Arizona Thoughts

A bit premature considering we haven’t played Duke yet, but I’ll provide some general thoughts anyway.

First off, caveat applies because I’ve only seen Arizona play 1 half of basketball vs. Drexel.

That being said, Arizona is absolutely loaded. In fact, I think they’re the best team I’ve seen all year in college basketball. The first thing that jumps out at you is their size and athleticism in the frontcourt.

Offense - they have size and athleticism in the frontcourt and they use it. They have 4 bigs capable of putting up 15-20 points on any give night. They feed the post often in their halfcourt offense, with Tarczewski looking the most comfortable with post moves. The guy is absolutely huge, and he establishes post position very well. Ashely is another player capable of getting buckets with his back to the basket. Jefferson is more of a slasher than a true post big. Gordon is the ultra athletic garbage man, not really comfortable in the post, but geez that guy is active. Nick Johnson is their best athlete and scorer from the wing spot. Doesn’t look to have good mechanics on his shot, but his 3p % is good. Their PG is simply a setup man to keep the offense moving, and isn’t really a threat to score.

Defense - Arizona looked pretty good on D, they play man to man and apply ball pressure from the wing and it is very difficult to finish at the rim because of their superior size. Good rebounding team that is active on the glass and has good helpside rotations on the screen and roll. Nick Johnson is their best wing defender, I assume one of Stauskas/GR3 will be limited because the guy has the rare combination of size, lateral movement, strength, and jumping ability.

Overall - this is definitely not a favorable matchup for Michigan, this team has size, skill, and athleticism on the frontline. Watching Arizona’s frontcourt makes me jealous, because their bigs are everything our bigs are not (save Mitch) - active, skilled, and tough. I would pay to have a frontcourt like that. Anyway, It is going to be very difficult to stop Arizona to be honest, we simply don’t have the personnel or defensive intensity to match them in a halfcourt game. They actually have multiple players that can mitigate Mitch as well. On offense, we’re going to have to run a lot of screen and roll to put their bigs in spots where they have to close out on 3s, which may open up driving lanes. Honestly, the only way I can see us winning this game is if we’re hitting the 3 ball at a high clip, because there is simply no way we can beat them in a half court game. The only weakness they really have is at the PG spot. We have to win the TO battle and shoot >35% from 3 to be competitive. If we can do that, perhaps it will force Arizona to go to a smaller lineup that will benefit us. If not, I can see Arizona winning this game in blowout fashion.

I’m not sure I’ve seen an elite team this whole year with the rule change. They are big and athletic but none of their guys can execute basic post moves.

They won by 4 against Drexel.

I do think on paper, our best shot is against Duke and not Arizona but nothing makes sense so far this college season.

I'm not sure I've seen an elite team this whole year with the rule change. They are big and athletic but none of their guys can execute basic post moves.

They won by 4 against Drexel.

I do think on paper, our best shot is against Duke and not Arizona but nothing makes sense so far this college season.

Tarczewski and Ashley definitely are comfortable executing back to the basket post moves, no doubt about it. While they only beat Drexel by 4, they dominated the second half, which is the only half of basketball I’ve seen them play. Once again, caveat applies because of my limited sample size, but I’d be lying if I told you I think we have a realistic shot of winning that game.

surprise surprise…

will be an interesting matchup Duke vs. Arizona tomorrow night.

I'm not sure I've seen an elite team this whole year with the rule change. They are big and athletic but none of their guys can execute basic post moves.

They won by 4 against Drexel.

I do think on paper, our best shot is against Duke and not Arizona but nothing makes sense so far this college season.

Tarczewski and Ashley definitely are comfortable executing back to the basket post moves, no doubt about it. While they only beat Drexel by 4, they dominated the second half, which is the only half of basketball I’ve seen them play. Once again, caveat applies because of my limited sample size, but I’d be lying if I told you I think we have a realistic shot of winning that game.

I don’t know man, Kaleb was going against 6’8’’ centers and struggling in the first half. They can execute but I wouldn’t say it’s second nature to them.

After UA/Duke I still think UA is the best team in the country.

Offense - as Guestavo pointed out UA’s bigs didn’t look as polished vs Duke, Duke utilized a double team throughout the game whenever UA dumped the ball in the post. UA didn’t seem to have the shooters to loosen up the double teams. I think Michigan would be well served to do the same, because we don’t have the size/strength to match UA in the post. UA was loose with the ball and was sloppy at times. Their PG does a good job running the team for the most part, but isn’t a threat to score. At times, UA’s best offense can be a missed shot, because they get offensive rebounds at a high rate.

Defense - this team is a nightmare in terms of trying to finish at the rim, they simply have too much size and athleticism for any team, let alone an undersize team, to consistently finish in the paint. They made life difficult for Parker, and he’s 6’9 with size and athleticism. Duke has been unstoppable on offense up until today, where they shot 43% and were outrebounded by UA. Their bigs are active and they challenge everything around the rim.

Overall - I’m so glad this game is at home, otherwise I really don’t think we would have any realistic chance to win this game. The discrepancy between our biggest weakness and UA’s biggest strength is very wide. In order to have a chance at winning this game we have to shoot >35% from 3, plain and simple. We also have to convert in transition, because we’re simply not going to be able to finish in the paint over their frontcourt. I anticipate a lot of high pick and roll in the halfcourt to utilize our superior speed. On defense, I’d like to use zone because UA doesn’t shoot the ball well from deep, but then we become more vulnerable to giving up offensive rebounds and UA is great on the glass. I would simply double whenever UA dumps the ball in the post and dare UA to shoot it from deep.

I’m not sure being at home will change things much. There’s just too much size there, and I would worry that McGary will pick up 2 fouls early and we’ll just get destroyed inside on offense and defense with him on the bench. Agree that we would have to shoot insanely well on 3s (50-60%) and hope that they shoot badly, in order to have even a prayer. I would expect our transition opportunities to be somewhat limited-Arizona will be crashing the offensive boards hard and probably getting a lot of second chance points in the paint.

Re: Arizona’s size, FSU was also very big and athletic, but Nik proved that, if you take it right at the bigs and get contact, you can draw fouls if you don’t finish. After a few fouls, they will be much less aggressive trying to block shots.

Well, frankly, Arizona’s bigs are much better than FSUs, and they have enough depth that a few fouls are not likely to put them off of their game. As far as Stauskas is concerned, he may not even be available for that game, and he is our only player who has shown any aggressiveness in taking the ball to the basket.

UA’s 4th big,Hollis-Jefferson, who comes off the bench, is good enough to start on 95% of teams, UA is that loaded in the frontcourt. Foul trouble and depth is not a concern for UA at all. Mitch getting into foul trouble is much more problematic for us, because if Mitch comes out, quite frankly, it’s open season on us.

Well, frankly, Arizona's bigs are much better than FSUs, and they have enough depth that a few fouls are not likely to put them off of their game. As far as Stauskas is concerned, he may not even be available for that game, and he is our only player who has shown any aggressiveness in taking the ball to the basket.

Why wouldn’t Nik be available for the Arizona game? It’s two weeks away. BTW, Nik was a prep school teammate of Tarszewski (sp?).