This UI/IU game is brutal. A 7 minute FG drought for both teams. Ugly offense, terrible fouls. Ugh.
Do we want IU to win, to make our win over them look a little better? Or is it better for them to lose so weâre more secure in the standings?
Illinois -2 wins by 2.
This is why you get rid of the committee and let Vegas people select the tourney teams 
But we know thatâs simply not true. The best way to measure the actual ability level of the teams you play is their efficiency margins, not wins. When youâre looking at your resume you should like at that teamâs wins and how good the teams they beat are. Itâs a common fact that RPI is horrible for determining how good a team is. You can use it at the top level to compare resume but itâs not good for comparing the actual goodness of teams, which is what resumes should be based on.
Okay? Again, you can reward a team for their wins. Itâs dumb to punish a team because someone they beat twice was good but had an extremely unlucky year in close games so they had a bad RPI. This is the most important factor of this debate.
Strength of schedule should be decided by the difficulty of your schedule, itâs the literal definition of the word. A tougher schedule means facing tougher teams, not teams with more wins.
You seem to think that anyone here is saying to seed based on kenpom alone. Thatâs what that article addresses This is false. Obviously your teamâs actual results should matter when seeding. I think if theyâre going to use a quadrant system to determine the worth of a teamâs win they should determine that worth using a better system.
I guess it all comes down to whether you think luck in close games determines how good a team is or whether efficiency margins do. Iâd rather compare the wins with the quadrants using efficiency (Very much the best of both worlds IMO), but if you think luck in close games is more important I wonât try and change your mind.
Yeah, itâs probably true that nobodyâs mind is going to change. And this may be one of those arguments for which thereâs no right answer, as in some ways itâs a difference of opinion on what weâre trying to measure.
For the record, Iâve said it would be useful to see the breakdown using kenpom numbers. The question is whether itâs âdumbâ or âextremely flawedâ to use (or even put first) a breakdown that uses W/Ls.
I guess I would phrase it as follows: it all comes down to whether you think wins and losses matter more than efficiency margins. And Iâd say that we only care about the latter because it predicts the former.
If only the committee considered the matter as thoroughlyâŚ
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This is insane
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Itâs incredible how bad the Iowa AD is at negotiating
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A.D. Malpractice
McCafferyâs previous contract â signed June 23, 2016, and in place before the November extension â allowed for a $4.6 million payout if he were fired after this season. Should the coach opt for another job before the 2023-24 season, he would owe Iowa athletics $2 million. Thatâs up from $1 million previously.
A $10.2 million payout is heavy for any sport but astronomical for a menâs basketball coach. Iowa would owe football coach Kirk Ferentz $23.6 million if he were fired without cause now. Thatâs high for football coaches, too.
If McCafferyâs squad somehow qualifies for the NCAA Tournament this season, Iowa will pay him $2.6 million in salary and guaranteed compensation for 2018-19. If the Hawkeyes fail to qualify for an NCAA Tournament berth, McCafferyâs guaranteed income is $2.3 million
Have a pick for tonightâs game, Dylan?
These are pretty crazy numbers to look at. One thing to think about is that Iowa has done this with Ferentz in football as well. McCaffery has done a good job at Iowa considering what was done before him. Alford wasnât consisted and Lickliter wasnât very good at all.
Stability is one thing that leads to success and maybe thatâs a different way to look at it. He has a top 50 recruit coming in thatâs from Iowa in Joe Wieskamp and then has his other son coming as well (might be a 2019 recruit). He has a good young core that should be very seasoned and tough next year.
The line movement was crazy⌠All the way down to -9 in some places, Iâd take Purdue -11, but would have been better off getting it at 9 obviously. I would stay away from the OSU/PSU game.
I think Michigan keeps it close for a while but runs out of gas and canât keep up with Purdueâs shooting late.
Yeah, sorry if I was harsh in my wording. Iâll agree itâs time to drop the subject.
I guess Iowa isnât a popular destination. Gotta shell out the bucks to lure talent.
Man, if PSU chokes this awayâŚ
OMG - what a finish!
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Assuming they win the next two home games (not a given), I think we lose one of Penn St and Maryland to end the year.
Question becomes can they sweep Northwestern/Wisconsin road trip and beat OSU at home? I would love to see the momentum theyâd build rolling off 6 in a row.
One thing to consider⌠Nebraska has the tiebreaker over Michigan and the easier schedule. Easy to see both teams finishing around 11-7 (their current KenPom projections) and Michigan getting bumped to Thursday in NYC.
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Iâll be pretty disappointed if we only finish 11-7. Our toughest games are behind us and we have a more normal amount of rest from here on out.
Hereâs a thing: Michigan played 6 of its first 10 Big Ten games against teams w/ winning conference records. That includes road games against OSU, MSU and Purdue. Only 1 of final 8 games is against a team with a winning conference record.
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Iâd be disappointed in that too but itâs hard to be much more optimistic. The inconsistency on offense has me very nervous in terms of expecting the team to beat the teams it should.
Michigan doesnât seem to have a guy they can count on to score game in, game out, or when they absolutely have to have a basket in a game. They have a lot of guys capable of scoring but all of them are very steaky. When several of them are on, like most of tonight, the offense is good. But the reliability isnât there game to game. Plus I still worry about scoring at the end of games when youâre not sure who to go to close things out. Not to mention the poor free throw shooting, particularly at pg.
Add to that the defense despite some nice kenpom numbers, isnât exactly shutting teams down. I think you have to expect they are going to drop at least one other game we all think they should win. Hopefully itâs only one game.
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