Based on about 20 minutes on inputting different scenarios into mred’s bracket generator, it seems like the range of seeds for U-M in the BTT, with only three games left, is a 4 to an 11 seed, with an 8 or 9 seed hitting on most reasonable outcomes. A double-bye isn’t out, but neither is no bye at all—just a crazy year in the B1G.
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An assumed Nebraska win locks them into a bye doesn’t it?
It also seems like Sunday’s game is to determine the 7 or 8 seed. I have a feeling if Michigan loses Sunday, they’re getting “home” team Indiana in the 8/9 matchup.
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You are correct. The 11 seed would be considered an “unreasonable” outcome. The following is the only 11 seed scenario I could come up with after a few tries.
You are also accurate that the majority of outcomes had U-M facing Indiana, either as an 8 or a 9.
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Thanks for confirming!
This was my fear, not that Indiana is a team you don’t want to play, but rather you have to play them in Indianapolis. Additionally, although they probably have their bid locked up if they’re the 9 seed, they’ll be in need of a win to officially lock it up. That’s not an easy game.
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And it’s even a larger range than I thought. This is a 3 seed scenario. I would file this under “um, not happening” outcome.
I think if they beat Nebraska, finish 10-10, start BTT play on Thursday, and lose, they will still be in, though I think as an 11 seed or, worst-case scenario, a First Four team. They have zero “bad” losses and have proven they can win on the road (occasionally). Certainly not ideal, but I don’t think we’ll need a Kam Chatman v. IU in Indy repeat.
I like the whole “U-M wins the next three regular season games so the BTT is moot” scenario myself.
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Yep agreed on the Indiana opinion. You just KNOW they’ll want the 100% assurance that a W over Michigan brings though!
This is just my opinion, but my thoughts are:
- Finish 1-2, lose BTT opener: 8 or 9 seed.
- Finish 2-1, lose BTT opener: 5 or 6 seed.
- Finish 1-2, win BTT opener: 6 or 7 seed.
- Finish 2-1, win BTT opener: 5 seed.
Any other scenarios are all good and obviously would mean possible protected seed.
I think that’s pretty close. Have a hard time imagining we’d fall to an 11 as long as we beat Nebraska.
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Obviously I subscribe to the “keep the expectations low and be pleasantly surprised if they are exceeded” camp… just like my parents did with me! Wait…
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Same. Even the catastrophic scenario of losing to Nebraska, I would assume worst case it’s low 10 or high 11 seed. No play-in game.
Was really looking forward to the Minnesota/Purdue play-in game until Richie and Co. sh*t the bed…twice.
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Hard for me to envision many situations where Wesson is a productive NBA player than Livers…
Can we keep this thread on Big Ten talk… Bracket discussion can go in today’s bracket column thread.
Ah. My bad! Please disregard. Hahaha
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Would people really think Indiana in the BTT is a bad draw?
Nope. Indiana would be a very good draw. There might be a better second opponent than Maryland if Michigan avoids the 8/9 game, but IU would be a good first game.
Home fans behind them and really needing a win? I consider that a tough draw.
I get Rutgers and/or Purdue would also need a win, but they’d have the advantage of the home crowd.
I just think Indiana is worse than both by a decent margin and U-M matches up well.
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