Simmons was also good at the stuff that Barnes is to the extent he was the consensus #1 pick. I don’t recall the relative strength of that draft class, but I generally agree that Barnes is a really brave pick in the top half of the lottery given how obvious the comparison and how Simmons’s postseason went down. And the h2h with Franz.
The shot is a fair concern but basing any draft decisions on one (or two or whatever) game(s) is a big mistake. Especially something like a head-to-head matchup.
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Lest we forget Franz last game
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Read through the draft guide and saw this from Sam in the comments concerning Isaiah Todd, who’s evidently only working out for lottery teams:
“Look it’s very possible a team is hiding something and keeping it very close to the vest. Totally plausible. But I get second round from everyone I ask, from execs to agents. So…IDK what to think about him only working out for lottery teams.”
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Is getting shut down by Franz that big of a dig either? Franz is basically the worst possible matchup for someone like Barnes, and he was one of the best defenders in college basketball by a considerable margin last year. Michigan was also just a better team, which multiplies the problem.
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Weird situation where a ton of people are mocking Franz to the Kings at 9 without actually officially reporting there’s been a promise there, but kind of alluding to the fact that that might be the case. I guess it’s also rare to see an explicit public report about a draft promise, and you usually do get this kind of widespread tacit understanding. Chad Ford was one of the original sources of the rumor when he was on Russillo’s podcast, but then he retracted it when he was on Locked on Kings this week and said there’s no promise and he didn’t intend to report that
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But it wasn’t really what Franz did as a one-on-one defender that was so revealing. It was more about how Juwan schemed him out of the game entirely (going under every pick, basically ignoring him off the ball) that was so eye opening. Barnes wasn’t willing or capable enough to make Michigan pay. He’s young, will have time to work on his jumper, and has all sorts of potential so he’s very clearly a lottery/top ten pick. But it gives me pause too when you start talking top five for Barnes like Vecenie mocks him here.
(Agreed with the comments above that you shouldn’t base your evaluation on any one game, but it seems most people agree he’ll struggle to score in the half court until he develops a reliable jumper. Michigan just had the scheme and personnel to make that abundantly clear.)
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If that good, suredly he must have been on the B10 All-Defensive Team.
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Yeah what a joke lol. Michigan has had some weird snubs for that team. Wasn’t Matthews left off too or something?
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Re: Barnes, being able to take him out the way Juwan did would be a lot more of a concern if he was expected to be a primary creator. But he’s 6’7’’ wo shoes w a 9’0’’ standing reach.
So I see a guy who will play a ton of defense, rip and run w the best of them, pass from the perimeter, and eventually bulk up into a very mobile hi IQ 5. That’s prob not a star but you’re not expecting a lot of star potential outside the top 2-3 anyway. He doesn’t need to shoot or be a primary creator to get there.
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Also, Sam is great but he adjusts for age poorly and doesn’t upweight FT% enough. Both of those things together explain why he’s into guys like Duarte and Mitchell relative to consensus and is relatively meh on Franz.
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Hmm you think he’ll play the 5 in the NBA? Not sure I see that given his size/build even by today’s standards, but that would certainly mitigate his shooting concerns a decent amount. But if he’s playing on the wing, he’s not going to be effective in an off-ball role if he can’t shoot.
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I get that Barnes drools upside and that’s what the NBA values more than anything. Getting a 6-9 facilitator and defender that maybe develops on offense is going to get you drafted high. I also get that one game against Michigan shouldn’t alter draft position too much.
But he shot 28% on less than 1.5 threes per game. He shot just 62% on FTs and only took about 2.5 per game. He only grabbed 2.5 boards per game. I don’t care much about his 10ppg and I do like his 4apg…but I feel like I’ve seen this story before with not just Simmons but also Michael Carter-Williams. I think Barnes is going to carve out a nice career as a bench guy who plays defense, brings energy helps your 2nd team, etc…though I’m not sure what position he’s playing for you and you’ll have to surround him with shooters.
If I had a pick in the middle of the first round I’ll roll the dice and see if I can teach him to shoot.
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To me it’s less about upside, at minimum he’s a terror on defense and a smart player on offense. That portends high floor, and his shooing adds a high ceiling. His counting stats are low because of slow pace and limited minutes, but he was a good offensive player this year. Great passer, insanely long. Easily a top 10 guy based on that in the average draft
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Probably in the average draft. Agreed. Colin I see what you are going for as well. But when you start applying all these filters, i.e. teams happy with a wing that can’t shoot; teams looking for an undersized playmaking 5, etc. etc. etc. – that’s how players slide. Is not plug/play. Is a guy you around whom you need some specific pieces. Fit going to be more crucial than normal.
He has the small ball 5 reach and he’ll be 20 this season. He’s going to add a lot more athleticism and strength by the time he’s 24. Think unlocking that switching/playmaking is pretty dang valuable.
FTR, I don’t think you shouldn’t worry about his lack of shooting. And if you don’t see a 5, I get it. Hard to be an average wing w/ well below average shooting. Also, to your point re: size, Bam was 2 inches taller and 15 lbs at the same age. That’s not nothing, but don’t think it’s disqualifying either.
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I think KT is basically right. They aren’t “filters” bc most teams play a lot of styles and adapt readily to their personnel, but they are limitations on how valuable he can ever be. High floor meh ceiling is a good read.
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As is so often heard, ``every team can use a 40% shooting two-way wing’’, or whatever. You don’t hear the opposite, and for good reason. Teams are not looking for wings with broken shots. The players that break through despite that have special attributes, and Barnes projects to have some himself, but is still going to be a fit question for some teams
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Ha yeah everybody can use a top 50 player, agreed there. This draft will probably produce…1? of those?
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I see your point, but does Barnes want to be a small ball five?
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