I mean my main point was that there wasn’t much purpose in comparing them because they’d likely be playing together, not in competition. Poole has more on-ball game already than I thin one can expect Moody to have, but Moody’s frame and IQ make him a more formidable defender.
The following plot is the modeled expected BPM of a draft pick by pick number. BPM is “box score plus minus”. Which, as a reminder, takes everything a player does in box score stats and algorithmically converts that to their plus minus per 100 possessions. 0 is definitionally league average but there were only 90 players in the league who were at least that good per BPM. only ~50 were +2 or better and All Star caliber starts around 3.5.
The gist is, truly game changing talents are very, very difficult to find, after the 7th pick you shouldn’t expect to get a league average player and pretty much everybody after the 20th pick is going to be flirting with replacement level.
I was going to do something like “here’s how to think about trading for picks” or “this is the odds a pick becomes a star” but y’know what? This is pretty alright.
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This is total eyeball and I haven’t seen Moody all that much, but I believe in Poole’s jumper more than Moody. It would be almost impossible for Moody to have a better sense of what is / isn’t a good shot, but I always though JP’s jumper was mechanically very nice (and he had pro leg kicks at 19).
This is beautiful data. Thanks for sharing.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors package Wiseman and the 7th and 14th picks for another piece to play with Steph, Klay and Draymond.
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The Bulls adding Rodman made all the difference (mild shoutout to Spider Salley & Buddha Edwards too) between '95 and '96. They got someone to offset Horace Grant and even help a little on Shaq. Also, Nick Anderson was never quite the same for Orlando after missing 4 free throws at the end of Game 1 (IIRC) in the '95 Finals. Whether the Bulls were the best team ever is debatable but they were about as deep as most of the great teams before the league expansion of the late-80’s/early-90’s.
As long as Franz doesn’t get drafted by the Kings and then maybe Orlando I’m fine with Franz going damn near anywhere else in the top 20.
I know it won’t happen unless they trade up, but I want Franz to get drafted by the Nuggets. Imagine a starting line up of Jamal Murray, Franz, MPJ, Jokic, and whatever SG/SF type they want to start, or likely Aaron Gordon.
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Houston seems like a franchise intent on negating the benefits of what seems like a competent front office. That would probably stink too. Can’t recommend the Knicks to anyone in good conscience even now. Minnesota another disaster.
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I missed Minnesota. Yeah that’s a bad spot as well. I’m buying the Knicks with the new front office and young pieces on their roster. I’m confident they will land an all star or two in the next one or two free agency classes too.
I don’t hate Orlando but I think they already got multiple guys like Franz so I thought he’d be a bit redundant. Although him and Moe together would be awesome. A lot of these teams aren’t even considering him because of roster fit I’m just speaking in general about these organizations and how they develop and treat young players.
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There are a LOT of bad front offices in the lottery. Heck, even the Pistons are trying to shed that reputation too. I think they and the Knicks are on the rise. Another one I’d be skeptical of is the Bulls. They’ve had a lot of top picks in the last few years and still are sort of stuck being non-contenders and haven’t really turned those guys into what they had hoped they would be.
Still, the Kings have to be at the bottom and the one team no one should want to get drafted by. Those others (Magic, TWolves, Knicks, Rockets, etc.) aren’t good…but aren’t the multi-decade long dumpster fire of the Kings.
I think Weaver has earned the right due to his track record. He knows that the Pistons are in badly need of roster reconstruction for the long term build. So far, it’s looking good.
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Good for Isaiah Jackson. Love seeing Michigan kids doing well!
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Also true but more times than not it’s indicative of good things.
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Yeah ADP of Green Room invitees is way higher than those not invited.
How do they determine invites? Does anyone know?
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Updated Mock Draft from Sam Vecenie at The Athletic ($ paywall): 2021 NBA Mock Draft, post-Finals: Scottie Barnes in top five, possible trades, first-round wild cards – The Athletic
He has Franz going 9th to the Kings.
