2019 - PG - DJ Carton (OSU Commit)


#302

Was Nik even remotely on the NBA draft radar after his freshman year? That’s the comparison. You’re saying scouts already know who the draft prospects are and Poole isn’t one of them. And I’m saying three guys at Michigan have gone from “not on the draft radar” to squarely on it in one year. And Poole is certainly further along than Caris was as a freshman.


#303

Isn’t the best players will play the right message to send the team?

I can’t see freshmen have to wait their turn or seniors can’t lose their jobs as messages Beilein would ever send. Part of his job is to manage team chemistry. Dealing with starters getting passed by can be tricky, but playing favorites is a tried and true way to blow it up.

None of that is to say Carton would win the starting job over X. Your first two reasons are valid. I’m interested to see the progress Simpson makes.


#304

Seniority over talent seems like a very Izzo-esque move to me


#305

If Carton projects himself as a two-year player, then coming to Michigan is ideal, he can play behind X his freshman season, learning the game and sharpen his skills, plays solid 15+ minutes a game, and gets ready to take over the 2nd year. If Poole does not return, then he will have chance to play a lot more minutes, or even start at 2G.

If he believes that he belongs to the world of Trae young or Sexton, then the pasture IS greener in OSU and IU. BUT Trae and Sexton would’ve started over senior X, and having someone like X on your team can give you much needed rests in the games and take off much pressure defensively.


#306

If DJ is a better individual player than Z but Z runs the team better then experience (in the offense) will start most likely. Either way DJ will play a ton. Kids talented. Plus going up against Z every day in practice should make him a better player.


#307

Sure, if there was ever a situation where Carton was just simply better, I think he would start.

I’m just saying that scenario, at least at the start of the year, is about 99% unlikely to happen.

By March, who knows? Let’s say Carton is pretty good defensively and an unstoppable force on offense. I could see him, at a minimum, being the guy who finishes out certain games, or plays extended minutes when he’s hot.


#308

In this program, I’m not sure your statement is true.

Trae started off super hot. By late January, his efficiency was terrible and his team was mired in a terrible slump.

Sexton was essentially his whole team. Like Young.

Who knows where X will be in two years. He’s already a defensive star, and I would have to think his offense will continue to improve. Again, if he’s scoring 12-13 a game, I don’t think he’s headed to the bench for a freshman. For example, I don’t think Trae or Sexton would have started last year over a senior Derrick Walton.

But again, I don’t know that it matters, as Carton will play a ton no matter what. It will just force JB to get creative with two guard lineups, which he’s done plenty in his career.


#309

More on this:

Per 40 minutes as freshmen:

Nik: 14.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .463 from the floor, .440 from three.

Caris: 8.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, .315 from the floor, .326 from three.

Poole: 19.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .429 from the floor, .370 from three.

Poole is arguably the furthest along of the three. Nik had better shooting percentages as a freshman, but on that team, he certainly got better looks that JP got this year.

I think there are a lot of reasons to believe Poole is headed for a big year, and will be a guy who generates some real NBA interest in the near future.


#310

Senior Derrick Walton is a very optimistic projection for senior Zavier Simpson. D Walt was the best player on the floor pretty much every game for a month and a half.

Do you think freshman Trey Burke would start over senior Zavier Simpson? I do unless Z makes massive improvements to his offensive game which I do not expect.


#311

No offense - Nik got double the minutes on a better team.

Something had to drive that beyond per minute counting stats.


#312

My belief is that simpson starts the games at pg. His lock down defense, stunting the opposing team out of the gate is just too important to replace. That was Livers’ role this past season as well. If D.J. comes in and is ready to massively contribute he could come off the bench and split time, perhaps evenly with simpson or less than evenly. Also, we shouldnt write off Simpson’s offense yet even if his 3 ball has struggled. D.J. would have the keys to the offense as a sophomore if he doesnt go pro.


#313

Of course he did - the only thing standing in his way was senior Matt Vogrich, who had played very few minutes during his first three years.

Poole had Matthews and MAAR ahead of him this year, both of whom were very good, and the team itself won the Big Ten tourney and went to the national championship game.

You think Nik would have carved out a bigger role for himself on this team than Jordan did? I really doubt it.


#314

No, I don’t think freshman Burke would start over senior Simpson.

And I also think freshman Carton should be really happy if he’s as good as freshman Burke.

I also do expect Simpson to improve a lot offensively. His three point shot will never be a thing of beauty, but I do think his mid-range game off the dribble can and will improve.

We’ll see, of course.


#315

That’s fair, lots of unknowns. I guess I don’t anticipate as much improvement out of Z as others in regards to shot creation and shooting. And I just don’t see it as that unrealistic for a likely McDonald’s all American point guard to start over a 28% three point shooter and a 51% free throw shooter in a Beilein offense, regardless of how good he is defensively.


#316

I agree this is a likely outcome. Or you could spin Livers starting over Duncan as a case of a freshman with higher potential playing over a senior that was a proven commodity limited in certain areas.

I could see both scenarios happening but I just disagree with anyone saying Carton absolutely won’t start as a freshman with certainty. He may just be a top 10 recruit in the country by the time he comes to campus and who knows how quickly he could pick up the offense.


#317

No dog in this fight, but McGary did eventually overtake Morgan for playing time. Much different comparison given you can play two centers a lot of minutes. However, it at least shows talent overtook seniority. (I love Zavier though, not a shot at him at all. Just the point.)


#318

Good point. Speaks to the reality that the best players will play. Totally possible freshman Carton overtakes Z at some point as well if he shows out that he’s better.


#319

I wouldn’t underestimate Cartons defensive abilities. Z is much better at playing passing lanes and facilitating deflections than straight up lock down.

Carton is bigger, stronger, and much more athletic than Z. Plus he loves the defensive side of the court. Won’t be prone to as many straight line bull rushes from bigger opponents either.


#320

You guys, DJ hasn’t even committed yet.


#321

Seriously - this is my thought process too. I’d like to hear he commits before trying to figure out where he will get playing time over a year from now. I understand the playing time discussion is semi-relevant to his recruitment between OSU, Indiana, and UM, but one bridge at a time please.