Somewhat strangely, if Bajema can log minutes at the 3, he could indirectly impact the minutes that you need from Dickinson and Davis. If Livers can give you 30 minutes at the 4 without being needed to play SF when Franz is off the floor, then Johns is freed up to play more small ball 5 minutes.
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But Wade only joined the team in January. He got two months on the scout team.
I’m rooting for him to succeed, but he’s a walkon who scored 28 points in his season at a lower tier league. I think it’s fair to keep expectations low.
I’ve been trying to think of a team that had some success to compare next year’s Michigan team to in light of the roster changes. I’ve settled on a best case scenario of 2014-2015 Michigan State, there are some weird similarities.
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MSU graduated senior high-usage players are PG and C in Appling/Payne (X/Teske)
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NBA talent left and resulted in the SG spot being empty on paper (Gary Harris)
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They had a trio of key returning rotation players, two of whom had to make massive jumps in usage to make the team successful:
- Trice went from 17.2% usage rate with 7 PPG and 1 APG to an all conference type player with 26.4% USG and 15/5. Eli Brooks was at 18.5% USG and 10/2 last year for reference.
- Valentine went from 8/6/4 per game on 17% usage up to 15/6/4 on 24% usage. Franz was 11/5/1 last year on 19% usage. I doubt he will be as versatile of a playmaker as Valentine was, but I think he could make his own jump like this if tasked with more primary ball handling duties.
- Dawson returned and was basically asked to play the same role he had his whole career. Livers would slot in here I believe.
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They had a mid-major transfer in at guard (Forbes) who became a knock down shooter. He averaged 8 PPG on 43% from three. Mike Smith will have to do more I’m guessing as a ball handler, but he could come close to 40% shooting as a best-case.
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They had only two other returning rotation players at all who were both frontcourt guys that played larger off the bench roles (Costello and Schilling). Johns and Davis would likely see a similar minutes increase, Johns could be a larger factor than either of MSU’s guys.
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They had a 4 man freshman class (Marvin Clark, Tum Tum, Javon Bess and Alvin Ellis) that played a combined total of 42 MPG, with guys in and out of the starting lineup. I think the Michigan class will be asked for similar impact.
That MSU team went 21-10 in the regular season then got hot in March. Only had two guys stick in the NBA, but obviously Denzel became a national player of the year. If Eli and Franz are capable of another big step up from what we saw last year, I could see similar results happening from this team. Obviously that’s a big if, especially in the assists department.
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I can see scenarios where a Smith/Zeb PG combo averages 17 and 6 per game. Efficiency is the key factor in how they get there, but that is something to work with.
I don’t know if this is a hot take or not, but coronavirus is going to have a much more negative impact on our roster than Christopher and Todd not coming here. Going to be really hard for players to develop this offseason with the inability to be in Camp Sanderson, open gyms etc. We could really use bumps from Johns and Bajema but that’s going to be very difficult now.
True but at least all teams have to deal with that. Not all teams suffer the biggest recruiting upset of all time (per 247), and lose a 5-star who has been committed for months, all in the span on 12 hours.
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Bajema I agree but Johns taking a jump has nothing to do with going through Camp Sanderson. Guy has all the ability in the world just needs to figure out how to use it consistently.
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I think this is pretty accurate. My tweaks assume an optimistic mini-breakout for Bajema and a little more time needed for Jackson and Dickinson to acclimate:
Smith 25 Brooks 10 Jackson/Wade 5
Brooks 25 Bajema 15
Wagner 35 Nunez/Howard 5
Johns 20 Williams 20
Davis 20 Johns 10 Dickinson 10
I really think people are sleeping on Hunter. Dude will obviously be limited on defense but so is Davis. Imo he’ll be the day one starter at the 5.
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It’s not just Camp Sanderson. It’s open gyms and just getting reps against live competition.
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Hard for me not to think we revert to a more traditional 8 to 9 man rotation hard to see many minutes for Nunez unless Bajema really struggles to develop.
PG = Smith 25/Jackson 10/Brook 5
SG = Brooks 25/Bajema 10/Wagner 5
SF = Wagner 25/Johns 10/Williams 5
PF = Livers 30/Johns 10
C = Davis 20/Dickinson 20
May eventually start but I see him coming off the bench early season just to get to know the system.
I think Johns is more likely to see time at the 5 spot than the 3.
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In this offense the 3 and 4 are essentially the same, it was more about rotation and what line ups work in my mind. That said if he has gets even a little better from behind the arc it would make him far more versatile on both ends of the floor.
From our team? JK. Kinda.
I would have to think that with Davis and Dickinson’s defensive weaknesses, we’ll see Johns playing the 5 on defense.
Juwan’s system capitalizes on bigs with post moves. That’s Hunter’s bread and butter.
The 3 & 4 were very similar under JB. I’m not sure that is still the case with Howard.
In any event, we have already seen Johns at the 5 and we will absolutely need him there against mobile 5’s next season as Davis and Dickinson are likely going to be defensively liabilities on the perimeter.
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Just throwing out that Illini twitter is suddenly tearing their hair out over a rumor Adam Miller isn’t signing tomorrow.
Would be hilarious to me to hear Michigan fans embrace Adam miller after deciding JC was a diva
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