You know it’s also not set in stone correct? There is no bet he will improve. He is a 3 year college player already
I actually think all 3 of us agree and are “pretty much” saying the same thing. Maybe our only disagreement is I think Duncan has a little higher ceiling than you guys (or maybe I know we aren’t recruiting players that can/will make an immediately impact so I am a wishful thinker)
mpbear- I have always agree with you that we need a low post/back to the basket 5 man. In many of those clips where Stauskas is highlighted there is guy named Mitch McGary. Once again not disagreeing with anything you guys have said, but Duncan doesn’t have a guy like that on this team or coming in the next recruiting class/s.
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Nothing is set in stone I agree. He still has 2 more full seasons to play. He is 6-8 210lbs a nice build for a basketball player. He has the shot he is slumping right now. When he is on he needs to pump fake more to get the defender off him and go to the hoop. I think offensively there is much more to come from him. Defensively he is a liability but anything can change and improve. Where Denzel Valentine was his freshman year to say he would be where he is now people would think you are crazy. This is Duncan’s first year of D1 basketball so it is kind of like his freshman year. There is a lot of promise with him IMO.
I agree with this.
trick in recruiting is finding kids who will improve in a college program. Very hard to do.
Absolutely players get better. Players also hit ceilings. Is it unfair to say a junior has hit their ceiling? Not in my eyes. When said Junior has showed no signs of being more than a spot up shooter, the writing is on the wall. He’s a spot up shooter.
I was too holding out hope for Duncan to be more than a shooter. What finally made me concede it was never going to happen was against msu. He was one on one with McQuaid, no help defense. 10 seconds on the shot clock and he could not shake him. I don’t even think he got the shot off. That’s a wrap.
Like UM-AA said, Duncan needs a legit big man. He would flourish with the skill set he has right now, with one IMO.
He has 2 more seasons of eligibility and it is his first year playing D1. Essentially it is like a redshirt freshman year. For most cases it is fair to say when they are in their 3 year when they have 5 available for them. His situation is way different though then everyone else. That’s why I say it is unfair to call it a wrap. I agree with the legit big man statement. He could be kind of like Jake Layman but has the build to be better down low with his 6-8 210 build.
We’re back to this argument about Duncan Robinson? He has two more years of eligibility, he will get better.
Where does this notion come from that people can’t improve after a couple of years of college? At the very least he can get stronger and hopefully make it through a season without hitting this sort of wall that he’s hit the last few weeks.
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Low post back to the basket five man not happening during Beilein’s tenure. Might as well adopt another team until at least 2021. Duncan has proved a pretty good passer, and has made a number of opportunistic drives to the hoop during the course of the year. He is a freaking sophomore.
Beilein has won at least 20 games four of the last five years. You guys have at least five years of anonymous internet bellyaching ahead. Barring more serious injury this team wins at least 20 again next year. Beilein is fast becoming the Tubby Smith of Michigan hoop–a Hall of Fame coach villified endlessly by the rabble who keeps on succeeding in less-than-completely-opportune circumstances.
Dawkins has been wildly erratic this year and has often totally sucked on D. He’s now a sophomore, and by far the most athletic guy we’ve got. He and MAAR and a more confident Robinson are going to work with our enormous five-man-by-committee and be pretty fun to watch next year. I think Beilein may look back on last night as a turning point in his late career. People who said Robinson was a D3 player only should be laughed out of any room where serious people dialog, and by next year won’t be spouting such lunacy.
Well when the same thing is happening in 2 years that is happening now or vice versa we will revisit this discussion.
you guys feel he is going to make the magic Beliein/Camp Sanderson jump others don’t feel it will happen.
And by what you guys are claiming Doyle will be the man by the time he is a senior. Because “Guys improve”
The argument would probably be that maybe Doyle is serviceable by the time he’s a senior.
Duncan has been a full time starter averaging double-digits as a RS Sophomore. That implies a much bigger ceiling than Doyle who has probably scored double digits in 7 games in two years.
Is Duncan going to be Nik Stauskas? No way. Is he going to get better and not hit a wall halfway through the season? I think so. And there have been games where he’s faced better defense, but I think this is a physical thing for him because he was missing wide open shots last night. Shots that he was burying at the start of Big Ten play (compare the PSU game in Ann Arbor to last night)
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Dylan, what has Duncan shown that gives you confidence he will improve as a player?
