2021 NBA Draft Discussion

I’d be ecstatic with the Garza pick if they took Jericho Sims instead of Kopravica.

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Yeah I wanted Jericho Sims so badly haha

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I wonder if the fact Balsa played at Montverde with Cade had anything to do with his pick instead of Sims.

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At least Kopravica is seven feet and a decent athlete. Worth a second round flier. I don’t really see how Garza is playable.

Yep… Garza is 22.5 years old. Played 4 years of college ball and he STILL was the worst defensive big in high-major. It’s shocking how bad he was. How is he gonna guard anyone on NBA floor? It’s difficult to understate how bad he was defensively. Mo was 10 times the defender Garza was.

I’m just picturing Garza and Isaiah Stewart playing 1 on 1 and both scoring every single time

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Garza is awful defensively, but does Iowa even bother coaching defense? :rofl:

I’m back on the Pistons bandwagon, so I’ll just believe there is a chance until he inevitably gets cut.

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Obviously Fran isn’t a good defensive coach, results, etc. But there is a real question here: Garza’s defensive liabilities have been known for a long time, and it veers into the irrational to think that, after his junior year, there couldn’t have been thoughts that Garza’s defensive liabilities could jeopardize his opportunity to assemble some kind of NBA career.

And yet.

I suspect there will be a noticeable contrast with Hunter, who went through the draft process with neither foot out the door, specifically looking for NBA feedback. There’s no way Juwan doesn’t work on his NBA weaknesses in a big way this year.

Not to hate on Fran, but it wouldn’t surprise me that if Garza spent a year under Juwan before being drafted, he’d have improved noticeably on defense. The Pistons taking a chance on him probably includes at least a vague hope that, under the tutelage of NBA coaching, they might be able to elevate his defensive skill up to a barely passable level.

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Having a defensive system in place would have been helpful. Garza would, without question, be the worst defender on the floor every time he’s on the court. The problem last year is he had had other really bad defenders around him and no clear system they were running to even try to mitigate the horrendous defense. Maybe… just maybe… NBA coaches can find a way he doesn’t give up 2+ppp when he’s on the floor by having a strategy to help him and giving him specific things to work on to improve.

It’s not likely, but for a late 2nd round pick maybe there is a chance.

Well the existence of this implies that he at least tries to coach defense or at least that some suckers believe he can to the tune of $40 a pop.

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More Schmitz love

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I guess to circle back on this and my original message… even though I was still higher on Giddey than almost every mock that had him in the 10-12 range, obviously OKC thought a lot of him too, so I did not end up being higher on him relative to his actual draft position (6th). I think it is a worthy bet for OKC given their current position as a franchise.

I can’t even be that “low” on Brooklyn taking Cam Thomas at 27 because, historically, there is just a small chance a player at that draft position becomes a high-end rotation player or better. I wouldn’t have taken him in the first round, but it’s close that it is whatever. I don’t even hate where he ended up because he will always be behind one (or more) of KD, Harden, and Kyrie in the shot-taking pecking order, if he can even get on the court, which I obviously have many questions about. Although that may not stop him from trying lol.

I will give my thoughts on Sengun, but then probably caveat it at the end. Hollinger’s mock that I believe had Sengun 4th, the analytic models who had him in the top 3 (and as high as first), and even many others who had him in their top 7-10 were completely dumbfounding to me. I think it just completely ignores so much context to have the basis of your argument essentially be that “his production in a traditionally very strong international league at his age is unprecedented.” SO much context.

Before I get into the meat of this, let me say that I really enjoy watching Sengun play. It was significantly more enjoyable to watch a game of his compared to some above average college wings that went in the 20-40s, not even close. He is also a very talented basketball player, not denying that at all either, and his production is nearly unprecedented!