" The player: Wagner is an interesting 3-and-D prospect at 6-foot-9. His movement is terrific, with great lateral quickness. He can guard a variety of perimeter players on the ball, but his off-ball instincts are absolutely spectacular. He knows exactly where to be positionally, and his reactivity to get deflections is outstanding. The big question revolves around his shot, which comes and goes far too often. Sometimes, he looks like a legit 40 percent 3-point shooter in the future. Other times, he looks like a 30 percent guy and totally non-confident in the jumper mechanics. Whichever one he is will determine his career. If he becomes that high-level shooter, he’ll be a very high-level role player who starts. If he doesn’t, he’s more in the vein of his brother, Moritz, as an end-of-the-rotation guy.
The fit: Three things have consistently come up when discussing what the Kings are thinking with sources around the league. First, that they would love to take a bigger wing/forward. Second, that defense is important to them in this pick. And third, that analytics will play a bigger role here than in other situations league-wide, given Monte McNair’s background and ownership’s emphasis on being data-driven. Wagner is the guy that ticks all the boxes there as a 6-foot-9 player with real defensive acumen who is actually younger than quite a few of the one-and-dones in this class. This pick is also thought to have come up in trade discussions as the Kings look to compete for a playoff spot next year."
Also…
Ayo 28
Bones Hyland 33
Joe Wieskamp 35
Isaiah Todd 41
Josh Christopher 42 (to the Pistons!)
Livers 47 (to Toronto)
Aaron Henry 53
Luka Garza 58
Vecenie also has a 140 page Draft Guide if you have an Athletic subscription. On his big board he has Franz at 14, Livers at 52, and Chaundee Brown at 91.
On Livers: Livers is just a terrific spot shooter. If you leave him open, he’s going to absolutely make them. If you contest at all, he still will make a lot of them. Throw that in with what was solid, steady on-ball defense in college, and it’s easy to see why teams see Livers as a 3-and-D potential wing who can help on both ends of the floor. But there’s concern about what else he brings to the table. He’s a very limited type of player right now.
He needs to improve as a passer and playmaker and improve as a defender for me to be particularly interested. Plus, the injury history and his current injury leaves additional concern. Despite Livers being a really interesting wing shooter, I would venture I’ll probably be on the lower end with where I have him as a lower-end two-way player.
On Chaundee: Brown is a typical 3-and-D, hard-working wing. With a 6-foot-9 wingspan, he has good measurables to be able to guard up and down the lineup. He does a good job on the ball on defense, using his athleticism to stay in front of his man and contest shots. Unsure if he’s particularly disruptive with his hands and doesn’t create action plays. He’s a plus defender, not an elite one. He’s not really a stopper, which is probably what he’d need to be to stick — unless you believe he’s an extremely high-level shooter.
Brown took a leap this past season with his 3-point efficiency, hitting about 42 percent from 3 and being a reliable catch-and-shoot player. Over 400 players took at least 75 catch-and-shoot attempts last season, and Brown finished 17th nationally in terms of efficiency. However, his 3-point mark this season was clearly an outlier from his past three years. Was it genuine skill improvement or was it a player who always has had high free-throw percentages coming through and turning into the kind of shooter he always should have been? Or was this just one good season? Those are key questions because Brown doesn’t do much else that particularly translates well to the next level.
He was a slasher in high school and does finish at the rim when he gets there. But getting there often is an issue because everything is in a straight-line drive, and he’s an OK athlete by the league’s standards. Never been a great distributor and doesn’t make many high-level reads. It’s a simple 3-and-D game. Brown needs to prove that he’s good at those other things to be effective in the NBA. He’s a summer-league invite for me and a player who I’d be happy to try to let earn a two-way deal.
I remain a bit skeptical of Scottie Barnes as a top-6 pick after what Wagner did to him in the tournament and after watching a no-shoot lanky point-forward named Ben Simmons struggle to find a role for his talented NBA team this season. Barnes feels like the type of guy you take in the teens for his potential and hope he figures it out and becomes an all-star…not the type of guy you take in the top few picks that you need to become an all star.
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But Ben Simmons is an All Star
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