2016 Point Guard Recruiting (Xavier Simpson)

Recruiting
341

93Grad, it’s interesting that you bring up UConn. Your statement might have been true under Calhoun - we’ll see under Ollie. Of course, Calhoun got hit with recruiting violations how many times?

But, if like MattD you don’t want to acknowledge the seedy side of recruiting, and the reality that Michigan can’t and won’t swim in those waters anymore, no problem.

I’m not even sure why this is such an issue. In 2011, we shared a Big Ten title starting Novak, Stu and Morgan - three guys who no one in the Big Ten recruited.

These days, those who have completely forgotten where we were as a program bemoan the fact that we have “no talent” because we “only” have guys like Walton (top 40), Irvin (5 star), Levert (first round pick at some point), Donnal (top 100), Chatman (top 25), and Wilson (top 100) on the team.

The reality is this - I, and others, were overly optimistic about how quickly this group of guys could progress. We don’t lack talent. What we lack are guys who were ready to step in and be impact players right this second.

And frankly, right now, one of our biggest problems is just making open shots. And I don’t think anyone could have accurately predicted that before the year started.

I am confident that ultimately (perhaps even next year), the core group of this roster (Irvin, Walton, Levert if he stays, Donnal, Doyle, Chatman) will contend for Big Ten titles and have the ability to make deep tourney runs. We were spoiled when it happened within two years with Burke, Hardaway and the great class in 2012/2013.

I come back to this - JB and staff have shown great ability to develop and improve players. Most UM fans see that. So wherever the team is today (and, it’s ugly at the moment), there is no reason to realistically believe we’ll be stuck in the same rut forever.

Case in point - 2010. We had a terrible year. Coming off a tourney appearance, we went 16-17. Awful. The next year, after losing Sims and Manny - we make the tourney.

342
Define "win"

It’s not like we’re NOT recruiting well.

Walton was a Top 10 PG
Irvin was a 5 Star on Rivals I believe
Chatman was a 5 Star on Scout and believed to be headed to Arizona
Levert…well…we hit a homerun there with a 1st round draft pick

We didn’t put anyone in the draft for YEARS then we toss out DMo, Burke, Mitch, Stauskas, Glenn…

DJ and Donnal were Top 100 players.

UConn’s coming off a National Title season and they’re sitting at 4-4.
Kentucky, followed up their National Title season by missing the NCAA and getting bumped in the 1st round of NIT.

We lost a bunch of players this year. Growing pains.

Recruiting is a what have you done for me lately business. Most of the guys you mention were signed years ago. Chatman, Wilson and Donnal all appear to have been ranked way too high or are major late bloomers. In either case, we simply have not replaced the talent lost Over the last couple years in either the 2014 or 2015 classes and 2016 looks like it could easily be another swing and miss year. That is a problem no matter how good the coaches are at developing talent.

Also you are once again comparing apples to hand grenades. Michigan is not Uconn or Kentucky. When they have a down year it is simply that, a down year, because they have the recruiting chops to go out and reload every year or two.

JB and his staff have not yet proven the same. If they land some big time guys in 2016 that will help, but we are a long way from that.

How do you not see the glaring fallacy with this angle? Michigan is recruiting as well as most top 10-15 programs the past few years. The problem is, if you call it a problem, is that Beilein is usually an absurd amount of early entrants to the NBA. There are very few programs that could sustain their success while losing NBA talent year after year.

343

No way in hell we have recruited like a top 10-15 program in 14 and 15, that is categorically false. No excuses, replenish the departures

344
Define "win"

It’s not like we’re NOT recruiting well.

Walton was a Top 10 PG
Irvin was a 5 Star on Rivals I believe
Chatman was a 5 Star on Scout and believed to be headed to Arizona
Levert…well…we hit a homerun there with a 1st round draft pick

We didn’t put anyone in the draft for YEARS then we toss out DMo, Burke, Mitch, Stauskas, Glenn…

DJ and Donnal were Top 100 players.

UConn’s coming off a National Title season and they’re sitting at 4-4.
Kentucky, followed up their National Title season by missing the NCAA and getting bumped in the 1st round of NIT.

We lost a bunch of players this year. Growing pains.

Recruiting is a what have you done for me lately business. Most of the guys you mention were signed years ago. Chatman, Wilson and Donnal all appear to have been ranked way too high or are major late bloomers. In either case, we simply have not replaced the talent lost Over the last couple years in either the 2014 or 2015 classes and 2016 looks like it could easily be another swing and miss year. That is a problem no matter how good the coaches are at developing talent.

93Grad, it's interesting that you bring up UConn. Your statement might have been true under Calhoun - we'll see under Ollie. Of course, Calhoun got hit with recruiting violations how many times?

But, if like MattD you don’t want to acknowledge the seedy side of recruiting, and the reality that Michigan can’t and won’t swim in those waters anymore, no problem.

