2019 - PG - DJ Carton (OSU Commit)


#282

Well said and very level-headed


#283

Carton, DeJulius, Brooks, Poole, Nunez, Iggy, Johns, Livers, Wilson, Castleton would be such a ridiculous 3 year recruiting cycle. Hard not to get excited about that core.


#284

It really would.

And if we follow up this season’s incredible run with yet another one next March, I have to think we’ll be in great shape to land some talented 2020 recruits, too.


#285

How about Coach Yak killing it on the recruiting trail. He was instrumental in landing Castleton and Wilson and now is playing a key role in the Carton recruitment. Couple that with all the pub he got for the defensive transformation and I have to think he’s a real rising star among assistants.


#286

Glad that the Beilein contracts talks had an undercurrent of bumping the assistants’ salaries as well. Seems like Yaklich’s stock is definitely bullish, and preemptive goodwill is something people remember down the road.


#287

To me, the timing of Carton expediting his timeline is the biggest sign he’s paying attention and respecting what the UM staff has requested, imo.

This coincedes with Beverley taking a visit last week (a threat to take DJ’s spot but at the same time, not really), Webb’s mention of timeline being the only barrier between the two parties and DOT’s post that Beilein isnt playing around and will push (in a professional, respectful manner) a decision or else current and new prospects will be given more priority.

In a matter of a week Carton goes from reporting an October decision to a couple weeks from now…maybe even a week. It screams Beilein to me. Im sure the family is tired of the process, the pressure and growing attention but announcing in mid-July is a huge shift out of nowhere.

Depth Chart @ the 1 & 2 Carton’s Freshman Yr-

OSU- CJ Jackson, CJWalker, Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington

IU- Robert Phinisee, Devonte Green, Al Durham and maybe Anderson because theyre overloaded at the 3/4.

UM- Xavier Simpson, Dave DeJulius, Jordan Poole, Eli Brooks

If you go over each roster, they all have depth in the backcourt. If you tell me OSU is selling him on starting ASAP, theyre completely overloading their wing positions. I didnt even include kids like Aherns/Jallow for OSU. I would assume this would be similar to UM’s response if confronted with depth concerns. There is very little difference.

IU has the least amount of depth at the 2, but still two experienced PG’s that have been in the system. Why would Carton excellerate his timeline by months for IU (with no current commits or shortage of space?). Also, I havent read or heard one insider of any kind talk up IU and its been 10+ days after his visit. I heard he had a great visit but nothing else and that the visit was matched (and surpassed according to some) by UM.

I just have a hard time seeing anywhere but UM. Just trying to read the tea leaves. :slight_smile:


#288

Yep. Everything points to Michigan. And our depth chart really isn’t that scary. I like Dejulius as a prospect, but it would be strange for a 5 star top 20 player to be concerned about him. DJ will have to be a bench player as a freshman most likely, but Xavier and Poole will probably both be gone by his sophomore year and he should be penciled in for a 30+ minute role then.


#289

Well, Xavier will be gone for sure, and by the time Carton is a sophomore, Poole would be a senior - I doubt he’s here that long.

I think Carton will play a lot right away and probably start as a sophomore, with DDJ and Brooks seeing a lot of minutes at the two when Carton is in there.


#290

But as others have said, though perhaps a “bench” player, he will have the opportunity to be more than that and will certainly, if he proves it, play a prominent role off the bench.

I’m certain DJ would come in expecting to compete for the starting PG spot. Beilein will not promise him more than the opportunity to compete, unlike some other coaches.

DJ seems like such a level headed, down to earth kid that I’m pretty sure he sees the opportunity that he would have at Michigan, and how it would help him reach his ultimate goal of the NBA. I also think he appreciates Coach B’s honesty. I’m guessing he’s also pretty confident in his ability to compete.


#291

Heres an article that i think sums up pretty well why Carton might pick IU.

That being said my crystal ball pick on my main sites version of the crystal ball is staying on michigan


#292

Indiana is definitely putting together some impressive talent, and obviously back in the day (1970s, 1980s and early 1990s), it was an elite program. It seems like Archie Miller has the program in good shape to become one of the top teams in the Big Ten again. I’d love to land Carton, but I couldn’t blame him for picking IU or OSU. I do think, all things considered, Michigan is the best program of the three right now, especially coming off a title game appearance, returning a lot of key guys, and bringing in a really good 2018 class. But I have no doubt IU and OSU will be strong in the years to come. (And I always welcome the idea of some other teams who can start handing Sparty some losses).


#293

I guess I’d just say that, not knowing anything, that IF Carton ends up a top 20-ish recruit, I would be shocked if his intention today was to play more than 2 years in college.

That said, as much as I loved X last year, and think he provides a ton of value on defense (and hopefully more on offense), I think that if Carton is as good as advertised, our PG that can’t score outside 2 feet may not be able to keep him at bay (without further development).

I’m not saying this to insult X - just that it’s e tiredly possible he’s not the best option despite being a senior.


#294

We all appreciate the “Duke wannabes” quote.


#295

I think you’re strongly underestimating many things.

First, it takes time to learn the Michigan offense. X will have a three year head start on DJ there.

Second, X is a great defensive player. A senior point guard who scores 12-13 a game (I think X is capable of that in two years), and who is a lockdown defender, is more valuable than a freshman who can score 15 but is just an average defender.

Third, team chemistry. Let’s assume X starts all year this year (which seems very likely) and the team has another strong season. There’s no way a senior in that position is losing his starting role. That sends the exact wrong message to the rest of the team.

But none of this is all that important - Carton won’t start at the point, but he’ll play a ton.


#296

With all due respect, I think it’s hard to argue that X, DDJ, and Carton can/will co-exist with all “playing a lot”, especially if Poole is here for a third year - which you have done.

Something has to give. Maybe it’s not X. Maybe Carton doesn’t come. I don’t know!

The reason I bring it up: Carton won’t come here if he doesn’t see an opportunity for significant early playing time. He can ONLY get that playing time at the expense of existing options - Simpson, DeJulius, Brooks.


#297

I have doubts about Poole being here for a third year. If he blows up, which seems very possible, I think he turns pro.

If not, I think Carton would play over DDJ and Brooks, not X.


#298

Yeah I mean obviously anything is possible. There are exceptions, obviously, but the scouting industry at large does a pretty good job ID’ing pro prospects (if you look at the top 15 guys on 24/7 from this last class, it’s a pretty good stand-in for who was drafted in the lottery with the except of Tre Duvall and the kid who dropped out of Western Kentucky).

Poole is by and large not on the radar of this crew, and only warranted limited playing time last year. I’m not saying he won’t be successful, but I think this board tends to over-state his pro prospects - especially his immediate ones.


#299

You could say the same for Nik and Caris after their freshmen years, and D.J. Wilson too. Poole had some big moments last year, and his playing time was limited because we had two talented, experienced guys at the 2/3.


#300

It’s not just a Michigan-fan bias.

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/27/nba-draft-2019-prospect-rankings-big-board?

A lot of people have seen this movie multiple times.


#301

I mean, Nik played 30 minutes a game on he National runner-up and started all of them, so I don’t see much of a comp. DJ literally missed his season. I’ll give you Caris…but he stayed 4 years.