Is it his ball handling?
Is it his quickness?
His ability to finish at the rim?
His ability to break his man down and dish?
His ability to keep his man in front of him?
If getting stronger is your definition of getting better, than every single player he goes up against next year will also be better.
Usually a player shows flashes of his future potential by the end of a season where he plays 20+min a game(see stauskus freshman year, see MAAR last year etc).
Duncan is a great shooter. That’s what he is. It’s now the coaching staff’s responsibility to put the pieces around him to exploit that.
No that is what you are hoping. His rhythm has been disruptive by tougher defenses that know his tendencies. When your rhythm is disruptive or you have to work extra hard to get a shot it doesn’t fall as often. It’s what good defense is meant to do
What do you feel in 2 years will be different with Duncan?
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I disagree. Last night Duncan had a lot of really good looks at the beginning of the game and just couldn’t get them to fall.
No doubt that good defense has affected him against a team like OSU or MSU. He’s also had bad shooting nights against teams that haven’t really done a good job of him that he just wouldn’t have had earlier in the season. If you don’t think fatigue and the physicality of the Big Ten has had an effect on him I’m not sure what to say.
One stat that I would point is to is that Duncan has shot better in top 100 games (42% 3pt) and top 50 games (42% 3pt) than in Big Ten games (36%) which implies he’s wearing down a bit.
And if I was drafting for an NBA team maybe I would be worried about age, but the idea that age is some massive limitation at the college level is a bit crazy. Is Duncan that hamstrung because he’s 5 months older than MAAR that one will improve over the next few years and the other won’t?
Or is MAAR also cursed because he’s older. Bottom line is that MAAR and Duncan are going to be really old seniors which should actually give them a bit of a leg up rather than a disadvantage if any thing.
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Maybe I had low expectations of Robinson coming in. He has exceeded my expectations in all areas. I do wish he would be more daring with his shot. He passes on 3 or more decent (but not great) looks per game. Shoot it!
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I agree with you that Duncan is worn out. He doesn’t have the strength to make it through the B1G season and stay consistent at shooting yet. I do expect his strength to improve next year.
My argument is, outside of strength, what else has he flashed that makes you think “he could really develop that part of his game”. MAAR flashed quite a bit last year and we all know what he’s shown this year. MAAR naturally has the foundation to improve his offensive game. He has the natural ability to pull up, he has the natural ability to get to the rack, he has the natural ability to drive and dish and he has the ability to knock down an open 3. Now when looking at Duncan, I can’t say any of those things outside knocking down the open 3.
I like having Duncan on our team. What I don’t like is what we have surrounded him with. His role will be nothing more than being the knock down 3pt shooter. Asking him to do anything more going forward will mean our team isn’t where we thought it would be IMO.
Duncan is a very adept passer. He’s made some of the prettiest feeds this season. For one of the few times this season he got loose back door coming down the baseline. Improvement will come in reading situations like that, as well. He won’t be as good driving as Nik, but he could work on the mid range stop and pop. I see his game expanding.
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If we look at Duncan here are the biggest weaknesses in his game:
- Defense. Keeping guys in front is always going to be an issue, but I think he can improve closing out on jump shooters. He’s current awful in this regard. Moderate improvement will make a huge difference.
- Ball skills. I think he’s still too loose with the ball at times, but has grown more aggressive in trying to make things happen. Still too many weak passes, poor dribbles, but there’s ability there to pass as he improves. He’s not going to be a creator in the PNR necessarily, but he can make the snap passes available when teams are closing out on him in a hurry that can usually result in layups.
Now if Duncan can be a 45% Big Ten three-point shooter at this kind of volume instead of a 36% Big Ten three point shooter and just make modest improvements in those areas, that’s a much better player.
Basically if he can be an incrementally better version of himself over the next two years that’s a pretty damn good rotation player in the Big Ten, just my 2 cents.
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He’s gotten those shots quite a bit, but has actually been very poor when he takes them. Another area for improvement that I would say he’s capable of.
I can agree with that conclusion.