2020-21 Roster Speculation

After listening to the most recent Moving Screen… I definitely think there’s a larger point within Dylan and BQ’s commentary at the end that Juwan’s tendency has been towards a traditional 5 man. Similarly, the way that Nunez got burn early last year was clearly a philosophical decision by Juwan. We debate a lot on here about what lineups we would like if we were the coach but if I were to try to crawl into Juwan’s head, isn’t the most likely starting lineup based on what we know about his tendencies:

Brooks-Wagner-Livers-Johns-Davis?

That doesn’t appeal to me stylistically but is probably the most accurate expression of the tendencies Juwan showed us (proven reliability, at least 1 traditional big) albeit in a small sample size.

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I don’t really see that as a logical lineup, especially with Johns starting at the four. Livers was elite last year at the four. Not sure why you would mess with a good thing.

If Brown is eligible, I think he’s clearly a better player than Johns. So you have to decide a) start Brown or b) start Smith and move everyone else to their natural positions (Eli 2, Franz 3, Livers 4).

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I heard that too, but I really don’t think we can read too much into Juwan’s philosophy based upon last year given the personnel he was dealing with. I would think just about any coach was going to play a senior Teske 30 minutes a game and Davis turned into a servicable bench piece. Without having Livers, Johns was needed exclusively at the 4, so he wasn’t an option at the 5.

What I’m saying is lets wait to see what this year brings before we put that label on Juwan.

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This is definitely true. Especially because we saw Johns at the five before Livers injury, and never after.

I just don’t think I’m generally as high on the sort of impact Johns could have as a starting four as maybe some others. Serviceable depth there? Yeah, but starting ahead of other options on the roster given who is on it? Don’t really see it. That’s part of why I’m intrigued by him focusing on playing center.

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Totally agree with you it doesn’t seem logical but I also didn’t see the logic behind any of the Teske-Davis or Teske-Castleton minutes last year that Juwan seemed to feel fine about.

But even those were injury/situation induced. Michigan only had 1 guy who could play PF for most of the Big Ten season. And the depth on the wing was Adiren Nunez.

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One reason we didn’t see a lot of small ball five is that you have Teske commanding over 30 minutes/game.

If we’re going by last year, we definitely shouldn’t expect to see Wagner at the 2 except out of necessity. Same with Livers at the 3. He used DDJ or Brooks far more at the 3 than Livers.

Why do you say that? He started Franz at the two and Isaiah at the three when Eli was out against Wisconsin.

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Wasn’t that a one game failed experiment? Also didn’t it come at a time when DeJulius was struggling?

Livers was Juwan’s 3rd choice at the 3 when Wagner was out. Other than the Wisconsin game, I can barely remember seeing only one guard on the floor with Wagner, not even when DDJ had that terrible game at Nebraska.

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My point is that you never saw one guard on the floor because Michigan’s two most reliable players played the 1 and the 2 and they led the team in minutes per game. Michigan’s only perimeter backup who was playable also was a 1/2 combo.

For most of the Big Ten season, Michigan was incredibly short on depth at the four when Livers was out so there was no need to push people down the lineup.

The one time Michigan didn’t have Eli, Juwan started Franz and Livers at those spots.

In every other situation, Franz and Livers just always stuck to their natural positions when healthy, where they rarely left the court.

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I agree. And it is why I don’t agree with all the speculation out there about lineups where Brooks is your primary PG, Wagner or Brown are playing mostly SG, Johns is playing 30mpg at PF/C. I think most minutes will be with everyone in their natural spots. The exceptions for a few minutes per game will try to leverage players with versatility to cover up lack of depth/talent:

  • PG - We hope Smith is great, Brooks gets the rest, maybe Jackson gets some 5mpg run
  • SG - This is Brooks when he’s not at PG. All other minutes get filled by a less-than-ideal Wagner/Brown option
  • SF - Wagner mostly, Brown and/or Livers as needed
  • PF - Livers mostly, Brown and/or Johns as needed (maybe Williams)
  • C - Totally fluid between Johns, Dickinson, Davis.

Presuming Brown is eligible to play this season, forget exact positions for a moment (there’s enough flexibility) Brooks-Brown-Johns-Livers-Wagner will combine to average around 145mpg this season. And tough to see a rotation where a healthy Brooks, Brown, Livers, or Wagner don’t each average at least 30mpg.

Whether Michigan goes “big” or “small” depends on how Smith/Jackson and Dickinson/Davis perform.

If Dickinson/Davis can give a quality 30mpg at Center, then Johns plays more “4” and Brown or Wagner are playing a bunch of “2” freeing up Brooks for more time at “1”
If Smith/Jackson can give a quality 30mpg at Point Guard, then Brooks sees most of his time at the “2” and Livers is almost exclusively a “4” meaning the staff would need to play Johns more at small ball “5” to get him on the court.
If neither happen then Nunez or Williams become regulars in the rotation with Brooks spending significant time at the “1” and Johns spending significant time at small ball “5”

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I’d probably put Brown more in the 25-30 range. Eli, Livers and Franz in the 30-35 range.

I don’t think you necessarily want to “free” Brooks up to play more one, because he’s not a one and doesn’t really have true PG skills.

The big question is just how good is Mike Smith. The lineups where Eli Brooks is the only ball handling threat are a bit scary.

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I concur and I’ve always been a staunch believer in Eli even during his lowest moments (very happy for him and us he fought through) but it would not be the best way to get the best version of him.

He has his moments and I’ve seen times where he has good vision or understands how to create angles for guys or get guys open but the handle just isn’t there imo. Smith just seems to be way ahead there and in a few other ways needed to be this teams top pg.

I recommend the interview with Mike Smith on Brendan Quinn’s other podcast The Beat. It’s very entertaining and there’s actually a lot of informative tidbits as well.

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Anyone got a recap?

It’s mostly a lot of color, detail and anecdotes. No major revelations but he’s a great interview and it was nice to get a vivid picture of what his last four months has been like.

Worth thowing on if you go for a drive or a walk.

Generic questions about players got generic answers but good insight into who Mike Smith is. Super sharp kid and he doesn’t lack confidence.

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