So, my issue is that people treat his numbers as if he was playing in the B12 or B10 and then blanketly say they’re amazing “because of the higher quality of competition”. But what that ignores is… literally everyone gets buckets in the G League. It may be “tougher comp” but scoring in the G League is much easier as a whole due to the spacing and style of play. Green’s numbers are not super impressive compared to the G League generally. For example a basic comparison:
Jalen Green EFG%: 53.7
G League Average: 54.3
Cade EFG%: 51.5
NCAA Average EFG%: 50
It’s not a perfect comparison (it’d be better to try and adjust for Cade’s quality of competition compared to D1 average), but it illustrates the point generally. NBA scrubs put up BIG numbers in the G League due to the spacing, style of play and lack of defensive emphasis. Anyone who’s ever followed a team’s 26th overall pick knows that they’re always putting up 30 burgers in the G League no matter how much they suck. And Green’s numbers really aren’t that impressive compared to the average G Leaguer. Decent scoring numbers on average effeciency, but does nothing else on the court. This generally reflects in the overall advanced numbers as well (.100 is average WS/48 where Jalen Green was at .44). So the numbers shouldn’t be an argument to 'say we know for sure Green is great because of these", which it very often is used as, particularly in comparison to Cade.
On the other hand, we don’t have a great context for how well 18 year olds SHOULD be doing in the G League if they’re gonna be productive pros, since we’ve never seen it before. But at the very least he did not dominate the G League.
Yeah basically there were a ton of casual people who wrote off Green specifically because he played in the G League, and then a bunch of less casual fans got all pissy about how the G League is way better than college, and then the love went way too far with it. I feel like no one brings this up.
Sure. My point isn’t “Jalen Green is a horrible prospect because of this”, it’s more “this is a trash argument that people constantly use to prop him up as a prospect”. I think you just have to scout based on his traits because his current ability is not guaranteed to be amazing because of his production. But one note… Sekou Doumbouya (who is very bad and has no idea how to play basketball) was noticeably better then Green in the G League.
I think it’s possible that we end up finding that this production was amazing for an 18 year old as we see more GLI teams and can determine what a normal adjustment to the NBA is, but I’m skeptical
Isaiah Livers, 6-7 senior forward, Michigan. “He’s had a rough couple of years with his injuries. He’s pretty limited with the ball in his hands. Defensively he’s just okay. It wouldn’t shock me if he goes undrafted but eventually makes his way. He’s a good shooter, not elite. The problem is, who does he guard? A four man will post him up, and he certainly can’t guard a wing. His lateral quickness is a problem. He’s a good kid, he’ll be coachable. Pretty marginal athlete, but his ability to shoot and make the right reads will help. I’d say he’s mid-second round.”
Franz Wagner, 6-9 sophomore forward, Michigan. “He’s big, he’s versatile. Doesn’t do anything great but gives you a little bit of everything. It’s weird because he’s got good shooting form; it just doesn’t go in. I don’t feel good when it leaves his hands. He’s not confident enough in himself. Excellent passer for his size, good defender. The major question is his shooting and lateral athleticism. Super intriguing. Really good size and skill. Not the toughest kid. I’d say 10 to late teens.”
Chaundee Brown, 6-5 senior guard, Michigan. “He’s an end-of-bench rotation guy, maybe. Glue guy who plays hard. Strong shooting guard, has the skills of an undersized power forward. His midrange shot is OK, but when he gets deep his mechanics start to really fluctuate. You see a couple of flashes, but you don’t have a lot of consistency. He wants to float around the perimeter. He’s a tease. Probably a late second-round guy and you put him on a two-way contract and see if he can develop.”
If a 43% 3pt shooter isn’t elite, what makes someone an elite shooter? And if 43% is just considered a good shooter, how many “good” shooters even exist?
All the other stuff about him is fair, but Livers’ ticket to the NBA is that he IS an elite shooter. If he’s just a good shooter, he probably doesn’t do other things at a high enough level to play in the league. If he can shoot above 40%, that’s elite. There were only about 35 guys in the entire league that shot above 40% last year. Obviously it remains to be seen whether he can shoot that high of a percentage from the longer line, but if so, that’s his ticket to the show.
Yeah not sure what an elite college shooter looks like if not Livers. I guess he doesn’t shoot off the dribble, but he never dribbles anyway so I’m not convinced that makes a huge difference.
NBA draft is next week. How about a fun game where we predict the # where the following players are drafted: Josh Christopher, Isiah Todd, Franz Wagner, Isiah Livers, Aaron Henry, Chaundee Brown. It’s acceptable to list someone as “undrafted.” Lowest total difference is the winner. (For example, if I predict Todd or Chaundee will be selected 56th and he doesn’t get drafted, that’s a difference of 4, cuz the there’s only 60 picks.) Loser buys. In Vegas.
Geezus, I wish I had seen that it was Seth Davis so I could have skipped the assessments. Yes, even if he was purportedly sharing anonymous scouts’ assessments.
I think you hit it exactly right. Livers is trying to get the Duncan Robinson role as his ceiling and no one would argue that Duncan had great lateral quickness or defensive instincts. If I were Livers I would have sat down with Duncan sometime in the past few months and said, “tell me everything you did to get better” and follow that template.
I would say a scout could drop Livers from great shooter to good shooter because he doesn’t shoot off the dribble really or shoot off movement in general. If we’re talking catch and shoot exclusively than he’s great no doubt.
The last two posts are in in a nutshell for me. All of these things are true, and you don’t need to be from Michigan to note the parallel with Duncan Robinson as a 3-and-iffy-D player but in this world of specious connections it does help, and both did time under Beilein so it’s a tad relevant. A franchise should believe in its ability to take player like Livers and develop that guy just like the Heat developed Duncan. I don’t know if that gets him into the second round or if he’s a two-way guy, but it does seem that the general consensus is that he’ll get his shot.
The other thing re: Livers is nobody should be worried about his size post-combine. 6’6’’ no shoes, 8’8.5’’ standing reach, 230 lbs. That’s not a guy who’s going to get beasted in the post in the NBA. Obvi he’s not suddenly going to be super switchable, but a smart defender who can play off ball, fit into a scheme, hit some 3’s, use his size a bit…sounds like he’s got a good chance to stick to me.