First, the Turkish league was hit hard by COVID complications, making the league not as high of quality as usual. Nobody ever mentions that relative to his dominance. My on-court problems begin with him being a non-defensive big. That is overly simplifying, but I have already gone on long and will go longer. Basically, how many non-defensive bigs are valuable in the NBA anymore? If you roughly listed the top 125 NBA players, the guys who really matter, how many are non-defensive bigs? And how excellent offensively do they have to be to even sniff that list?

And offensively, I have many questions too. He is, in a word, meticulous as a low-post scorer. He has absolutely brilliant footwork and endless spins, counters, up-fakes, etc. But unless you are hyper efficient as a low post scorer like a Jokic or Embiid, the NBA just doesn’t dump it into the post like that anymore. And Sengun is 6’9 with only a +1 or +2 wingspan – he may not (likely won’t) be as effective in the NBA. I, personally, am not a fan of offense generated in static situations, which is why, even at his best, I am not a Cam Thomas guy either (both score in ball stopping situations, at this point).

Sengun is a really good passer. This is manifests out of the post and I could see him thriving and providing value as a short roll passer. But that would likely require situations where he is a good enough low post scorer that he requires doubles or extra attention, or that he is paired with a player that requires traps from the defense for the short roll passing. I could see him as a DHO operator at points too, but I think that would be a lower-usage type of action because of the section below about his shooting projection.

Sengun displays awesome touch and is a good free throw shooter, so some people are more optimistic on his three point shooting projection… but he attempted less than one per game and I believe made 4 threes in 29 games. We are grasping if you believe super strongly in that. Even in a high-end projection where he becomes like a Marc Gasol-type of shooter (not making that comp, just for the perimeter shooting) and attempts like 2-3/game off pick & pops at average efficiency, does that really help your offense very much? Is that scaring a defense into playing closer to him or generating any hard close-outs? I don’t really think so, even though it would be a nice skill to add. I just don’t really see him as a volume shooter.

I have lots more thoughts, but basically you end up with a guy who, even in optimistic projections, is a negative on defense, well below average guarding pick & roll, and has a ton of offensive skill, but requires a unique situation to make use of all of those skills. Even if the low-post scoring translates at good efficiency, I am not sure useful those skills translate to high-level NBA offense as a team, even though he, himself, would score efficiently. That doesn’t even mention a median or low-end outcome, which are more likely to occur.

All that being said… he went 16th and not in the top 7-10. Just less of a risk at that spot. If a team had taken him in the twenties, I would have had very little issue with it. Because if he just ends up as an innings eater, bench scoring big then that isn’t very useful to winning, that is a generally decent outcome because only ~20 draftees each year turn into rotation players or better. My issue then isn’t so much with his draft slot, but the fact that Houston traded two future firsts to move up to select him – that is terrible process, in my opinion. And I guess an issue with the projections that had him in the top 5, too :slight_smile:

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I had similar thoughts. Livers can be a bench version of Bey. He also might not shoot well enough, or defend. But it’s definitely plausible for him to succeed.

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I think he’s pretty much Enes Kanter, but the optimistic ceiling for Garza is Brook Lopez.

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Brook Lopez is an absolute positive as a defensive player…

I think Garza’s comp is Boban (I toss this out for every big guy I think will score pretty efficiently but be an almost unimaginable disaster on defense). Garza can shoot threes I guess, but he strikes me as more of a Valunciunas shooter - if he gets the ball at the top of the key, and the defense completely ignores him, he will test the wind, think about it a second, test the wind again, and shoot 1.5 times a game.

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Feel like we gotta hope Garza is just a more prolific Maxi Kleber. If he makes 40-45% of threes he can have a role. Frontcourt dudes aren’t typically spacers like him and that works with Killian and Cade in a big way.

But he’s not gonna work defensively at all.

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Kleber is a good defender, I think with Garza you’re hoping he can survive as a backup center defensively in drop coverage and be a really good offensive player, like Kanter but with 3s instead of offensive rebounds.

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Unretired?

https://twitter.com/EliBashiNBA/status/1421152290963136512

yeah, Maxi got the nod to guard Kawhi in the playoffs.

I think Daddy Rich would be cool with it

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