Matt, I don’t think anyone should feel sorry for Coach Beilein because we’re losing a lot of players early to the NBA. You correctly suggest it would be myopic for us to think we are the only program impacted by it.
With that said, as I’ve illustrated before, the reality is that many other top programs (I gave you examples of Syracuse this year, UK two years ago, Indiana last year, and UNC after their most recent title) have faced similar rebuilding situations and have missed the tourney.
I think there is a big difference between saying “we don’t have any talent” and “the guys we have are going to take a little while to develop.” Personally, I was guilty of being too optimistic about how quickly guys like Irvin and Chatman could take on big roles. Similarly, I thought Caris was ready to be a star this year, but he’s not.
I still think all our top guys have plenty of talent (Walton, Chatman, Caris, Irvin), but they are not ready this season to contend for a Big Ten title. Additionally, I’ve seen plenty of improvement from Donnal in the past two games, and Doyle was good tonight too (albeit against weak competition). So I do think both those guys will eventually be pretty good.
The dilemma here is patience. People expect a top 10 team every year, and when it doesn’t happen, they get upset. The reality is this - Beilein’s teams from the past two years were extremely remarkable because they were so young and still won at a very impressive clip.
When you start a team with two freshmen (Doyle, Chatman), two sophomores (Irvin, Walton), and one junior (Caris), the issue shouldn’t be whether the team is great right now, the issue should be whether that core group of guys can and will improve enough that in a year or two, they are capable of achieving great things.
As far as recruiting, clearly we had a great 2012 class and, at least on paper, another very strong 2013 class (don’t forget Hatch was a nice part of that class before the plane crash). The last two classes haven’t been as good, though again, from this current class I think both Chatman and Doyle will develop into very good players, and I’m not ready to write off Wilson yet either.
I also think playing time is an issue with recruits. From the 2014 class, guys like Booker and Blackmon saw an immediate path to playing time at UK and Indiana. When they committed, no one had any idea Stauskas would blow up last year and leave early. Similarly, even for 2015, a kid like Jalen Brunson no doubt saw Walton as an entrenched starter.
In any event, 2016 is a huge year to start replenishing star power. Playing time will be available, and the team already has plenty of role players (Robinson, Dawkins, MAAR). At this rate, the core group of Walton, Chatman and Irvin will all still be here, but we need that next stud PG, that next stud two guard, and a wing scorer (hopefully Towns) to add to Teske.
In some respects, getting Winston (or a Ramsey or Goodin) might actually be best for the long term success of the program, as Thornton is probably a one and done guy.
In short, I can live with the misses in 2014 and 2015 as long as we bring in some stars in 2016.
