And because I just got this on Twitter, I don’t really agree with the Stauskas comps other than their 3-pt #s both tailed off down the stretch (Nik had some brutal NCAA games).
Stauskas showed a lot more PNR savvy as a freshman and looked like more of a playmaker in that regard already.
Good stuff.
Back to Aubrey Dawkins… He can obviously shoot. 2nd in the Big Ten in 3pt percentage last year in conference games at 48% and leading the conference this year at 51% and he has the gaudy vertical, but you just wonder when he can put it all together.
I think there’s always going to be a chance he will because man there aren’t that many guys that can make half of their threes and jump 40 inches.
It’s all going to come down to defense for him though, if he could turn into a above-average to good defender he could still be a real weapon. Right now he’s just not close though.
It’s going to be a real gamble giving Dawkins more than spot minutes going forward but I can understand why JB would take the risk given what you just said.
That topic is definitely the direction that I wanted this conversation to go. In theory, there is so much that Aubrey can be capable of. But watching him get screened, put through the mixer, walked by, and utterly lost on every defensive possession is so brutal. I have a hard time thinking of a player to compare his defensive inabilities to. I always thought Stauskas was a worse defender than he should’ve been, but still, no one comes close to the holistic liability that Aubrey is.
Dawkins has played about half the minutes as Duncan and attempted just around half the 3 or shots at 89 to Duncan’s 174. Spot minutes with spot 3’s thru the season for Dawkins. Wonder how it would be if he had the amount of shots of Duncan.
Pure speculation, but I wonder whether he’s a guy who came to the game late, or had the ambivalence about the assumptions he should play hoop that some intelligent young guys like Horford do. Anyone know? There’s some place where instinct and knowledge have to mesh on D. . .
Dawkins is also pretty good at the elbow jumper coming off the screen (the GRIII shot). As for defense, that’s an area that players tend to improve on as they become upperclassmen, but Aubrey is an old sophomore (having done a prep year) and a coach’s son, so maybe it’s concerning that he’s not somewhat better already.
Regarding Robinson, I expect he’ll be better prepared to deal with the physical and mental rigors of a long D1 and B1G season next year. I don’t expect him to ever be or approximate Stauskas, but there are plenty of good B1G players who are not B1G player of the year and a lottery pick.
The biggest thing Dawkins / Robinson bring to the table is their shooting ability (and subsequently spreading defenses). At this point, Dawkins is doing that at a much higher level.
Playing Dawkins sacrifices some defense, but IMO recently the gap in their defense is not enough to play Robinson more minutes - especially if Dawkins can rebound like he did yesterday.
To improve, both players - especially Robinson - should watch tape of Bryn Forbes. Off the ball he’s able to effectively use screens to give himself the extra space to get shots off. Being taller, Dawkins/Robinson may not have had to do this in the past, but Robinson especially is not good at running off screens. On a related note, it would help if our big men could throw an effective off-ball screen. I think it was Doyle last night who wiffed on like three straight one possession.
Both players have upside and can improve, but I think Dawkins is actually underrated. Remember earlier this year when people were suggesting Robinson should shoot more because he was making such a high percentage of shots? That’s where I’m at with Dawkins, at this point. The dude is an ELITE college basketball shooter.
How can someone wiff on a screen unless he literally turns sideways?
It’s the player’s job running off the screen, to set his man up. When I watch Michigan this year, I see lazy jab steps (or sometimes none at all) by our guards when running off a screen. Irvin does this a lot. He almost slides.
@mpbear14 Yeah, turning sideways is part of the problem. The screener needs to put himself in the correct position and then follow through with his screen as opposed to rolling / popping too quickly. There’s definitely a bit of an art to it.
I’m obviously aubreys biggest fAn on here but as I have said for weeks now neither Duncan or Aubrey play d. It’s clear Duncan is in a rut while Aubrey shoots pretty consistently. It makes sense to play Aubrey more and hope we outscore the other team. I think with more time and looks he could easily be one of our top weapons. He also seems to rebound ok and at least hustle for boards. With him our offense can be explosive. Plus with how inconsistent Walton and Irvin’s shots are you need him out there to score because we can’t have multiple five minute droughts a game. Between Walton Irvin and a more aggressive rahkmans and Dawkins plus don all we have a fairly explosive offense
Also besides threes Aubrey is great off cult screens. Hit him on a cult at the elbow and he’s going to hot that elbow shot more often then not. I’ve been a proponent of running the away screens for him more and less for Irvin and others. I really think Aubrey could be a top threat. He never seems to be off. He just isn’t aggressive enough getting his looks/ not running sets for him. I think he showed last year he could be a top scorer. I believe he still could be. Personally he should be scoring 12-15 a game for us easily. I’ve been mad at how he has played/ been used. Again confidence is big here. Like maar he needs to take a much bigger role on offense so this team can reach its potential. Our strength is balance. We should be destroying teAms with four or five guys in double digits every game. To many solid offense players for some of these performances.
As hot as wiscondins been I still like our players more. If we play like a team and avoid these droughts plus hustle and run when we can(I really believe with Walton maar Irvin Dawkins that we should be running a lot more) that we can take these guys. I really believe that. Here’s hope Aubrey plays s lot and gets 10-15 shots. Also more kam. I’m on kams bandwagon. I like what he does and his hustle and energy . At this point I start Aubrey and use kam as my sixth man. Duncan seventh. If Duncan hits. Few then adjust minutes accordingly. But those are my top six right now
Curl screens that is. Phone is tough
Dawkins was also an “afterthought” in regards to recruiting as a HS senior and for most of his prep year. There is a reason he wasn’t recruited to a higher level. What that reason is, I’m not completely sure but he can’t move side to side. The belief that someone is “athletic” just based on their jumping ability is incorrect. I thought the same thing with JP Tokoto (he was perceived as a good defender but he couldn’t cover one on one at all) at UNC the past few years.
Look for Duncan to make another jump next season. Actually playing in games in the Big Ten wears you down especially after completely changing your body the year before. He is still adjusting. Will he ever be a Brandon Ingram or Chandler Parson type player? No, but he can be a better version of what he is right now.
The B1G league average for 3FG% is .352. Robinson’s conference figure is .358. His overall numbers are nice, but a lot of that came against really poor competition.
He’s been in a slump, no doubt, but to say he’s only shot well against poor competition is disingenuous. I cited this stat up above, but Robinson is 41% against tier A opponents and 42% against tier A & B opponents.
Those are both adjusted for SOS and tier A implies top-50 games and a&b implies top-100.
His recent slump has come against good and bad Big Ten teams, a reason that I think he’s hitting some sort of wall.
Any program in the country outside of maybe Kentucky would take a Duncan Robinson on their team. He has a low ceiling but that shot is worthy of a D1 scholarship.
What sucks is that Robinson, along with not being able to create his own shot, does not have the speed/quickness to really utilize screens well or to run himself. I’m not sure if there will be anyone next season that can create shot for him the way LeVert did. Walton isn’t much of a creator. Irvin shows flashes. MAAR’s creating has come along but it’s been more dump offs than kick outs. In short, I don’t know if we’ll ever see the Duncan Robinson we saw early this year regardless of competition.
This is another thing about Robinson’s poor Big Ten numbers I didn’t think as much about. I’m guessing LeVert had a majority of DRob’s assists in non-conference play.
Update: Here are the DRob made shots by assisting player numbers:
Walton 13 vs LeVert 13 is pretty bad for Walton considering LeVert has missed half the season and Walton is a PG .