“Differentiate from lottery peers” is an extremely high bar and believe me I think a lot of Franz. But I don’t think his pre-college background is much reason to grant him special status and say he’s simply not comparable to everybody else. Particularly when I’ve seen him play for 2 seasons in college.
Even really good college defenders like Deandre Hunter, for example, are not good defenders in the NBA their rookie year. JJJ was bad there early, Zion is still awful on D. It’s a lot to ask even of someone seasoned like Franz. It’s that idea that makes me think he doesn’t quite fit their window since their window is probably this year and the year after. Which is why I think they do everything they can to trade some picks and maybe pick Duarte
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I think maybe I’m missing the argument. I don’t know how Franz will do in the NBA, I just don’t think using his age to determine that makes very much sense given how much more experience has than basically anyone else who is 19 entering the draft.
I think what @colin is trying to say is that rookies = bad on defense and generally not good on average and the Warriors want good players right now
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I think Wagner can contribute off the bench for a contending team right away.
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Yeah, more or less though I don’t put any particular emphasis on D. I think it’s just that being starter-caliber in the NBA means being wildly good and most players lack at least something that age and/or experience provides them. In pure athletic terms, sprinters peak at something like age 24. In sports that are more of a mix of pure athleticism and skills based, you see later peaks as more reps add more and more to their skills. The ones that avoid injury keep getting better and better through their 20s and into their 30s. Once Franz gets into the NBA, those guys are the ones he has to be as good as. It’s a very tall order.
If Franz was already so good that he was going to immediately translate in the NBA, you’d probably see it in his counting stats or his plus minus or scouts would be saying WOW THIS GUY. Instead everyone agrees he’s a mid to late lottery guy. Information about his background is probably already included in their evaluations.
None of this is a knock on Franz. He’s clearly an excellent basketball player and I want him to succeed. It’s just that 1 in 10 young guys do it in year 1 so I’m not going to assume he will right away. Neither should the Warriors.
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Franz is unlikely to become a star immediately but he could mature into one after 5-6 years.
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Or hey maybe watching the Bulls has broken my brain.
Not sure we don’t have a little–rookies struggle and he’ll probably play only 20 mpg–and he’s more ready than most rookies and should play 20 mpg–going on.
Well the youngest players this past year in the NBA from the 2020 draft
Poku
Williams
Ball
Edwards
Hayes
Maledon
Ramsey
Stewart
Lewis Jr
Wiseman
Ramsey shouldn’t be in the discussion. Where do you think Wagner fits into that mix?? Not in the class of Wiseman/Williams/Ball/Edwards for sure, I am not huge on Hayes but I think he’s ahead of Wagner. Vassell is in that group who got some real good run.
In regards to Golden State I think Kerr is sick and tired of losing and will want to have a championship caliber team with Thompson back. Klay/Steph/Wiggins/Wiseman/Green have never played together and barring minute limitations for Thompson those guys are going to be playing a lot.
I have no idea but I think he’s played significantly more high level hoops than most of those guys.
If the Warriors want to get an impact guy I assume they are trading the pick.
I really am not trying to get into an argument about Wagner’s potential production, just that he’s way more experienced than basically anyone his age so I wouldn’t limit him based on age.
For my money, Wagner is best on a team that has primary creators/scorers where he can play a complementary game. I don’t watch nearly enough – any, if we’re being honest – NBA to know what teams that implies.
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I think a lot of people are overestimating Wagner’s role if he went to GSW. If he’s on the court with any of Curry, Thompson, Draymond, Poole, Wiggins, etc, he will certainly not have the ball in his hands often. Likely the least amount of all the perimeter players whether that is with the first or second unit. If he is just used strictly as a cutter and can knock down 35% of his perimeter shots, and his defense translates as expected, I think he could definitely contribute. Playing with any combination of Green, Looney, Wiggins, Thompson and Wiseman should make GSW pretty tough defensively in the 3-5 spots. Thompson, Wiggins and Green would likely handle many of the top wings while Franz can guard the worst or 2nd worst perimeter player and use his length and IQ to be disruptive off ball and in passing lanes. I really think he could be a pretty effective role player for GSW right away. I don’t think he or any rookie would take minutes from the top 7 or so returners, so just being solid is the key and I think Franz’s IQ and length would allow him to be just that compared to many other guys being linked to GSW. He or any rookie for that matter likely wouldn’t be putting up great counting stats, it’d be about covering the cracks that don’t really show up on the box score. I think Mitchell’s on ball defense would make him appealing, especially since Nico Mannion just doesn’t seem to be a good enough backup guard, but other than that I’m not sure I’d take anyone else if given the option of realistic targets available at 7. I don’t buy Kispert being up to snuff defensively, but if they want more high level shooting, I suppose he could be another good option.
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If anybody wants to futz around w the data themselves:
I scraped from here:
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I just don’t think it’s a slam dunk that he is a good defender or hits 35% of 3s this coming season. I used Deandre Hunter as an example, he was considered the best wing defender in college, then his rookie year he was atrocious defensively. Wiseman was so bad that when he got hurt the Warriors made a huge playoff push. Wagner could be ok, and I can see a world he can give them 20 rotation level minutes and be a real asset for them next year, but that’s the ceiling outcome and not the most likely. No team with championship aspirations wants to give any minutes to a rookie.
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Yep, that’s about where I’m at. I think the role @BP3 describes is pretty much exactly what I would, but there’s a decent chance he just doesn’t hack it in year 1 even w/ a limited role bc it happens a lot, even to really talented guys who eventually become great pros.
But if that’s the standard, are there any players at 7 that are immediately impact players on a playoff team? Seems like a high bar to meet. I think Franz can definitely play a role off the bench and he has a high IQ, which may be exactly what the Warriors are looking for since they are better than your normal lottery team, especially with Klay in the lineup.
No probably not! Which is why the Warriors probably shop it
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Not trying to rehash issues but it occurred to me that Ball is the only other 19yo with +3 years of high-level pro/college experience (to my recollection) between his bouncing around and playing pro since he was 16… didnt work out too poorly for him this year. Different caliber of player but i think there will be less shock factor for Franz
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Any team that ends up with Franz is going to be very happy. He’s not scratched his potential upside yet.
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I agree with this. I think he can catch on defensively quicker and that’s the best way to get him onto the court. I question how impactful his defensive can be if he defers on the offensive end. We saw that at Michigan and he will probably be around guys who hunt their shots more, better outside shooters etc… What would be 35% behind the arc for a guy who defers a lot?? A 3 point attempt every 2-3 games??
I think he ends up being a solid NBA player but unless he develops a better shot and then hunts the shot he will be limited imo.