2016 Point Guard Recruiting (Xavier Simpson)

Recruiting
541
Seems pretty clear to me that we believe Thornton is a one-and-done player, and we have been prioritizing Winston for the past few months. Now, of course, we need to GET Winston. But if we do, I think the strategy is sound for two reasons: (1) I'm not convinced we'll have a good enough roster to win a national title with a freshman Thornton (who, in all likelihood, still wouldn't start over a senior Walton); and (2) I think a sophomore Winston - especially if he's joined by two other stud sophomore scoring options (any of Battle, Langford, Towns, Hughes, Rowan), will be a better player than a freshman Thornton.

Moreover, I think the coaching staff prefers two years of Winston to one year of Thornton, and then having to recruit and break in a new freshman PG for 2017.

If the only piece we were missing in 2016 was an elite PG - and we were in the “rent a freshman point guard for one year” mindset - I would absolutely want Thornton. But that doesn’t seem to me the case.

Winston not visiting yesterday tells me all I need to know with him. We’ll be seeing him for 4 years in Spartan green.

Why do you say that? Do we even know why he didn’t visit? He’s been to our campus a ton already, so I’m not sure I get the absolute pessimism there.

Not really pessimism, more of a historical trend. Generally speaking kids that visit here multiple times, seem to have sincere interest, and have a prolonged recruitment, don’t end up coming here. Bluiett, Coleman, Amir Williams, Booker, Kennard…you see where this ends up

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Amir Williams?

543
Amir Williams?

Yes, visited multiple times, told JB weeks before his decision that he was sincerely interested in UM (Even JB was suspicious), proceeded to visit again…and chose OSU. I remember the Sam Webb report like it was yesterday

544

Is there any real evidence to support the opinion that Winston prefers MSU? I assume that he does, but only because we haven’t beaten Izzo head-to-head for an in-state recruit (or out-of-state, I suppose) in forever. The guy is deified in Michigan.

I have seen a few MSU fans post on MSU forums that Winston favors Michigan. I am curious if anyone knows anything or if everyone is guessing.

545
Is there any real evidence to support the opinion that Winston prefers MSU? I assume that he does, but only because we haven't beaten Izzo head-to-head for an in-state recruit (or out-of-state, I suppose) in forever. The guy is deified in Michigan.

I have seen a few MSU fans post on MSU forums that Winston favors Michigan. I am curious if anyone knows anything or if everyone is guessing.

It is just implied that considering his parents are employed at MSU, and grew up a fan of them that MSU would be tough to beat.

546
Amir Williams?

Yes, visited multiple times, told JB weeks before his decision that he was sincerely interested in UM (Even JB was suspicious), proceeded to visit again…and chose OSU. I remember the Sam Webb report like it was yesterday

Amir Williams was never coming here and that’s probably for the best. Just don’t think that’s one to chalk up as some big recruiting miss. Just think it’s odd to lump everyone together into the same bucket.

Kam Chatman would qualify as a kid that had a prolonged recruitment and ended up choosing Michigan.

Each recruitment is very different and you aren’t going to get every kid, but you can’t say you didn’t get every kid for the same reason.

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Is there any real evidence to support the opinion that Winston prefers MSU? I assume that he does, but only because we haven't beaten Izzo head-to-head for an in-state recruit (or out-of-state, I suppose) in forever. The guy is deified in Michigan.

I have seen a few MSU fans post on MSU forums that Winston favors Michigan. I am curious if anyone knows anything or if everyone is guessing.

It is just implied that considering his parents are employed at MSU, and grew up a fan of them that MSU would be tough to beat.

They will be very tough to beat on this one, but you stay actively involved until he says he isn’t interested any more. No brainer. Things happen, and this kid can play.

548
Amir Williams?

Yes, visited multiple times, told JB weeks before his decision that he was sincerely interested in UM (Even JB was suspicious), proceeded to visit again…and chose OSU. I remember the Sam Webb report like it was yesterday

Amir Williams was never coming here and that’s probably for the best. Just don’t think that’s one to chalk up as some big recruiting miss. Just think it’s odd to lump everyone together into the same bucket.

