2022 NBA Draft Discussion

There was a good article on hoopshype talking about the Pistons. I hope people aren’t sleeping in Shaedon Sharpe. I know he hasn’t played a college game but he has so much upside.

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Comparing his assist numbers to Cade is a bit deceptive imo. Cade was playing next to a bunch of nobodies. He got them TONS of open looks and they just bricked everything. Whereas Paolo has some of the best talent in college basketball next to him.

I think Paolo is one of the best passers in the top end of the draft which is really saying something because he’s a forward… but he’s not a passer like Cade

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Yeah, Cade was making the early passes that don’t lead to assists but create penetration opportunities. Banchero doesn’t have that in his game yet. Julius Randle had 6 assists a game last year and that seems like Banchero to me. Cade I think will be in the 8-9 range when he gets some real talent around him, and he’ll have way more hockey assists.

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I think if I felt good about my development structure (and I’m a Raptors fan so I feel great about it) I’d take Mark Williams over Kessler because he moves so much more fluidly.

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I don’t know, but Pelton did have Fred Van Vleet as #1 in his draft year by pure statistical projection and he went undrafted, so for that alone I’ve always read his draft stuff fairly avidly.

I’m not surprised Paolo is a bit down. What NBA teams are built around a physical 4 with skills who’s not an insane Giannis/AD athlete? It’s always been an overrated type that’s struggled to produce championships compared to scoring wings and dominant centers when that’s your alpha. Banchero is way more skilled on the ball than Jabari, but Jabari is a much better off the ball defender and a better shooter, so he gives his four teammates more spacing on O and can make up for mistakes on D. Banchero will need the ball to effective and Jabari won’t.

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Depends on how you want to play - Kessler needs to play drop coverage, I think, but he’s quite good at it. He’s never going to be Gobert, who takes away a massive amount of the court, but he can be Brook Lopez (who is a very good defender, and plays drop).

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Yeah, pure assist numbers don’t really apply, at least in part because Duke plays a pretty odd offensive structure. Banchero and Moore aren’t point guards, but are the two lead facilitators on the team. I think Paolo and Cade absolute can co-exist because they are both unselfish players, but I think you’d STILL be looking for a bit more on-ball juice.

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That’s why I think Weaver will be higher on Jaden Ivey because he can provide that on-ball juice that none of the top 4 prospects will not provide. Ivey is just explosive and has potential to be a great finisher in the NBA with better spacing.

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Yeah, I think Ivey would be my preference (I just have no idea what to think of Chet, so I’m taking a mulligan there). I do worry about the shot, but I think he can be a Rose/Wall/Wade type in the league.

I also think Jaden is a more than sufficient passer (something that guys get better at with experience) to play next to Cade. He’s not an elite passer (likely never will be), but I think given sufficient minutes he’s a guy that could average 5 assists a game in the league.

Griffin strikes me as a third banana, a great shooter and good defender. I’m not that enthused with Duren, less so because I think he’s bad but more because I think you can find guys that do what he does for a fraction of the resources.

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As long as his shot is passable at 35-37%, it’ll be fine. Ivey won’t be an elite shooter but he should project as more than good enough at 3 pt shooting.

Think we need some disclosures here. All the people that thought it was insane to take Mobley over Jalen Green need to identify themselves. :grinning:

I think Green will be a good player, but Mobley is every bit the difference maker he looked like he would be.

I mean, I think it’s pretty early to make that conclusion. My main reservation with Mobley was as an offensive player (which is not only not that good, but doesn’t show much upside). I’ll admit he’s a far better defender than I thought, but I still question how good a team with him at the 4 can be (clearly “pretty good” but I don’t know about top end - he can’t shoot 3’s and his 66% FT doesn’t suggest he will, which means long term he needs to get paired with, like, a Myles Turner).

He’s obviously been better than Green this year, but I don’t know how much long-term insight that has. It’s also fair to note that early season performance tends to distort opinions really drastically. Jerami Grant parlayed 2 good months early on (and 4 mediocre ones thereafter) into a perception he was a star, Anthony Edwards was seen as a bust because of a disastrous start despite being phenomenal in the last two months.

Green was AWFUL to start the year, but has played 2 months of really good basketball now.

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Way too early to draw conclusions, but still a fun plot to compare. Also goes to show just how hard it is to be good in the NBA. Barnes the only one in the top 5 flirting w NBA average.

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Out of curiosity, how does Franz compare (would also be interested in Kuminga given his youth and massive recent upswing)?

The other thing to note on Green is that he’s probably playing in arguably the most disorganized, poorly coached, and ramshackle environment in the NBA this year, and yes I know the Kings are still in the NBA.

What do people draw on college outside shooting translating to doing that in the NBA. I watch the Spurs a fair bit and their 1st round pick of 2020 Devin Vassell. He’s more of a SF than Houstan would be. Vassell was a terrific shooter at Fla St over 40% both years but he’s barely hovering around 35% for his NBA career. He’s shooting 49% on 2’s this year. Still a very good FT shooter but it hasn’t translated to being good behind the arc. He will still be a 25 minute guy consistently imo but if he can’t hit a better % behind the arc this might be the guy he is.

Can only have up to 5 on the plot, so I removed Suggs and Barnes. DARKO and the app that supports it is a great resource. The Athletic ran a piece covering all the various plus minus metrics out there and the consensus was that DARKO was top of class. No reason not to use others (EPM, Raptor) but the app is such a good user experience.
https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/

Funny, sort of speaks to the point that Mobley’s hot start swings perception. At this point, him, Franz, Kuminga, and Cade are at nearly the same point. Given Kuminga’s extreme youth, that’s pretty amazing.

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What about Moses Moody??

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It’s early to be declaring a winner but Mobley looks like a high level player. However, he’s not the guy who would take over the game in crunch time. For the Pistons, Mobley doesn’t make sense in that regard which is part of the reason why Cade is a perfect pick for them.

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