I’m not even sure why this is such an issue. In 2011, we shared a Big Ten title starting Novak, Stu and Morgan - three guys who no one in the Big Ten recruited.

These days, those who have completely forgotten where we were as a program bemoan the fact that we have “no talent” because we “only” have guys like Walton (top 40), Irvin (5 star), Levert (first round pick at some point), Donnal (top 100), Chatman (top 25), and Wilson (top 100) on the team.

The reality is this - I, and others, were overly optimistic about how quickly this group of guys could progress. We don’t lack talent. What we lack are guys who were ready to step in and be impact players right this second.

And frankly, right now, one of our biggest problems is just making open shots. And I don’t think anyone could have accurately predicted that before the year started.

I am confident that ultimately (perhaps even next year), the core group of this roster (Irvin, Walton, Levert if he stays, Donnal, Doyle, Chatman) will contend for Big Ten titles and have the ability to make deep tourney runs. We were spoiled when it happened within two years with Burke, Hardaway and the great class in 2012/2013.

I come back to this - JB and staff have shown great ability to develop and improve players. Most UM fans see that. So wherever the team is today (and, it’s ugly at the moment), there is no reason to realistically believe we’ll be stuck in the same rut forever.

Case in point - 2010. We had a terrible year. Coming off a tourney appearance, we went 16-17. Awful. The next year, after losing Sims and Manny - we make the tourney.

I’ve likened this team to the 09/10 team many times. I would not be surprised to see next years team take a leap forward. I just don’t see us being an elite team going forward unless we can repeat the recruiting successes of the 2011-13 classes.

345

How do you not see the glaring fallacy with this angle? Michigan is recruiting as well as most top 10-15 programs the past few years. The problem is, if you call it a problem, is that Beilein is usually an absurd amount of early entrants to the NBA. There are very few programs that could sustain their success while losing NBA talent year after year.

The 2014-15 classes are not even close to top 10-15 and 2016 does not look much better. I love JB and what he has done, but this team will not compete with the top programs unless they recruit top players. Simple as that. What is even more alarming is that there has been zero recruiting bump form the improved on court results. In fact recruiting is going the opposite direction which I don’t quite understand.

346

Let’s let the dust settle on 2016 before ranking it, especially since only one of our top targets (Leaf) is off the board.

347
No way in hell we have recruited like a top 10-15 program in 14 and 15, that is categorically false. No excuses, replenish the departures

“Michigan is recruiting as well as most top 10-15 programs the past few years”

Read, please. 2012, 2013, 2014 have been top 10-15 easy. The 2015 class is a future class and surely even you know that.

Also, how many programs can replenish 5 NBA draft departures in two seasons? Less than 10, in my opinion.

348
No way in hell we have recruited like a top 10-15 program in 14 and 15, that is categorically false. No excuses, replenish the departures

“Michigan is recruiting as well as most top 10-15 programs the past few years”

Read, please. 2012, 2013, 2014 have been top 10-15 easy. The 2015 class is a future class and surely even you know that.

Also, how many programs can replenish 5 NBA draft departures in two seasons? Less than 10, in my opinion.

The 2015 class is over as far as top recruits. Surely you know that

349

Poor John Beilein, the guy just can’t catch a break. He gets punished for developing players. BS, he’s getting punished for not recruiting well enough in 14 and 15. Bottom line, JB has failed to make our previous on court success translate to signing day.

Here is the real question, how many teams have made a championship game and an elite 8 in back to back years and signed exactly 1 upper tier talent (who doesn’t even appear to be that at this point) during the next 2 recruiting cycles? That’s pitiful

350

posted this in the wrong thread:

And before you say “the 2014 isn’t a top 10-15 class”- that is obvious. I’m saying as a whole, the past 3 year window Michigan easily has been a top 10-15 recruiting program. If Beilein was as bad as other coaches at getting players to the NBA, this 2014/2015 would be loaded. Trey Burke was in the same class as Frank Kaminsky. Stauskas, McGary, and GRIII were in the same class as Dekker. Could you imagine if Beilein’s talent stayed on campus the way Bo Ryans does?

351

I’ll say this JB might be able to buy some time to develop because in my honest opinion Caris isn’t worthy of a 1st round pick. He’s a very good catch and shoot player, and very mediocre at all other things as a lead guard.

352

MattD, I realize you are terrible at math (and quite frankly anything that involves simple logic), but have you ever considered this:
A coach that develops top tier talent into early entrant NBA draft picks has to recruit a higher rate of those top tier players than a coach that retains similar talent?

Tom Izzo got 4 years out of top tier recruit Brandon Dawson.
John Beilein got 2 years out of top tier recruit GRIII.

Tom Izzo does not have to recruit another top tier talent to keep top tier talent on the roster.
John Beilein has to recruit another top tier recruit to fill that void.

