Lol it’s not Ant said he was the 6th best center in the Big Ten which prompted the discussion. I wouldn’t go that far.
What’s our expectation for Jett? 10-12 PPG in a 30 minute role? It’s not that crazy to expect a dude who everyone hopes is the full time starter and has a positive scoring skillset to hit these numbers. Kohler is the same to me
I am just genuinely asking. Is this based on people watching his film? Based on MSU coaches telling people privately that he’s incredible? Based on his All-Star circuit? Based on roster need?
Yep believe it was EYBL. Then high school was SoCal Academy on a team with 7 high major commits on it - his numbers there were pretty stupid: 20.9 PPG, 10 RPG, 3 APG, 58% from the field, 41% from deep and 82% from the FT line.
Here are the HM Cs since 2010 that scored over 12 PPG as freshman:
Marvin Bagley
Deandre Ayton
Vernon Carey
Jahlil Okafor
Jared Sullinger
Isaiah Stewart
Evan Mobley
Onyeka Okongwu
Zeke Nnaji*
Terrence Jones
Cody Zeller
Lauri Markkanen
Julius Randle
Hunter Dickinson*
Perry Jones
Nick Ward*
Marquese Chriss
Naz Reid
Wendell Carter Jr
TJD
Jarrett Allen
Kofi Cockburn*
Tristan Thompson
Isaiah Austin
Dawson Garcia*
Mo Bamba
Cameron Lard*
Giorgi Beshanishvili*
Diamond Stone
Ethan Happ*
Luka Garza*
That’s 32 dudes. So not impossible.
Looking further though, there are only 9 that were not 5* recruits: Nnaji, Dickinson, Ward, Happ, Garza, Garcia, Cockburn, Lard, Beshanishvili. Funny enough, and not coincidentally 6 of those were from the B1G. So 6 times it’s happened in the B1G in the last 12 years. Happ redshirted so he’s off the list. Lard, Garcia and Beshanishvili did it playing for absolutely garbage teams.
After that trim down we have: Dickinson, Cockburn, Garza, Ward, Nnaji. Nnaji was a OAD and went 21st in the draft. Cockburn is well, Cockburn. Not comparable. I would even say similar for Dickinson.
That leaves us with two comparable in 12 years: Ward and Garza. They’re also the only two that did it in under 60% MIN% out of the whole original group.
So I stand by that if you see Kohler’s baseline as 12-14 PPG this year you are saying you think he’s going to be Luka Garza, or just too entrenched on the Nick Ward comparison, who I would also say physically was at an entirely different level from Kohler. Or you think MSU will be garbage.
But yeah I buy the offense immediately translating. Like Hunter in a way, post scoring often seems to immediately translate. Definitely a candidate for a player to get overrated because he gets shoved in a locker on the other end and people don’t pay attention to that.
Lol that there’s two good comps here and one is at his exact school with very similar lack of positional competition and the conclusion is “you’re saying he’s gonna be Luka Garza”
Behzanishvilli putting up these numbers on a bad team is closer to what I think could happen with Kohler than him being a NPOY three years from now.
Michigan State is going to be bad - he’s playing next to a very good passing backcourt that either can’t or won’t score for themselves. The #1 offensive option on his team is Malik Hall, who has never averaged more than 8.9 points per game. Kohler can be the best offensive player on a bad team pretty easily in my opinion. That’s what I expect here.
So you don’t see MSU making the tournament? Basically being a sub .500 team like Illinois was that year? If that’s your thoughts I hope you’re right on all of this