We will see, but I’ll eat a shoe if Poole gets the max.
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Looking at prior players that signed rookie max’s should be a good baseline. From the 2018 draft Young, Doncic, and MPJ signed a full 5 year max.
JJJ isigned for 4/105
Mikal Bridges signed for 4/90
SGA signed for 5/172
If SGA got 5/172 I don’t see how Poole is going to command more than that. Overall I’d peg Poole closer to Bridges and JJJ than I would any of the others
In the prior year we have Tatum, Bam, Mitchell, Fox, all signing 5 year max. Then OG Anuounby 4/72, White 4/70, Isaac 4/69. Lonzo became a FA and got 4/80, John Collins did the same and got a 5 year max.
I think it’s reasonable that Poole will get somewhere between JJJ and SGA. I’m guessing between 28-30 mil a year for Poole which won’t kick in until after 2023 season.
It’s funny because I think MPJ was a similar profile. A very good (but not great) offensive player, poor defender.
I think that 4 for $100 range is my expectation (it’s what I’d offer). I think my goal would be to get Wiggins and Poole for $50 mil combined a year. Not sure it’s reasonable…Wiggins strikes me as a guy who has seen the other situations he could be in, and may just value what he has.
Poole isn’t better than JJJ but he does score which often gets overvalued contract wise so you very well may be right.
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If they can get both Poole and Wiggins for $50 mil combined and that would be a massive win for GSW.
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I think the thing is that while Poole is a good young player, and Kuminga (and maybe Moody) at least have the potential to be…I don’t think they have a title-winning star in the group (maybe Kuminga grows to it, his physical assets at least make it possible). Like, Poole, Wiggins, Moody, Kuminga could be the start of a solid playoff team, I’m not sure if that’s a title core you need to spend heavily to retain today. I’d still be asking, in their shoes, “what wins me a title next year?”.
(I’m not saying Poole is not the answer to that question, but he is, at least in this series, the 4th guard on the roster)
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In 2019 Simmons, Siakam, Murray all got max’d. Though Siakam was 4 years. Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield, Domantas Sabonis got anywhere from 21-26M per.
So IDK. He’s pretty clearly a step down from the guys that got max’d to me. But also kinda has a similar profile to some of the ones that got paid too much (Murray and Porter). So I think if you told me he got 4/100 I wouldn’t be shocked and if you told me he got a max I wouldn’t be too shocked.
If only they had drafted Lamelo…
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Hadn’t Murray just come off being a star in 40 mpg during a WCF run though?
All respect to Jordan, but I think that’s a bit difference than playing 18 mpg in the finals.
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No, that was the year after
Murray was coming off a WCS appearance where his stats look awful similar to JP’s through 2 rounds.
Also I wasn’t saying JP = Murray but that their statistical profiles after 3 seasons are very similar. Trying to guess what he will be paid not what he should be paid
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I’m scrapping my initial post, as I mostly agree.
I’d just note that Murray due to age within their “year” and starting 1 year earlier was/is nearly two years younger than Poole. (I’m pretty sure Poole was busy being about the worst player in the league at Murray’s age when he did that).
The one that really catches my eye is the Porter signing, which seemed like a major stretch at the time, and seems calamitous now. It also makes me wonder if Denver’s operating idea is “well, our owner is cheap, we can’t sign a FA, so we need to retain anyone we draft who has a pulse” - which isn’t really the GS calculus.
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Why is the GSW calculus much different though? They will be way over the cap so their only way to sign FAs will be through exceptions and minimums. They won’t be able to sign a FA of Poole’s caliber/potential, so they may as well just sign him to whatever they need to.
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Yeah I guess - with them I suppose the focus is more on retaining “salary slots”, so you sign him, and if you don’t like him you can try to deal him for another big salary along with a draft pick.
They’ll sign him, but he’s got to keep on dropping the bad habits especially on defense if he wants to play out his contract on that team.
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Poole is like their 7th most important player (after Curry Klay Wigg Dray Looney Payton) in the highest leverage situation they’ve faced. Great regular season and 1st round but I think these last couple rounds have lit a lot of metaphorical money on fire for him. I think he’ll be faced with a tough decision to lock in some amount between 50 and 100 mil or don’t extend this offseason and play for the big bag
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I can see recency bias coming into play with Poole but how will they develop Moody?? Lottery pick, shot the ball in limited time. Giving money to Poole at the expense of Moody seems rather shortsighted.
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If Poole defense can improve to average, he would immediately jump into top 3. His defense is why he doesn’t get as much PT in the Finals but they absolutely need him because he’s a great shotmaker/playmaker for GSW. That’s a conundrum. If they think he can get into Steph’s level on defense where he’s passable, he’s worth the money.
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Moody is a 3 and D wing player and Poole is a lead guard. Two completely different type of players.
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