Kam Chatman would qualify as a kid that had a prolonged recruitment and ended up choosing Michigan.

Each recruitment is very different and you aren’t going to get every kid, but you can’t say you didn’t get every kid for the same reason.

Never claimed it was for the same reason, just pointing out that recruits taking multiple visits to UM generally doesn’t yield positive results. In fact, your take on Chatman pretty much confirms the opposite - in other words how many times did Chatman visit? But he still committed…

549
Is there any real evidence to support the opinion that Winston prefers MSU? I assume that he does, but only because we haven't beaten Izzo head-to-head for an in-state recruit (or out-of-state, I suppose) in forever. The guy is deified in Michigan.

I have seen a few MSU fans post on MSU forums that Winston favors Michigan. I am curious if anyone knows anything or if everyone is guessing.

It is just implied that considering his parents are employed at MSU, and grew up a fan of them that MSU would be tough to beat.

He did not grow up a Michigan State fan and only his mom works for state. Publicly he has no favorite.

550

MattD - what am I missing? Walton will still be around in 2016, so why would MAAR be our only ballhandler?

As far as “prolonged recruitments,” we recruited Hardaway, Stauskas, McGary, Walton, Hatch, Irvin, Donnal and Doyle all for a long time, and same with Chatman. Chatman visited twice - once for the camp, another time on his OV for a football game. For a kid from Portland, that shows some dedication IMO.

I know it doesn’t fit with your anti-JB mantra, but again, most of the guys we missed on in 2014 walked into the starting lineup at the school they committed to - Blackmon, Booker, Blueitt, etc. When those guys committed in the fall of 2013, no one had any clue Stauskas would blow up like he did and leave after two years. The Michigan depth chart at wing was Stauskas, Levert, and Irvin - pretty daunting. At the four - where everyone (rightfully) assumed Robinson III would leave early - we landed Chatman.

The 2015 class? Kennard picked Duke, Brunson no doubt wanted to step into a starting role and wasn’t going to be able to do that with Walton still here, and I think the Coleman ship sailed after he waited to commit and we got Robinson. You can debate the merits of that all you like, but it seems like that’s what happened. Davis was always headed out of state - didn’t pick MSU either. And Dozier went with South Carolina, where he has strong family history, also spurning UNC, Louisville, and Georgetown.

There’s no doubt we’ve had some huge misses, but I think there are rational explanations for most of them. There’s no question playing time will be available come 2016-2017, though, so we’ll need to get some elite talents. If we wound up with a class of Winston, one of Battle/Langford, and Towns, to join Teske, I’d be very happy.

551

You claimed we could wait until 17 to get a PG. Walton will be gone, apparently that’s what you are missing genius

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What does “wait until 17” mean to you? Walton’s last year will be 2016. If we “wait until 17,” that means we’ll have a new PG in 2017. So yes, we can indeed wait until 2017 to get a PG. Ideally, yes, we would get Winston in 2016. But your argument - that if we wait until 2017 to land a PG, we will only have MAAR - is not accurate.

553

Again, let’s clarify - Walton is the class of 2013. He graduates in the spring of 2017. The class of 2017 starts school in the fall of 2017. So if we take a 2017 PG, he will be a freshman when MAAR is a senior.

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Someone who knows the family and has known Cassius from childhood told me that he thought he would eventually pick Michigan. While he is currently undecided, I think that Michigan is right there with MSU.

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What does "wait until 17" mean to you? Walton's last year will be 2016. If we "wait until 17," that means we'll have a new PG in 2017. So yes, we can indeed wait until 2017 to get a PG. Ideally, yes, we would get Winston in 2016. But your argument - that if we wait until 2017 to land a PG, we will only have MAAR - is not accurate.

So it’s 100% the incoming 17 PG won’t redshirt? Glad to know you can confirm such things so far in advance

556
Seems pretty clear to me that we believe Thornton is a one-and-done player, and we have been prioritizing Winston for the past few months. Now, of course, we need to GET Winston. But if we do, I think the strategy is sound for two reasons: (1) I'm not convinced we'll have a good enough roster to win a national title with a freshman Thornton (who, in all likelihood, still wouldn't start over a senior Walton); and (2) I think a sophomore Winston - especially if he's joined by two other stud sophomore scoring options (any of Battle, Langford, Towns, Hughes, Rowan), will be a better player than a freshman Thornton.

