For what it is worth, that Athletic article talks about how Green hasn’t actually shown much “create for others” so far - though he’s young. Likewise, it talked about how taking Kuminga basically means he’ll spend most of his first year in the G-league. While that makes total sense and he’s probably the logical person to pick at 5…pretty big bummer to have a top-5 pick that basically will not help you right away in your rebuilding. I get it and there’s nothing wrong with that - but when you’ve fought so hard to get a top pick and realize that the guy you might end up taking is so far away from helping? Just feels like a let-down.
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Fun thread on Flancer’s draft model output. FWIW, it loves Mobley. Like a lot of these models, they seem to overly prefer bigs. Having a replacement level specific to each position would probably help. Kind of surprised Franz doesn’t pop more, but maybe it’s just his model.
I’m assuming the message is that they trade out of the five spot.
If I am reading this right it seems like the highest floor belongs to Jaden Springer? that’s interesting
I genuinely can’t tell tbh. I think? it’s sorted by average wins. It’s hard to line up the 50th/75th/90th lines. The shiny app is maybe less interesting? But at least it’s easy to read. Can tell he’s got a 2 part model. First, he’s got P(NBA), which from what I can tell is “does he actually clear some low threshold for minutes in the NBA” and second there’s E[Wins Added|NBA], which is conditional on making the NBA, what do they do. Multiply those and you get the expected value.
Do we know what the inputs to this are (measurables, what college high/school stats, recruiting profile, etc)? This stuff is meaningless without understanding how it’s built. He doesn’t link to any sort of methodology in the twitter thread from what I saw.
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To clarify, I don’t think any of us are saying that Mobley isn’t a worthy top-5 pick and defensive specialist. I think we’re saying that for the Pistons, he isn’t our preference and the questions about his offense and physicality at the next level are the tie-breaker in our minds for ranking those top few prospects.
Personally, I don’t think you can call him a unicorn with his offensive game. Unicorns are guys like Durant, Jokic, Anthony Davis…people who are able to do special things at their size that aren’t expected and are very rare. Mobley is a great prospect, but he might not even be as close to a unicorn as Jaren Jackson - who’s been a very good, but not elite, NBA player.
I think the question is Green vs. Mobley as the second name on the board. I like Suggs a lot too, but he’s probably just behind those two with maybe a higher floor but lower ceiling.
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I’m familiar enough w/ typical inputs to these things and what the other stats Flancer puts together that I can guess. Would guess age, position, height, and college are all in there. Since Cade is way up there, I’m pretty sure he’s not using any of his advanced plus minus stats bc Cade was super meh according to those. So guessing it’s typical KenPom stats e.g. AST, TO, BLK, STL, FT, USG, etc. He says in the thread that he’s still putting together the finishing touches on it. I’ll guess he does a thread or a post w/ more methodology stuff.
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My thing is, today’s NBA is an offensive league. Sure it is nice to have an elite rim protecting/switchable big man, but unless you have a go to scorer that can get you 30 when you need it, you likely aren’t going anywhere in the postseason. Can Green or Suggs be that? Obviously we don’t know. But I think it’s probably more likely that they are high level scorers in the league than Mobley. If you can convince me that Mobley has AD offensive upside then obviously I’m all the way on board, but if he’s a defensive guy who isn’t likely to average 20+ PPG then he just has to be further down the list for the Pistons. Pistons haven’t had a go-to scorer in ages. They need to find that since they won’t be getting any All-Star FAs to sign here.
The best teams that are built around bigs rather than guards or wings have exceptional offensive bigs (Embiid, Jokic, AD). It’s just an offensive league. You gotta be able to get buckets
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If you click anywhere in here you’ll see something within a minute that wows you…
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I like Jalen Green and he certainly has high volume, three-level scoring potential – I could see him becoming an All-Star. And sure, Bradley Beal or Zach LaVine are fair high-end comp’s (I hate comp’s) if everything goes right, but what is his realistic median outcome? How does he impact the game besides scoring? What do you make of his playmaking feel? How much does he hurt you defensively? What do you think of his ability to process the game?
He has a lot more questions than Mobley, imo. What we tend to do when projecting players is assume that all goes well in their development – that they will reach 90th %ile+ outcomes. Rarely does that happen, so you have to ask yourself what happens if the development isn’t perfect and what skills do they have to fall back on?
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I do like that other way of looking at a prospect…the floor instead of the ceiling. Obviously picking in the top-5 we want to focus on the highest ceiling because that’s why you’re trying to change your franchise. I would agree with you that Mobley has a higher floor than Green. If Green is a bust, he’ll wash out. If Mobley is a bust, he could still play defense.
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He’s shown great passing vision the few times I’ve seen him choose to playmake. I think his vision + handling provide him great upside in that department. Hear he’s decent defensively, can’t imagine he’d be a particularly bad defender.
The comments praising Mobley are valid, he’s got a lot of potential. I just really like Green because he’s going to be an electric scorer right off the bat. We don’t know how 17 ppg in the Gleague translates to the NBA but he’s at least proven his ability against grown men night in night out.
Myself as well. You MUST have that bucket getter, and that guy is just so often found in the top 3. You can’t get a Mobley outside the top 3 either, but you can find lesser players who bring a lot of that defensive package. Green looks like that bucketgetter to me. Mobley v Suggs? At that point I’m not so sure, but to me it looks like Green over Mobley.
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I would agree that Mobley has a higher floor than basically anyone other Cunningham, and I think there is little chance he’s not a pretty good player. At this stage in the draft (top 3), though, teams generally aren’t drafting floors they’re drafting ceilings, and I tend to think Green’s is higher.
As I said - I think Mobley is probably an All-Star Caliber player, but it’s the elite wings/“Heliocentric” guys who are driving titles in the last decade plus, not centers.
If I’m drafting 3rd, I’m happily taking Mobley. 2nd? I don’t think I would.
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I’m fine with long term rebuilding. If it means another chance of getting elite talent in 2022 draft, I’m all for it. You want elite talents in order to contend.
Well said.
Mobley’s ceiling is really high.
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As I said - the last center to be the best player on a title team was Tim Duncan - and it wasn’t Duncan’s last title either. I think that should be considered here.
Depends on if you consider AD the Lakers’ center (and their best player last year.) Also, I think Mobley is more a 4-5 than true center.