Also something to keep in mind is that it’s looking possible that the Pistons end up with another potential top ten pick. The Blazers seem to really want Jerami Grant and they will most likely have two picks in the 5-12 range.
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It’d be incredible for this trade to happen. To get one of those top 4 guys and also possibly add a Mathurin, Duren or Sharpe would be quite the set up for that roster moving forward.
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Yep take those pieces, what the roster already has, and go after a difference maker when Blake’s money comes off the books and you’re looking like a team on the verge of competing. Trying not to get too carried away with the idea yet but imagine Cade + Smith + Mathurin or Cade + Ivey + Duren.
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Ivey I think is the guy in this draft that says “undeniable scorer”. He doesn’t need screens or passes to get his looks, he can just beat people silly. Cade’s strength, to me, is that he fits well with virtually any player archetype on earth, and Ivey is the guy in this bunch who strikes me as a premium offensive talent.
I like Banchero a ton as a prospect, but as kherodan pointed out, despite their physical profiles and differing positions, there is a bunch of overlap between how Paolo and Cade play.
Smith to me seems like a can’t-miss quality starter, but I’m not sure about his ceiling, I’m not enthused by Griffin, and I’m unsure what Duren delivers that you can’t replace 85% of at a fraction of the asset value.
Chet is the wild card, I have no idea what he will be, and don’t even want to guess.
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Yeah, I wasn’t necessarily arguing against Cade and Ivey, just that the thought crossed my mind on how they’d fit. I just don’t really know Cade enough to have an opinion on that, so your thoughts are interesting. And honestly I don’t think we know yet whether Cade is the level of star who you draft around vs. drafting best guy available.
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Totally - I think one of the blessings of Cade is that he really enables you to take best available (except, maybe, in the case of Paolo, who I think is in many ways a Cade in a different spot on the defensive spectrum). Cade I think is a good player on and off ball, pairing him with a guard like Ivey (who I see, offensively, as a Dwyane Wade/Derrick Rose/John Wall archetype) gives you multiple ways to initiate your offense with two creators.
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You absolutely draft around Cade but this draft class doesn’t have a ball dominant player in his mold so, because Cade is surrounded my abject mediocrity you don’t need to worry about fit when it comes to this draft class.
Cade is one of the most intelligent players coming out of the draft in a long time, he will effect winning in ways not other players will.
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I fear teams are going to figure out ways to pin him in the post with a stronger player. Not just switches available to do that. The NBA hunts mismatches. But I’ll fully dig in on Chet once I know the Pistons have a shot at him. Odds are we’re picking between the rest, as Chet seems to be the consensus #1. Maybe GMs are more attuned to the downside and the draft-mocking community more focused on the upside though. Dunno.
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That’s what it is for me. Cade fits with most. I think he fits fine with Banchero too, but I like Ivey and Smith because they play an identifiable position on both ends of the court and have the ideal body type to do it.
I love the Portland/trade idea too, because none of the top 4 are just perfect. Ivey could need the ball more than we want it out of Cade’s hands.
I think Banchero has more in his bag at this point for sure. But I do think Smith can develop the playmaking parts of his game. Gonna take some time, but Ivey will take some time developing his on ball playmaking. Ivey could be a stud getting passes from Cade and driving off kickouts and such. I think he’s going to average 20+ pretty easily. Smith too. It’ll just depend on development on what kind of scorer and playmaker Smith becomes. I like his length on defense, though he needs some work on that end as most college players do. Banchero will be a 10 year pro and a solid one at minimum. But I don’t see All star or better in his future. The others, I definitely can.
I guess my question is, “Why is there reason to believe that Jabari Smith can develop an all-star quality ‘bag’, when he literally can do nothing but shoot jumpers right now”?
The beauty of getting Cade as the first building block is that basically every type of player is a great fit with him. Any of the top three big bodies would be awesome net to Cade. I’m lower on Ivey (as a prospect and a Piston) than others are because I don’t trust his shot, and the Pistons do need shooting. A floor stretching big would be amazing. I like a lot of players in the mid/late lottery as well. Mathurin, Sharpe, Murray, Griffin would also be great fits on the Pistons, albeit as lesser talents/prospects than the top three.
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Also open to the 5-10 level prospects, since none of the top 4 have me absolutely drooling. It’s hard to get a top 3 pick, but this year may actually be a year to prefer having two top-ten picks if that’s even possible. Duren+shooting wing, be it Mathurin, Griffin or Sharpe. I’d be open to TyTy Washington too.
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Because he is 18 years old and he has shown the ability to handle the ball in certain situations and lead the break and be more than just a spot up shooter. He’s athletic and long and has a great motor from the games I’ve seen. Thought Saddiq Bey would be “just a shooter” in the NBA, as well as Jerami Grant, but they have both expanded their games in the NBA. I don’t see any reason why Smith can’t expand his game as well. I think it will also benefit him to be on a team with quality guards.
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Smith’s number of attempts at the rim were troubling, I remember, when I looked at his stats. And the times I watched him it was just jab step and shoot. Good that he can shoot off the catch and off of isos. And maybe the better spacing will open up his ability to drive. But I think it’s as valid a concern as any that have dogged the other prospects.
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Don’t think the chat’s talked about Pelton’s statistical translations yet:
Paywalled. KP’s methodology is (1) model next year performance in the NBA using stats only (2) adjust for consensus draft pick, which I guess makes the stats-only model more predictive. Top 7:
- Chet
- Jabari
- Keegan
- AJ Griffin
- Walker Kessler
- Duren
- Dyson Daniels
Points of interest:
- Chet is the stat model number 1, so level of competition concerns are probably not such a big deal
- Paolo does terribly in stats only, so he comes in at 11
- Kessler crushes bc his block rate was so insane and he made 2’s at a very high clip
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How well does a retrospective review of KP’s methodology hold up?
My understanding is that the draft is a crapshoot and while models add to what you know beyond consensus boards, I think probably the best way to use models is to identify red flags in consensus lottery guys and give yourself slightly better odds drafting outside the lottery. So Paolo getting dinged is definitely notable and prob worth dropping him down your board, particularly if other models agree. Haven’t seen any other models yet tho.
Re: KP’s model specifically, I’ve never seen a comparison to other models but I would imagine he’s at least better than just the consensus board.
What is the chatter around Kessler? I know he showed a crazy ability to block shots this year but is that enough to overcome the “large moderately athletic center who mostly plays on the block” stigma of the NBA? He never became the outside shooter I thought and his numbers are good but not elite besides the blocks. Just curious what the NBA thinks of him compared to Kofi, Hunter, TJD, Edey, etc.
Kessler is 19th to the DX guys and 18th to Sam Vecenie, so he’s significantly better liked than any of the non-Keegan bigs in the B1G. Blocks and steals tend to translate as you move up levels so I’d imagine that at least sticks and that’s driving a lot of that model valuation. Kessler’s block rate is literally historic–it’s the highest in CBB since 2008 per KenPom.