portal, and HS recruiting would probably fall off a cliff, too. College careers are too short to deal with that nonsense.
(There’s also the matter that these are universities, not the property of billionaire owners. The main way to you climb the ladder in European sports is to get a rich owner who agrees to spend like crazy. That’s more problematic at this level.)
I mostly agree with your points…though it is pretty hard to tell that these are universities and not just a shell company for billionaires to funnel their money through NIL and getting their name on a stadium