Guys like AD can pass on that gig bc he’s a superstar. Most guys are gonna take whatever looks most profitable. If he’s a sub-30% 3pt shooter, that next contract is gonna be tough to come by at the wing. Beyond that, my impression of Barnes is that he’s a team-first guy who wants to win.
1 Like
Looks to me like unless he gets the right fit in the draft, he’ll quite possibly flourish with his next team, which could be adding him with a specific fit and role in mind. I agree the second contract will be hard to come by if he shoots poorly, but same logic applies to the draft. Sub 30%, FTs at 60%. It’s not like he shot 80% from FT.
1 Like
I’ll be very disappointed if Livers doesn’t get drafted. Someone should want exclusive rights in the second round.
1 Like
No one is going to stop a coach from being put in the game. If they put him at the 5 there’s nothing he or anyone can do.
1 Like
To be clear, I mean that he’ll pretty much HAVE to play the 5 if it means the difference between $$$. In a universe where he can’t make 3’s, you max out his value at the most important defensive position.
Re: fit, I still don’t really see the problem. Especially on bad teams, rosters are very much in flux and full of weird possible combinations. But there’s a ton of minutes to be played in the regular season and while lots of guys play “second unit minutes” there’s no such thing as a first five and a second five these days. Everything is staggered.
Fit is a playoffs problem, which for most teams is a good problem to have.
If everyone’s looking at him as a five, you’re right. But even then, teams aren’t necessarily going with 6-7 as a first option at that position no matter the standing reach, IQ or switchability. I think teams are going to be looking first and foremost for players with a size/skills match.
Then again, I also think that draft day is a magical-thinking day. Teams will convince themselves of all sorts of things.
4 Likes
And, for the record, I love your idea of trying him at the 5. I feel like if Minny still had its pick at #7, he’d be a mock-draft lock to slot in next to KAT. Whether it makes sense in reality is another story but on paper that’s a real easy fit.
1 Like
My very unscientific / anecdotal sense is that he’s creeping up mock draft boards. I’m pretty optimistic at this point.
2 Likes
Scottie Barnes isn’t a 5 lmao. He doesn’t rebound well and isn’t overly athletic. Would get dominated by bigger centers on a regular basis.
I see Scottie as a Kyle Anderson type, except a better defender and worse shot maker at this juncture. If I’m a GM picking in the lottery, I’d pass every day.
1 Like
He’s 6’9 and has a 7’3 wing span. He played on a good rebounding team so I think his rebounding is fine. If he bulks up some he can certainly play 10-15 minutes a game at center. He’s not a full time center but absolutely could get some minutes there.
Barnes absolutely has limitations. If he can’t shoot at all he will likely not be a particularly useful player. But he doesn’t need to be a great shooter, he just needs to be better than Ben Simmons. His feel for the game raises his floor though compared to many other non shooters. I’m not a huge Barnes guy but I certainly can’t name 10 guys I’d pick ahead of him
2 Likes
That probably nails it for me. I can name maybe 7 or 8. I’m not sure Franz will be better, though I think he very likely could be picked before Barnes.
1 Like
I haven’t seen a mock that had Franz before Barnes. Seems like Barnes is locked in as a top 6 guy from what I’ve seen. Franz seems like anywhere from 8-13
And per Vecenie:
Multiple teams I’ve spoken with actually have Barnes as a top-four prospect in this class, ahead of Suggs, Green or Mobley. I don’t necessarily love the roster fit here, but the player simply ticks all the boxes Orlando looks for. I believe the Magic are much more likely, at this point, to select Barnes than Jonathan Kuminga, the other player typically associated with this pick
1 Like
Vecenie has also talked a lot about how he likes Barnes at the 5. This isn’t, like, something I pulled out of thin air.
The mockdrafters do not agree with me, it’s true. And maybe they know something about that 5th or 6th pick.
That said, as much as I’m not convinced that Franz has a high floor, it’s kind of easy to see how Barnes’s floor would be lower despite those wonderful tools he has. And for either player, ceiling is pretty tightly tied to shooting and one of these guys shot 85% from FT and the other 62%. If you’re picking between the two of them at pick 9 or 10, you can easily justify going either way. Barnes might have a team or two at 5 or 6 that like him, but depending on how things go he might be the kind of player who slips if he doesn’t go in that slot, because not every team is going to want to scheme around the holes in his game.
Just for funsies, here’s a provisional top 10 college/Ignite guys ranking:
- Cade
- Green
- Mobley
- Suggs
- Moody
- Franz
- Barnes
- Springer
- Kuminga
- Bouknight
Wouldn’t say I have very strong opinions here. Much stronger opinions on who shouldn’t be in the top 10. I excluded the foreign kids bc I just have 0 context. I think I’m pretty into Giddey from what I hear from Vecenie though. I’m suddenly high on Green bc I just listened to Dunc’d On and I get the theory of him a lot better. FT% + nuclear athleticism is a pretty easy sell.
The strong opinions I do have are on guys who didn’t make the top 10 like Mitchell and Duarte. It is just not difficult to find guys w/ much better production than they managed earlier in their careers. Many of their age peers are already very productive in the NBA.
I’m guessing Springer is the one a lot of folks don’t have? His age, blocks + steals, and FT% make him a really easy call. Good example of scouts not weighting shooting stats properly. Kuminga is lower bc his FT% is as bad as Barnes but I’m not sure who I’d take over him and I’m not such a contrarian that I’m gonna drop him a lot farther. Wish I knew more about the guy, mostly.
2 Likes
I think if my team had #5 in this draft I’d be hoping they aggressively look to trade down more than talking myself into Scottie Barnes or anyone else being closer to a top 4 talent. Everyone past Suggs through the lottery looks equally hit or miss to me.
2 Likes
Ha, the hard thing about trading down is that’s what everybody wants to do. You’d rather have 2 shots at an average dude than 1 shot at a slightly above average dude. Tough to find partners. Easier to move from, like, 21 to 16 to make sure you get your guy or something like that.
That’s BTN politics for you.
I’m unfairly biased against Green because I hate the arguments people make about how impressive his G League stats are, when they’re actually pretty poor.
What in particular about his stats don’t you like?
2 Likes