Agreed. Michigan can hang with Purdue, but that doesn’t mean Michigan will have a record like Purdue’s. Purdue is just uniquely ill-suited to guard U-M.
Outside of the Purdue games, Michigan is scoring 1.05 ppp against the Big Ten. That’s pretty middle of the road. Maybe some of that is down to fatigue/lack of practice time. But if that’s who this team is, then we’re probably looking at 3 or 4 losses down the stretch, given that there’s only one (Iowa), maybe two (Minnesota) apparent layups.
I don’t think this is correct. In our first game against them, we scored 1.13 ppp, and this was our second lowest in an 7-game stretch, four of which were vs Big Ten games. We scored more ppp @Iowa and @MSU than at home against PU.
Consider MSU – only three teams have scored more than 1.01 ppp: Duke (1.18), OSU (1.20), and UM (1.17). We played a very good offensive game there.
Another stat – in our last 10 Big Ten games, Nebraska was the only game we were under 1.10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to barttorvik.
Or consider last year: our average ppp was 1.16 – in two games against PU, we went for 1.26 and 1.02, so overall slightly below our average. Our game against PU in the BTT was our worst ppp in our last 16 games.
This recent PU game might’ve been an anomalous extreme performance positive (we’ll have to see if MAAR can hit those kinds of shots going forward), while Nebraska was an anomalous negative performance. But I don’t think the stats bear out that PU is uniquely ill-suited to guard us.
Edit: I think the original supposition confuses (a) UM being able to score against PU better than most teams with (b) UM scoring more points against PU than most teams.
Purdue is a top 10 defensive eff team, according to Kenpom. Moe is definitely a mismatch for Haas to guard, but I dont think they’re really ‘ill-suited’ to guard anyone. We ran pretty offense and made some crazy shots.
Mo’s last 4 games against PU in reverse order: 15, 11, 5, 24. In only one game did he shoot over 50%. Sure, a 5 who can shoot and take people off the dribble (like Mo or DJ at times) is a tough guard – but that’s nothing specific to PU. Some teams might have a more mobile 5, but Haas and Haarms are really pretty good defenders. And remember, we did poorly against Nebraska this year but last year in two games we scored 1.30 and 1.44 ppp, two of our best three games in the Big Ten season.
Even 11-7 would be a very good finish for us. Figure 3-1 in home games and 1-3 in road games over the last 8, and 10-8 overall. We’re just not playing any better than that.
The fact remains that we have only one quality win in the Big Ten, and that even against weaker teams, pretty much every game has been a struggle. They have not been impressive so far.
Not playing any better than that? Purdue has throttled everyone and Michigan had a heck of a chance to win both games. Your takes are always so weak.
In the last 10 conference games we went 6-4 against a schedule that is harder than our next 8. What is your reasoning behind believing we will do worse against the next 8 than we did against our last 10? I don’t follow your reasoning.
Who have we had impressive wins against so far? There’s only been one. “Heck of a chance” doesn’t help in the standings. We’re fifth in the Big Ten right now, and that’s probably where we will finish. Which of the teams ahead of us do you see us overtaking?
Purdue “throttled” Rutgers, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Color me unimpressed.
What’s your reasoning to justify a 12-6 or 13-5 finish? Even against the weakest teams on our Big Ten schedule, we’ve struggled.
The likelihood of us finishing in 5th is a separate assertion/ seperate prediction from the prediction that we will go 4-4. No?
Impressive wins so far? @MSU?
Do you have a justification for us finishing 13-5? Do you dispute the assertion that we’ve struggled even against the weaker teams on our Big Ten schedule?
As I said, there’s been one. What was your point?
I haven’t made a prediction about our final wins and losses since pre season. You are using our play in the last 10 to predict our next 8. Which is fine but I just don’t understand why you think we will do worse against an easier schedule. You might have a reason. I don’t know. That is why I ask: Do you have reasons?
I see us beating Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa at home and losing to OSU at home. Is that ridiculously pessimistic?
I see us beating Wisconsin on the road, and losing at NW, Maryland and Penn State. Maybe we’ll get lucky and win 2 road games, which would give us our best case scenario at 11-7.
So what do you predict that is significantly different, and how do you justify it, other than blind optimism?
I see them 6-2, win out at home and split on the road. JB’s teams typically get better at seasons end. The freshman have more upside than down and every game is a learning opportunity for CM and Z. As a fan of any team I prefer to be an optimist…if not, what’s the point.
Isn’t “the best case scenario” that we win all of our remaining games? Where did this cap of 11 conference wins come from?
Going 2-2 on the road against Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland and Penn State is not the best case scenario. The Texas win on the road was significantly tougher than any of those.
It’s worth remembering that not only have we played most of our tough games already, we played a lot of games in a very compact timeframe. From here on out we get a more normal amount of rest/prep time.
Also, people talk about Northwestern as some tough road environment when it’s not going to be played in Welsh-Ryan, but in the old Rosemont Horizon (whatever it’s called now) which will be 80% empty. The Kohl Center also appears to have lost a lot of its magic this year, with Wisconsin being terrible.
The most challenging games I see are vs. OSU, at PSU and at Maryland. I doubt we lose all three, and don’t see us dropping any of the others (never say never, but I don’t expect that).