Moreover, I think the coaching staff prefers two years of Winston to one year of Thornton, and then having to recruit and break in a new freshman PG for 2017.

If the only piece we were missing in 2016 was an elite PG - and we were in the “rent a freshman point guard for one year” mindset - I would absolutely want Thornton. But that doesn’t seem to me the case.

Winston not visiting yesterday tells me all I need to know with him. We’ll be seeing him for 4 years in Spartan green.

Why do you say that? Do we even know why he didn’t visit? He’s been to our campus a ton already, so I’m not sure I get the absolute pessimism there.

Not really pessimism, more of a historical trend. Generally speaking kids that visit here multiple times, seem to have sincere interest, and have a prolonged recruitment, don’t end up coming here. Bluiett, Coleman, Amir Williams, Booker, Kennard…you see where this ends up

If you want to see a historical trend that is fine. But each recruitment is different. I’m not saying we get Winston. I’m just saying I don’t see why him not visiting yesterday means he goes to Sparty.

557
Seems pretty clear to me that we believe Thornton is a one-and-done player, and we have been prioritizing Winston for the past few months. Now, of course, we need to GET Winston. But if we do, I think the strategy is sound for two reasons: (1) I'm not convinced we'll have a good enough roster to win a national title with a freshman Thornton (who, in all likelihood, still wouldn't start over a senior Walton); and (2) I think a sophomore Winston - especially if he's joined by two other stud sophomore scoring options (any of Battle, Langford, Towns, Hughes, Rowan), will be a better player than a freshman Thornton.

Moreover, I think the coaching staff prefers two years of Winston to one year of Thornton, and then having to recruit and break in a new freshman PG for 2017.

If the only piece we were missing in 2016 was an elite PG - and we were in the “rent a freshman point guard for one year” mindset - I would absolutely want Thornton. But that doesn’t seem to me the case.

Winston not visiting yesterday tells me all I need to know with him. We’ll be seeing him for 4 years in Spartan green.

Why do you say that? Do we even know why he didn’t visit? He’s been to our campus a ton already, so I’m not sure I get the absolute pessimism there.

Not really pessimism, more of a historical trend. Generally speaking kids that visit here multiple times, seem to have sincere interest, and have a prolonged recruitment, don’t end up coming here. Bluiett, Coleman, Amir Williams, Booker, Kennard…you see where this ends up

If you want to see a historical trend that is fine. But each recruitment is different. I’m not saying we get Winston. I’m just saying I don’t see why him not visiting yesterday means he goes to Sparty.

I never claimed he was going to MSU. I simply said that visiting multiple times doesn’t mean he is leaning toward UM, or that we have a realistic chance, as evidenced by historical trends.

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Someone who knows the family and has known Cassius from childhood told me that he thought he would eventually pick Michigan. While he is currently undecided, I think that Michigan is right there with MSU.

Thanks for sharing. I sure hope we can get him.
My fear is that if we miss on Winston, we won’t get anyone at all.
I hope either they’re confident on Winston and/or Langford or have a good plan B to start identifying the next step.

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Dylan - you think the staff would give Hyron Edwards another look if things don’t go according to plan with the 16 recruits? The kid can’t shoot, but he sure can penetrate. I’m thinking package deal with Jefferson might not be such a bad idea. Would rather have Edwards than be stuck with nothing at all come 17

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Dylan - you think the staff would give Hyron Edwards another look if things don't go according to plan with the 16 recruits? The kid can't shoot, but he sure can penetrate. I'm thinking package deal with Jefferson might not be such a bad idea. Would rather have Edwards than be stuck with nothing at all come 17

Timing-wise, how could they? I have seen nothing to indicate Winston, Langford, Battle, etc. are deciding before the '15 spring signing period.

Plus, it appears that Edwards has legit offers from Purdue and IU. I’m not sure that we could swoop in in the 11th hour and land him.