It’s foolish to expect that type of replenishing if your team isn’t Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, or Kansas.

353
I'll say this JB might be able to buy some time to develop because in my honest opinion Caris isn't worthy of a 1st round pick. He's a very good catch and shoot player, and very mediocre at all other things as a lead guard.

Does Bo Ryan get more credit than John Beilein because he was unable to get Dekker and Kaminsky into the league until after their Jr and Sr seasons? Bo Ryan hasn’t had to deal with any attrition.

354

I think you are foolish if you think we are going to be a good team in the future without success on the recruiting trail…perhaps you haven’t considered that. You ca throw all the jabs you want, it still doesn’t change the fact that our staff has done a poor job recruiting, and our team issuffering for that very reason.

Really wish you would stop making excuses for JB and just deal with reality. All you do is complain that we lost too many players…it’s just an excuse. Recruit better and you have no worries. You handicap the team for low expectations and it’s nonsense

355
I think you are foolish if you think we are going to be a good team in the future without success on the recruiting trail........perhaps you haven't considered that. You ca throw all the jabs you want, it still doesn't change the fact that our staff has done a poor job recruiting, and our team issuffering for that very reason.

Really wish you would stop making excuses for JB and just deal with reality. All you do is complain that we lost too many players…it’s just an excuse. Recruit better and you have no worries. You handicap the team for low expectations and it’s nonsense

Holy cow. Again? For the 5th time, you are well aware of my criticisms of the current class and going forward. Why must you continue to pretend I said we are going to be successful with the 2014 and 2015 classes?

Like, seriously. Having a different opinion is one thing. Repeatedly ignoring what I actually said while continually lying about how I feel about the 2014 and 2015 is blatant trolling. I’m looking forward to the day you get the guestavo treatment.

356

And MattD, there is a difference between excuses and explanations. No other top 10-15 programs have had to deal with the amount of early-entrant attrition Beilein has. None. If Beilein was as bad at getting his players in to the league as those coaches, Michigan would be hanging more banners. Can you imagine if Beilein got to have Burke and Hardaway last year? Burke, Stauskas, LeVert, and McGary this year? Imagine how bad Wisconsin would be without Dekker or Kaminsky. Imagine how bad Michigan St. would be without Valentine or Dawson.

357
I'll say this JB might be able to buy some time to develop because in my honest opinion Caris isn't worthy of a 1st round pick. He's a very good catch and shoot player, and very mediocre at all other things as a lead guard.

Does Bo Ryan get more credit than John Beilein because he was unable to get Dekker and Kaminsky into the league until after their Jr and Sr seasons? Bo Ryan hasn’t had to deal with any attrition.

Here is your argument in a nutshell - let’s pout because life isn’t fair for JB…other coaches don’t have to deal with attrition so why should he?

Give me a damn break, that’s 6th grade nonsense. Guess what, life isn’t fair, that’s why you plan ahead. In this particular case that translates to recruiting better players in the event that you lose players to the extent your team doesn’t experience a drop off in production.

No matter what your logic is, there is simply no excuse. Our incoming personnel simply isn’t on the same stratosphere in terms of talent, and JB shoulders that blame. Recruit better and you don’t incur these problems. The man had 5 incoming recruits, and not a single player has made a significant impact…that isn’t going to cut it

358
No way in hell we have recruited like a top 10-15 program in 14 and 15, that is categorically false. No excuses, replenish the departures

“Michigan is recruiting as well as most top 10-15 programs the past few years”

Read, please. 2012, 2013, 2014 have been top 10-15 easy. The 2015 class is a future class and surely even you know that.

Also, how many programs can replenish 5 NBA draft departures in two seasons? Less than 10, in my opinion.

The 2015 class is over as far as top recruits. Surely you know that

There is a very small chance we still land Brown. Surely you know that. Regardless, 2015 is still considered a FUTURE class. I’m referring to past classes, hence stating past few years. Logic evades some of you.

359

Listen man, you sound like a kid crying over spilled milk. All you do is whine that poor JB just couldn’t possibly do anything to prevent this situation and it not fair…blah blah blah. Most people here realize that is utter BS. He simply didn’t get the job done on the recruiting trail and he is paying the price.

360
posted this in the wrong thread:

And before you say “the 2014 isn’t a top 10-15 class”- that is obvious. I’m saying as a whole, the past 3 year window Michigan easily has been a top 10-15 recruiting program. If Beilein was as bad as other coaches at getting players to the NBA, this 2014/2015 would be loaded. Trey Burke was in the same class as Frank Kaminsky. Stauskas, McGary, and GRIII were in the same class as Dekker. Could you imagine if Beilein’s talent stayed on campus the way Bo Ryans does?

What about the 2015 class? It is probably the worst ranked class JB has recruited. Meanwhile the 2016 class has fallen off a cliff. I understand this season being down given the talent departure. I don’t understand the recruiting getting worse.