Given a chance to redraft now, I’d still take Mobley at two. Not sure I’d take Green at three.
As a Pistons fan, I’d have taken Cade first overall every single time.
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Franz after Cade, Mobley, and Scottie
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I think my ROTY ballot would go:
Barnes
Franz/Mobley (take your pick)
Cade
Kuminga
In terms of guy I want on my team for the next 5 years…
Cade/Kuminga
Barnes
Franz
Green
Mobley
I really think the Mobley love is at least in part mis-assigned Jarett Allen/Darius Garland love.
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That goes without saying. But before Pistons got the #1 pick, Mobley v. Green was the debate.
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Yeah, I was admittedly on the Green train and absolutely down on Mobley, and while I think it’s too early to give up on Green’s upside, Mobley is showing he’s definitely worthy of the high valuations.
I’m just not a huge fan of taking Big men in the top 3. I probably wouldn’t have even taken Embiid in the top 3, that’s how biased I am against big men.
What about low-efficiency fours who can’t shoot?
(yes, this is a Mobley reference)
Mobley can shoot threes, though, right? Isn’t his 2FG% pretty high?
24% from 3, with a 65% FT percentage. He certainly is not a shooter now, and the FT makes me wonder if he will be one.
He shoots 77% from 0-3 feet, and under 35% from 4+, so I think his offensive fit as a 4 is super tough. (the rim % is great, the 34% from 3-10 feet is quite poor)
Generally speaking, I think you want your 7 footer to shoot better than 54% on 2’s.
Green’s 80%+ at the line, solid last two months, and 61% TS as an 18 year old g-leaguer still give me a ton of hope for him as an offensive player. Defense will always be a struggle for him.
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Oh I absolutely think Cade and Paolo could co-exist. I think that would be a really great pair.
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He gives you a lot defensively already and I think the offensive upside is still there.
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Yeah, I think he’s a legitimately very good defensive player right now.
The times I’ve seen him, it felt like any offensive struggles were due to not being strong enough. But I think he can put on muscle (have more faith in that, than Chet doing so.)
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Honestly, he’s most effective (at the rim) where I’d think strength is more relevant. It’s any sort of range where his shooting falls apart.
Kessler is a 57% shooter from the line in college. Lopez was at 76% after his same 2 years. I don’t think there’s any real reason to believe Kessler will be a viable 3 pt shooter.
My apologies, I was more discussing his defensive game.
So we’re almost at the end of the season. If you were to re-draft this crop today, how would you do it (in the lottery)?
For posterity, the actual order:
Cunningham
Green
Mobley
Barnes
Suggs
Giddey
Kuminga
Wagner
Mitchell
Williams
Bouknight
Primo
Duarte
Moody
To be clear - this isn’t my ROTY order (I’d give it to Barnes, and my top pick here would probably be my 4th vote for ROTY):
Cunningham
Barnes
Kuminga
Mobley
Wagner
Green
Mitchell
Bones Hyland
Giddey
Alperin Sengun
Duarte
Herb Jones
Suggs
Ayo Dosunmu
I struggled at the end - it’s hard to over-state how bad Suggs has been (turns it over like mad, can’t defend, can’t shoot from anywhere other than the FT stripe (where he doesn’t get), but the ceiling there is obviously better than Duarte/Jones/Dosunmu. Those three have next to no star potential but I have confidence that they can be 5th/6th guys on decent teams going forward, I’m not positive Suggs can be an NBA player.
I find a Josh Primo/Duarte comparison interesting. Obviously, Duarte was way better this year, but he’s 25. Primo is 19. How much do you value the upside (maybe Primo will be really good!) vs certainty (Duarte is almost certainly a rotation player)? Maybe I’m letting my Bulls homerism swing me on Ayo too much, but he’s just good in too many ways to ignore
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I just ranked the lottery picks from last year. Too lazy to think of who I would move up that wasn’t in the lottery.
Cunningham
Mobley
Kuminga
Barnes
Giddey
Green
Wagner
Suggs
Williams
Moody
Primo
Duarte
Mitchell
Bouknight
I’ll say I haven’t watched much, if any, Kings this year. So can’t really say how Mitchell is really doing. Guessing he’s been solid on defense, but the shooting numbers are very discouraging. Primo and Moody still have a ways to go, but I like their potential. Williams looks to be shooting great around the basket. Duarte is solid and will continue to be solid. But I don’t think he really has another level to his game. Will just become more consistent night to night.
But every game - and I’m biased as a Pistons fan - I get more and more confident that he could one of the best players in the league. He’s mature beyond his years and will make everyone around him better. Can play on and off the ball and in a variety of ways, which makes it easy for this draft as almost any player could be a fit with him. Mobley is much better than I thought he’d be. Well on his way to becoming a solid player. Kuminga is still raw but you see the massive potential now. GSW got a steal with him. I really like Giddey even if he’s an unathletic goof.
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Mobley has been the 2nd best rookie, and I don’t think there is any argument he’s worse than that at all.
My ranking of the 2 wings (Barnes and Kuminga) over him is more a positional thing. Mobley is right now a 4 and a limited shooter, and I have some concerns about that basic profile working. He either needs to figure shooting out or become a center (and if he becomes a center, I think his relative positional value drops).
The shooting question obviously plagues both Barnes and Kuminga too, but I just think their ability to mark, arguably, 1-5 on defense, function well on offense (both have been good in the last 3 months), and wings are probably the most sought after position in the league.
Mitchell’s overall shooting isn’t great, but that’s a terrible start (under 28% from 3 in his first 22 games) and adequacy (33-34% ish) since. I think his shooting will be adequate enough to justify playing his excellent defense. That said, I’m already talking myself into Bones (basically already Lou Williams in the flesh) over him.