Not really, but @MaizeBlue10 has a point.
Out of the feasible scenarios, I like the one where we finish 7th, play Rutgers, and then 2-seed Wisconsin.
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Is that just because of “home court advantage” or would you say the same thing if the game was in Chicago?
Not a chance. Love that matchup. It’s a likely win AND it helps our resume a bit too, pretty great scenario to have.
If it was in Chicago, I wouldn’t care if it’s Indiana, Rutgers or Purdue. I still see it as three desperate teams, not who’s the best matchup.
I tilt it toward rather playing Rutgers or Purdue because it’s in Indianapolis. It’s not always matchup-based and analytics. I think you always go that route and don’t account for the mental aspect enough.
I will buy the home-court advantage as somewhat of a factor. I don’t think it matters who the game is against as far as desperation, anyone Michigan plays on Thursday is going to be fighting to make the NCAA Tournament.
If you want other mental aspects about why it could be good to play IU: Indiana is routinely terrible in the Big Ten Tournament, it can be tough to beat a team three times, Indiana probably has the worst coach of the bunch.
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Difficulty beating a team three times in a row is a myth:
Worst coach of the bunch?: Sure agree there.
Being terrible in the BTT historically: I don’t think this is very relevant.
Now we are looking at analytics and not the mental aspect 
If we are doing that, I’m guessing that the “desperate team” that is actually bad probably loses quite often despite being desperate.
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That’s not a great comeback there.
I said they’re desperate and the mental aspect comes into play because each team NEEDS a win - not because they’ve lost the last two games to an opponent. (Or beaten an opponent in Michigan’s case)
Your original point also seemed geared toward Michigan’s mental aspect. You’re trying to say it could be hard for them to beat a team three times. I’ve made no remarks toward Michigan’s mental side of things.
That tweet doesn’t address the fact that the team that is down 0-2 is probably in that position because more often than not they’re inferior teams to begin with, so of course the final game’s winning percentage is going to be in favor of the 2-0 team. I would need to see how those third games’ results compare to the predictions from Kenpom or torvik for those numbers to have any real meaning.
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This chart is better.
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Much more useful lol
To be fair I think the argument is that it’s hard to beat a good team three times in a row, and not just any team. If we played Northwestern five times I’d expect to go 5-0.
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I find the argument is usually poorly made. I’ve yet to hear an announcer give even a shred of evidence to support it. It is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a row. It’s a lot easier to accomplish after you’ve won the first 2 games. My unsupported position is that the better team usually wins the third meeting, regardless of the previous results.
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Hey you’re exact words were “it can be tough to beat a team three times”. You never said tough to beat a tournament caliber team three times.
If you assumed I’d read between the lines, that’s fine. I still don’t see how ATS helps this argument. I get your point, need to throw out 2-0 Duke against 0-2 Pitt type matchups. ATS doesn’t help that argument though. It doesn’t matter if 14 pt fav Duke beats Pitt by 10. If you want to go look at 0-2/2-0 matchups where the spread is under 4 pts, be my guest. Ultimately, I don’t even care because this is the argument YOU made.
I don’t think there’s much, if any, mental aspect to where a team who lost the first two gets up more for the third. Maybe in a rivalry game I can see it. I’m strictly talking about the desperation of a team that needs to win to get in. Look at Minnesota last year. Michigan against Indiana in Indianapolis. I’m not contradicting myself here either with that. Indiana had the home court advantage, desperation won out. I feel desperation + home court is a tough draw.
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Just posted the other chart because @tarverine asked about it. Seems like the best approach would be based on some kind of expected win probability.
Regardless, Michigan is going to play a desperate team on Thursday whether it is IU, Purdue, Rutgers, etc.
Purdue and IU will both have more fans there than Michigan.
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Sams response to a question as to whether Tillman should stay another year and work on improving his three point shot
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I’d guess it’s hard (50/50) to beat any team against the spread? I know it’s a different sport but the NFL provides a good way to rest this hypothesis since you’re talking two playoff teams in a league full of parity. And two thirds of the time the team who won the first two games won the second. This cliche is just like the momentum myth, people see it happen occasionally and irrationally assume it’s the norm but never recognize all the times the 0 and 2 team gets beat or all the times ‘momentum’ is suddenly lost.
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Pretty sure Tillman can work on his 3 point shot while on an NBA team.
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Big Ten refs actually got a call right in Iowa-PSU – I nearly fainted.
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But got a couple of others wrong. Iowa definitely getting a home whistle.
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